Does the Supreme Court's Healthcare Ruling Help Obama? >
Healthcare Win Won't Prevent Other Political Pitfalls for Obama
Healthcare ruling will energize Obama's Democratic base but won't necessarily win over swing voters
June 28, 2012
About Jamie Chandler:
Jamie P. Chandler is a political scientist at Hunter College in New York City, where he teaches courses on American politics, political parties and elections, public opinion, and political analysis.
The Supreme Court's 5-4 decision on National Federation of Independent Business et al. v. Sebelius helps President Barack Obama's campaign in a big way. Fundraisers, partisans, and surrogates will throw him a lot of love over the coming weeks. He gets to add a strong value proposition slide to his PowerPoint collection.
But don't expect undecided voters to do the same. Their vote doesn't hinge on it. It pivots on jobs. Over the course of the last month, most of the major polls show that 55 percent of people rank the economy as their first priority, but only 14 percent do the same for healthcare. Big chunks of the public won't be jumping the Obama bandwagon post-haste.
[See editorial cartoons about healthcare.]
The president's supercharge comes from the refreshed narrative he can now convey to energize influential interests within the Democratic Party. He's going to get a lot of applause from partisans who have the power to mobilize voters during the general election. Not to mention more donors will be compelled to write checks at some of the big-ticket fundraising events he has scheduled in the coming weeks.
However, the looming Attorney General Eric Holder contempt vote could burst the president's 44 blue balloons. If Republicans prevail, they'll able to use the victory to change the political dialogue. It doesn't bode well now for the White House; several Democrats have already signaled they'll cast their vote in red ink.
The healthcare ruling gives the president's campaign bus a smooth stretch of road, but any one of the many political potholes coming up could force it to swerve onto the shoulder.
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- Other Arguments
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#18735
No — The presidential election will be a referendum on Obamacare
FORD O'CONNELL, Republican Strategist, Conservative Activist, and Political Analyst
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#27038
No — Republicans will organize around opposition to Obamacare, which means trouble for the president
STEPHANIE SLADE, Project Director at The Winston Group
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#42517
No — Republicans will oppose healthcare law as "the largest tax increase in history"
LARA BROWN, Author of 'Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants'
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#52121
No — Obamacare crystallizes the president's "nanny state" approach to government and the economy
MICHAEL MARSHALL, Communications Director to former Sen. Bob Dole
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#61820
Yes — The fact that the most conservative justice upheld the healthcare law is a major win for Obama
BRAD BANNON, President of Bannon Communications Research
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#71624
Yes — The president and the country win as the court upholds the Affordable Care Act
PETER FENN, Democratic Political Strategist
