Will Mitt Romney's Vice Presidential Pick Make a Difference? >
Romney's VP Pick Will Be Low Risk, Low Reward
Mitt Romney's vice presidential choice will likely be low risk, low reward
May 30, 2012
About Lara Brown:
Lara M. Brown, Ph.D., is a political analyst based in Washington, D.C. and the author of Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants. She also served in President William J. Clinton’s administration at the U.S. Department of Education.
As a presidential nominee, Mitt Romney's most significant and scrutinized decision will surely occur when he announces his vice presidential selection. Even though vice presidential picks only marginally influence the choices voters make in November, commentators, scholars, and even to a limited extent the public have come to view the selection as a window into the nominee's temperament and decision-making competencies.
The choice also tends to convey a signal about the campaign's likely strategic direction in the homestretch. Is the nominee looking to shore up his partisan coalition or reach out to swing voters? What message is he trying to reinforce or perhaps, balance? Bill Clinton sought to reinforce his New Democrat credentials with his choice of Al Gore, whereas George W. Bush sought to balance his political dilettante reputation with Dick Cheney's gravitas and experience. Both nominees succeeded in selecting somewhat surprising, but substantively safe choices.
[See a collection of political cartoons on the 2012 campaign.]
While Wall Street Journal reporter Gerald Seib has rather condescendingly labeled the most-talked about Romney vice presidential prospect, Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, as the "un-Palin" (recall scholarly analyses, one and two, that show Palin had some success in rallying the GOP base and almost no effect on outcome of the election), he makes a broader point. And it is this: vice presidential picks shouldn't matter. This is not to say that they won't matter in terms of helping the nominee secure a state or reach out to a particular faction of one's party, but instead if the nominee's campaign is betting on their vice presidential pick to bring home the election, then they're likely already on their way to losing.
[See a collection of political cartoons on Sarah Palin.]
Given that Romney is facing an incumbent with an approval rating below 50 percent and the election is tracking close to a toss-up, it's important that he select a vanilla vice presidential nominee. He doesn't need to surprise anyone. He doesn't need a "Hail Mary." Romney needs only to sustain his "steady-as-she-blows" reputation and reinforce his "business = campaign = government managerial" message. Portman not only fits that bill, but also may be able to help Romney swing the key battleground state of Ohio to the Republicans.
Whomever Romney does select, the political fundamentals suggest that his decision will likely be low risk, low reward.
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- Other Arguments
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#111711
Yes — Mitt Romney's VP choice will give voters insight into his values and decision making abilities
FORD O'CONNELL, Republican Strategist, Conservative Activist, and Political Analyst
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#2504
Yes — Mitt Romney could reinforce his image as a deliberate decision maker
DAVID CROCKETT, Author of 'Running Against the Grain: How Opposition Candidates Win Presidential Elections'
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#3295
Yes — The VP pick is the first presidential decision a presumptive nominee makes
MICHAEL MARSHALL, Policy Adviser and Communications Director to Former Sen. Bob Dole
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#51024
No — The right running mate could bring Romney some soft benefits, but won't cinch election
JAMIE CHANDLER, Political Scientist at Hunter College
