Debate Club

Is Mitt Romney Vulnerable in the South? >

Don't Discount Mitt Romney in the South Just Yet

Don't discount Mitt Romney in the South just yet

March 7, 2012

About Ron Bonjean:

Ron Bonjean is a partner with Singer Bonjean Strategies and the owner of the Bonjean Company, both full service public affairs firms. He was chief of staff for the Senate Republican Conference under Sen. Jon Kyl.

The conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts and a Northeast Republican, might have a difficult time winning over southern states. However, one must look at the details in order to see that this is not necessarily the case.

Mitt Romney is estimated to have won at least 115 of delegate votes in southern states so far. Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas have a total of 382 delegates to allocate. Romney has a great opportunity to pick up delegates in these proportionally awarded states because none are winner take all. This means that Romney must do well in northern states such as Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Southern California in order to offset smaller gains in southern states.

[See pictures of the 2012 GOP candidates.]

When you break down what type of voters are pulling the lever for Romney, it is virtually the same in northern states. Conservative value voters break from Romney while he wins over more affluent voters who care about beating President Obama.

In terms of a general election, Romney still has the opportunity to win over the southern vote. While Newt Gingrich won Georgia, exit polls state that 81 percent of Republican primary voters would support a Republican nomination. This is likely the feeling in other southern states, where most Republicans would rather have a consensus around a general election candidate much sooner than later.

Tags:
2012 presidential election,
Mitt Romney
Other Arguments
#1

Yes — Romney's southern problem is a nomination phase phenomenon that will disappear shortly

DAVID CROCKETT, Author of 'Running Against the Grain: How Opposition Candidates Win Presidential Election'

#2
#3
#4
#6
#6

Yes — Mitt Romney will have to show courage to win over the South

KRYSTAL BALL, MSNBC Contributor and Former Democratic Nominee for Congress in the First District of Virginia

About Debate Club

A meeting of the sharpest minds on the day's most important topics, Debate Club brings in the best arguments and lets readers decide which is the most persuasive. Read the arguments, then vote. And be sure to check back often to see who has gotten the most support—and also to see what's being discussed now in the Debate Club.

Have ideas about what the Club should be debating? E-mail it to dclub@usnews.com.

You can also join the debate on Facebook or follow Debate Club on Twitter.

Advertisement
Cartoons
Thomas Jefferson Street Blog
IRS, AP and Benghazi Show the Failure of Obama's Big Government

Giving an inefficient organization like the IRS more responsibility makes it more likely to screw up, not better able to solve this nation’s problems.

Coburn Wants Oklahoma Tornado Aid Offset With Budget Cuts

Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn wants spending cuts before aid is sent to tornado victims in his own state.

Crowdfunding Zack Braff's Film And Robert Griffin's Gifts Is a Mistake

Rich people don't need donations from the public.

Poll Shows Americans Find Obama's IRS Story Barely Believable

There is still something fishy about the scandal at the IRS.

Do Benghazi, AP and IRS Scandals Reflect Obama’s Leadership Style?

It may be that a flawed leadership style is filtering down to the rest of the government.

In Marine Umbrella Incident, Republicans Still Deny Obama Is President

Umbrellagate is more proof that Obama's critics cannot acknowledge that he is, indeed, president.

Obama Isn't Nixon, but Needs More Friends in Washington

President Barack Obama needs to make more friends in Washington.

Republicans Can't Forget the Economy During Obama Scandals

Scandals provide good fodder for the GOP, but it can't forget about fixing unemployment.

Advertisement