Adviser: Get Out of Index Investing

By Kirk Shinkle

Posted: September 2, 2008

Give me some funds that accomplish that.
We like focused funds that only own 20 to 30 stocks because many big-name mutual funds are really closet index funds that own a broad swath of businesses. Nobody has 200 to 300 good ideas. Our staples are mostly value funds. We own Third Avenue Value fund (TAVFX) and Longleaf Partners fund (LLPFX). We own Julius Bear International Equity (JETIX) for our global exposure. They put more emphasis on eastern Europe than other funds we've been able to find.

Financials and energy make up an outsized part of most indexes. If you rode those down this year and moved out of indexing now, wouldn't you miss the recovery?
I wouldn't worry about missing the bounce on financials. That's an industry that's being fundamentally changed. If you look at their 2006 earnings, they look phony, to my way of thinking. Earnings were greatly transaction related, and we won't see that level of activity again. That put a lid on it. The returns on capital in banking and financial services we saw as recently as a year and a half ago we won't see for another 10 to 15 years. I wouldn't count on that industry recovering once these clouds pass. Energy is another story, but if you're concerned about missing the bounce in energy, then get out of the index and put it into energy.

What kind of cash position should you have?
We have about 17 percent cash equivalents—money markets and short-term treasuries. We also have a lot of money in short-term bond funds to preserve cash and get a little income.

15 minutes of fame

Ah yes, the active fund manager slash market timers mantra.. "this time its different".

None, I repeat, none of the talking heads know where all of this is going to end up. The best way to ride out the current madness is to make sure your assets are allocated to a combination of investment categories that are appropriate for your risk tolerance and your time horizon, and then diversify your holdings within those categories as broadly as possible. For the vast majority of individual investors, that means index funds and ETF's.

Trying to buy into the next hot corner of the market is speculation at best, and most of the time its just gambling.

DG of KY @ Sep 23, 2008 01:08:36 AM

Tough to beat the US STock Indexes - Most don't

Its tough to beat the indexes, most experts don't. One suggestion is to factor in global equities. But always track performance to know where you stand.

Picking stocks is less important than picking sectors. Like market timing, weighing sectors is where most people need help. Paying experts is fine as long as the mean performance, not the average beats the global stock indexes.

of PA @ Sep 05, 2008 23:23:59 PM

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