Can Romney's Rivals Force Him Into a Brokered Convention? >
Rick Santorum Could Use Convention Influence to be Romney's VP Pick
A brokered convention is unlikely, but Santorum will still have a say
March 21, 2012
About Jamie Chandler:
Jamie P. Chandler is a political scientist at Hunter College in New York City, where he teaches courses on American politics, political parties and elections, public opinion, and political analysis.
Santorum doesn't have much of a chance of forcing a 'brokered convention.' But he could get the vice presidential nod. Don't expect the race to end anytime soon. It'll run right through Utah. The schedule over the next six weeks works in Romney's favor, and he'll pick up another 300 delegates by April 25th, but Santorum will continue to give him a run for his money.
It's important to clarify the meaning of "brokered convention." The term implies that intense, behind closed doors negotiations will take place if Romney doesn't hit the magic 1,114 delegates. It's a convention rule where if no one wins the first round nominating vote, the next round goes open. Delegates can vote for whomever they choose, and successive open rounds continue until there's a winner.
[Check out political cartoons about the 2012 GOP nominating race.]
There might be a second vote, and the 419 super delegates could affect the outcome, but there will be no deal making like the pre 1980s conventions. The rules have changed, and there are no party leaders with enough influence to decide the winner. Sarah Palin won't be a kingmaker. But there could be smoke-filled sidewalks--no smoking in public buildings.
Santorum has a better chance of forcing Romney to choose him as his running mate. And this could come regardless of whether or not he wins enough delegates. Santorum does well on the cheap; it costs him 3.3 times less per vote than Romney. He has won 3.9 million votes to date and spent inclusive of Super PAC contributions $112 million. Santorum has won 2.7 million and spent $22 million. That's $8 per vote versus Romney's $28.
[See pictures of Rick Santorum on the campaign trail.]
The party needs to recognize that it won't have solid chance of beating President Obama if it doesn't take balance the nomination needs of establishment and social conservative voters in its vice presidential ticket. Romney may choose some other social conservative, but Santorum has built so much political capital and name recognition, that it'll be difficult for Romney to rally support around someone new.
Santorum also wins rural areas that were pivotal in helping George W. Bush win the 2000 and 2004 elections. Romney beats Santorum in the urban counties, but these are areas were President Obama does best. Unless Romney finds some solid, fast way to win over country-voters, odds are he won't be the next president.
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- Other Arguments
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#16515
No — April primaries offer Mitt Romney a chance to end the talk for good
FORD O'CONNELL, Republican Strategist, Conservative Activist, and Political Analyst
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#32210
No — A brokered convention just won't happen--unless the GOP decides it wants to give President Obama a second term
LARA BROWN, Author of 'Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants'
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#41813
Yes — Mitt Romney, the human Etch A Sketch, is a liberal who must be stopped
JUDSON PHILLIPS, Founder of Tea Party Nation
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#51110
No — Delegate math and financial advantages should help Romney take the nomination
KRYSTAL BALL, MSNBC Contributor and Former Democratic Nominee for Congress
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#6815
No — Even in states where he might not win, Mitt Romney will take a share of the delegates
RON BONJEAN, Former Chief of Staff for the Senate Republican Conference
