Did Scott Walker's Recall Win Pave the Way for a Romney Victory? >
Too Soon to Tell Whether Scott Walker Paves the Way for Mitt Romney
While there is opportunity for Romney in Wisconsin, it's premature to call it a sure thing
June 6, 2012
The 2012 presidential election is still more than five months away. A lot can happen. And for all intents and purposes, the general election contest is just getting underway, so it is premature at best to say which way the political winds are blowing in key states. President Obama is probably a little ahead of the game nationally in terms of organization and efforts to energize his base, but the polls show a very closely divided electorate. Gallup's latest aggregation has the race at 46 to 46 percent, with a small number of undecided voters.
[See a collection of political cartoons on the 2012 campaign.]
Wisconsin has voted for a Democratic candidate for president in every election since 1984, but some of those wins have been narrow ones. The state is usually included in the list of swing states, and the evidence from the exit poll there yesterday is mixed. Wisconsinites voted for Scott Walker by 7 points in the recall, but they also said that if the election were held today, they would vote for Barack Obama by 7. Voters there said that Obama would do a better job than Romney in handling the economy. Bottom line, there is an opportunity for Romney to win the state, but it is no sure thing. Election results in June in a special recall election may not tell us much at all.
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- Other Arguments
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#16620
Yes — Scott Walker's win strengthens the case for Mitt Romney's free market approach
JOHN M. O'HARA, Author of 'A New American Tea Party'
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#25121
Yes — Scott Walker's recall win shows voters want the government to stand up to unions
JAMES SHERK, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation
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#33921
Yes — Victory over recall movement causes a wave of GOP enthusiasm that favors Mitt Romney
RON BONJEAN, Former Chief of Staff for the Senate Republican Conference
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#43721
Yes — The outcome of the recall election means Republicans will only intensify focus on Wisconsin
DOUGLAS SCHOEN, Democratic Campaign Consultant
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#52737
No — Walker's victory in Wisconsin doesn't mean Mitt Romney won't have to campaign or that Obama's in trouble
JAMIE CHANDLER, Political Scientist at Hunter College
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#7747
No — One silver lining for Democrats: Exit polls show Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney
KRYSTAL BALL, MSNBC Contributor and Former Democratic Nominee for Congress
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#8751
No — Barack Obama must convince voters that the conservative platform does not have the answer for the nation's most pressing problems
MICHAEL KAZIN, Author of 'American Dreamers: How the Left Changed a Nation'
