Saturday, July 19, 2008

Money & Business

The Home Front by Alex Markels

Economists Kill the Buzz on Better Housing Data

May 16, 2008 01:55 PM ET | Luke Mullins | Permanent Link

With the apparent pleasure of a parking cop slipping a $50 ticket underneath your windshield wiper, a group of soul-killing economists is insisting that today's positive-looking housing data are in fact—you got it!—more bad news.

The Commerce Department announced today that April housing starts jumped a surprising 8.2 percent from the previous month. But don't reserve that party room at Benihana just yet, says Ian "The Cat Burglar of Dreams" Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics:

The headline increase in starts means nothing; it is all due to a rebound in the hugely volatile, but essentially trendless, multi-family sector, where starts plunged 35.1% in March and then jumped 36.0% in April.

Economists at Goldman Sachs, aka "the no fun zone," expressed similar sentiments:

"We do not [see] this report as a sign of a turn in the housing market, though some will doubtless view it as that. Instead, it looks to be a transitory turn as an abnormal fall last month is reversed."

Looks as if the housing market is so downtrodden that even good news is bad.

Tags: economics | housing market

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Reader Comments

lies and statistics

It really isn't yet a reversal because percentages of larger numbers are bigger than the very same percentage of the reduced number. ( 100 - 30% = 70 + 30% = 91) Then the numbers of starts is actually referring to apartments. Such a trend is actually away from home ownership and favors rental inventory and shows increased demand for such!

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Associate Editor Luke Mullins tracks the treacherous housing market and explains how to unload a five-bedroom McMansion or even find that dream home.

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