Too Soon to Tell Whether Scott Walker Paves the Way for Mitt Romney
While there is opportunity for Romney in Wisconsin, it's premature to call it a sure thing
June 6, 2012
The 2012 presidential election is still more than five months away. A lot can happen. And for all intents and purposes, the general election contest is just getting underway, so it is premature at best to say which way the political winds are blowing in key states. President Obama is probably a little ahead of the game nationally in terms of organization and efforts to energize his base, but the polls show a very closely divided electorate. Gallup's latest aggregation has the race at 46 to 46 percent, with a small number of undecided voters.
Wisconsin has voted for a Democratic candidate for president in every election since 1984, but some of those wins have been narrow ones. The state is usually included in the list of swing states, and the evidence from the exit poll there yesterday is mixed. Wisconsinites voted for Scott Walker by 7 points in the recall, but they also said that if the election were held today, they would vote for Barack Obama by 7. Voters there said that Obama would do a better job than Romney in handling the economy. Bottom line, there is an opportunity for Romney to win the state, but it is no sure thing. Election results in June in a special recall election may not tell us much at all.