Is Mitt Romney Vulnerable in the South? >
Don't Discount Mitt Romney in the South Just Yet
Don't discount Mitt Romney in the South just yet
March 7, 2012
About Ron Bonjean:
Ron Bonjean is a partner with Singer Bonjean Strategies and the owner of the Bonjean Company, both full service public affairs firms. He was chief of staff for the Senate Republican Conference under Sen. Jon Kyl.
The conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts and a Northeast Republican, might have a difficult time winning over southern states. However, one must look at the details in order to see that this is not necessarily the case.
Mitt Romney is estimated to have won at least 115 of delegate votes in southern states so far. Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas have a total of 382 delegates to allocate. Romney has a great opportunity to pick up delegates in these proportionally awarded states because none are winner take all. This means that Romney must do well in northern states such as Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Southern California in order to offset smaller gains in southern states.
[See pictures of the 2012 GOP candidates.]
When you break down what type of voters are pulling the lever for Romney, it is virtually the same in northern states. Conservative value voters break from Romney while he wins over more affluent voters who care about beating President Obama.
In terms of a general election, Romney still has the opportunity to win over the southern vote. While Newt Gingrich won Georgia, exit polls state that 81 percent of Republican primary voters would support a Republican nomination. This is likely the feeling in other southern states, where most Republicans would rather have a consensus around a general election candidate much sooner than later.
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- Other Arguments
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#1539
Yes — Romney's southern problem is a nomination phase phenomenon that will disappear shortly
DAVID CROCKETT, Author of 'Running Against the Grain: How Opposition Candidates Win Presidential Election'
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#2445
Yes — The South complicates things for Mitt Romney in both the primaries and against Barack Obama
JAMIE CHANDLER, Professor at Hunter College
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#34918
No — Romney's southern woes will last only through primary season, and even a single win will strengthen his image
FORD O'CONNELL, Republican Strategist, Conservative Activist, and Political Analyst
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#4304
Yes — Mitt Romney will have trouble in the South, but that doesn't necessarily doom him against Barack Obama
LARA BROWN, Professor at Villanova University
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#6410
Yes — The South knows conservatives, and Mitt Romney ain't one
JUDSON PHILLIPS, Founder of Tea Party Nation
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#639
Yes — Mitt Romney will have to show courage to win over the South
KRYSTAL BALL, MSNBC Contributor and Former Democratic Nominee for Congress in the First District of Virginia
