Has the Drawn-out Primary Crippled Romney's Chances Against Obama? >
Primary Process a Learning Experience for Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney has learned important lessons that will be pivotal against Obama
April 4, 2012
About Jamie Chandler:
Jamie P. Chandler is a political scientist at Hunter College in New York City, where he teaches courses on American politics, political parties and elections, public opinion, and political analysis.
The drawn-out primaries will prove to be a boon to the Romney campaign. They have forced him to develop effective strategies to mitigate glaring weaknesses that threaten his chances of beating President Obama. He's gained solid evidence that he's weak among rural voters, that it costs him a lot to win votes, and that GOP enthusiasm is much lower than it was in 2008. The more competitive primaries he faces, the more he'll be able to test out various strategies to find the ones that will bear the most fruit come fall.
[See a collection of political cartoons on Mitt Romney.]
The county-level results show that he's far too weak in the rural counties that drove President Bush's 2000 and 2004 victories. He's got to replicate this advantage if he wants to win in November. Competition provides him with a compelling incentive to work harder to attract them. He has to offset his strengths in metropolitan areas with solid mobilization plans to win them over. If the Wisconsin results are any indicator, he's got to do more.
[See pictures of Mitt Romney.]
Romney is also spending far too much to win votes. It costs him $28 per vote, compared to Santorum's $8. President Obama will out-fundraise him 3 to 1. Unless he cuts down this cost, he'll have exhausted his war chest, and end up in the same situation Bob Dole faced in 1996 against Bill Clinton. He'll be forced to rely on matching funds and unable to counter President Obama's aggressive advertising campaign.
There are about a million fewer Republicans voting this year. The county-level results give Romney visibility into the geography of lackluster turnout. A short primary cycle would have masked these results. The information helps Romney execute much more targeted mobilization strategies.
If anything, the long race will give the GOP an edge in November. The media coverage and candidate's presence in multiple states gives voters more information about the party's agenda. The GOP is getting out its message much earlier, so Republicans have a lot more time to use redundant communication techniques to reinforce it. This was not the case for John McCain in 2008. The party engaged too late in the season to give him an edge. Republicans should stop grumbling--in the long run they'll have a better chance of owning the White House come January 2013.
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- Other Arguments
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#15416
No — Primary process proves Mitt Romney can move previously unfriendly voters into his column
FORD O'CONNELL, Republican Strategist, Conservative Activist, and Political Analyst
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#31611
No — Romney has become stronger, and the GOP is not as divided as it seems
LARA BROWN, Author of 'Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants'
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#41111
No — President Obama still has a lot to worry about
RON BONJEAN, Former Chief of Staff for the Senate Republican Conference
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#41111
No — The GOP nomination battle will have little or no effect on Romney's race against the president
MICHAEL MARSHALL, Policy Adviser and Communications Director to former Sen. Bob Dole
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#61618
Yes — The drawn-out primary has forced Mitt Romney to take extreme positions
KRYSTAL BALL, MSNBC Contributor and former Democratic nominee for Congress
