The Zogby Poll—Does it Mean Anything for John McCain and Barack Obama?
As Bonnie and Rob mentioned earlier, there's a lot of buzz about the new Zogby poll showing McCain ahead nationally by 5 points.
I don't put too much faith in the poll—if for no other reason than that national polls really don't mean anything.
As the last two elections should have made clear, the presidential race is not a national race. It's a collection of state races. And even then, only a handful of states really matter. Winning the "national" vote won't get you a cup of coffee—just ask Al Gore.
Yet while national polls may not mean much as a direct barometer of who's ahead in a presidential race, they can serve to energize (or deflate) a candidate's supporters—which in turn contributes to the degree to which they'll get involved. And in this respect, Zogby's poll is an obvious benefit to McCain. Tim Carney sums it up nicely for the Evans-Novak Political Report (item 3):
A Zogby poll showing McCain ahead by five points should not be taken to indicate he is the front-runner, but it certainly helps puncture the notion that Obama is way ahead.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain | polls
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electorial college
It would be much to expensive given inflation, even
with all the money looted by the Bushites, in the old time
dis-honored way, steal from the poor and give to the rich and richer. But the electors are affordable. Why don't more citizens vote? They are reduced to the hopeless reality, that their votes count for nothing. Stalin was not the first nor only, to remark, that the counting of votes, not the votes, that count.
If the people could be informed of the reality of not only what is coming down upon them and their childrens children, but of the past rape of their future, Perhaps, perhaps. Revolution is the only psth to save us, but the will of the people has been systematically
reduced to survival. Only when the bottom has finally reached, will the people find a leader, similar to the German experience
after the first world war. The blood that will be shed, if it were oil, could power the world for a week.
???
So what do the state by state polls say...oh yeah, RCP has McCain leading no toss up electoral college...funny you didn't mention that. No not really.
At least Zogby polls likely voters - the others just poll registered voters
polling registered voters means half your sample is meaningless because only about half of registered voters bother to vote in presidential elections. So, registered voter polls amount to not much more than a popularity contest, which, given his media profile, Obama would always win against McCain. If I wanted to skew a poll to favor Obama, that would be my first move - to poll registered, not likely, voters.
Only pay attention to likely voter polls - Zogby, Rasmussen, and a few others.
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