Did Scott Walker's Recall Win Pave the Way for a Romney Victory? >
Republicans and Mitt Romney Will Feed Off Scott Walker Win
Victory over recall movement causes a wave of GOP enthusiasm that favors Mitt Romney
June 6, 2012
About Ron Bonjean:
Ron Bonjean is a partner with Singer Bonjean Strategies and the owner of the Bonjean Company, both full service public affairs firms. He was chief of staff for the Senate Republican Conference under Sen. Jon Kyl.
The Wisconsin win for Scott Walker has caused a tidal wave of enthusiasm for Republicans who believe that Mitt Romney now has a real chance to beat President Obama in the state. Wisconsin hasn't gone Republican since the days of Ronald Reagan, but that could change this election year.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker won the recount vote last night against Tom Barrett by 53.2-46.3 percent. It was a devastating blow to Democrats who poured millions of dollars into defeating the Republican governor. One month ago, campaign manager Jim Messina had said Wisconsin was trending toward the president. Yesterday, he was listing Wisconsin as "undecided." This is concerning to Democrats because the Obama campaign has said it must win over Wisconsin in order to win re-election.
[Photo Gallery: Wisconsin Voters Head to the Polls]
Worried about the results, Obama stayed away from the recall for fear of risking political capital. The campaign has used Wisconsin in every scenario for re-election. It will be interesting to see how Obama campaigns in a state he desperately needs in order to achieve 270 Electoral College votes.
Obama had a 51-44 percent edge over Romney in exit polling, and more Wisconsin voters said that the president would do a better job improving the economy and helping middle-class voters. However, independent voters, who made up a third of the recall electorate and typically decide close elections, voted for Walker 53-45 percent. The results of the recall make it clear that the Wisconsin Senate race will be very competitive for Democratic candidate Tammy Baldwin once the Republican primary is settled.
[See a collection of political cartoons on the 2012 campaign.]
Democrats now privately acknowledge that Republicans have a strong financial and grass-roots ground game in the state. The millions spent by the unions to defeat Walker were overtaken by a divisive primary leaving Democratic voters frustrated. State Republicans are energized, and in a battleground state, this is an important asset. Invigorated state Republicans and independent voters siding with Scott Walker will make it a hotly contested state in November.
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- Other Arguments
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#16620
Yes — Scott Walker's win strengthens the case for Mitt Romney's free market approach
JOHN M. O'HARA, Author of 'A New American Tea Party'
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#25121
Yes — Scott Walker's recall win shows voters want the government to stand up to unions
JAMES SHERK, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation
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#43721
Yes — The outcome of the recall election means Republicans will only intensify focus on Wisconsin
DOUGLAS SCHOEN, Democratic Campaign Consultant
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#52737
No — Walker's victory in Wisconsin doesn't mean Mitt Romney won't have to campaign or that Obama's in trouble
JAMIE CHANDLER, Political Scientist at Hunter College
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#61546
No — While there is opportunity for Romney in Wisconsin, it's premature to call it a sure thing
KARLYN BOWMAN, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
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#7747
No — One silver lining for Democrats: Exit polls show Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney
KRYSTAL BALL, MSNBC Contributor and Former Democratic Nominee for Congress
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#8751
No — Barack Obama must convince voters that the conservative platform does not have the answer for the nation's most pressing problems
MICHAEL KAZIN, Author of 'American Dreamers: How the Left Changed a Nation'
