Is Barack Obama Really Underperforming in the Polls? Maybe Not
DENVER—I wrote last week about Barack Obama's inability to match in his polling numbers the generic gap that Unnamed Democrat enjoys over Unnamed Republican, suggesting a number of reasons for Obama's apparent weakness.
Catching up on reading and E-mails over the weekend, I came across another interesting theory, this from Gallup editor Jeff Jones: Maybe, he suggests, the expectation that Obama should benefit from the atmosphere is misplaced.
Jones looks at the five presidential elections in the modern polling era in which the incumbent was not running, checking to see whether the outcomes matched the expectations given political atmosphere (specifically popularity of the incumbent not seeking re-election).
His conclusion?
Whereas a political climate explanation seems to work so well in incumbent presidential elections and midterm elections, on the surface it doesn't seem to explain the outcomes of nonincumbent elections that well, in terms of either the margin or the winner.
...
So in past elections in which no incumbent was running (as is the case this year), the political environment hasn't seemed as important to how the election eventually played out in an obvious way. Thus, maybe it's not that Obama is underperforming what he "should" be doing. Rather, pundits' expectations about how he should be doing may just be too high because they are relying on patterns that—though well-established—may not apply to all election years equally.
I know, I know—the notion that the pundits might be wrong is unthinkable, but ... we can at least entertain it.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | polls | Gallup
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Reader Comments
Obama is a Natural Leader and Consensus Builder!
I will vote for Barack Obama, because we saw what he did out here and his techniques are still being studied by economically hard hit communities across the country. Senator Obama is a natural! He was the top man at Harvard Law and could have gone on to a very lucrative career in corporate America. Instead he chose to come to the Midwest at a time when people were losing their jobs, homes and businesses were being shipped overseas. In the midst of all of this he took up cases to help people regain some of the things that they had lost and made sure that they recaptured their dignity, while working with banks, labor leaders, politicians, investment institutions and big and medium-sized businesses to rebuild devastated communities. He focused on retooling people, processes and technologies, which developed into new jobs, with fresh training and a determination that "each one teach one," in order for participants to perform towards their highest level of potential. Senator Obama has done it! In fact, he dedicated most of his adult life to effectively accomplishing these tasks. His keen judgment, ability to bring people together, while building consensus and generating repeated innovative results is what has made him successful. I am certain that these same qualities will make him a very effective president and world leader.
obama
After tonight acceptance speech and knowing that I am paying more in taxes and disposable cash to maintain a stable quality of life. I will vote and help him be elected the next President.
The last 8yrs has been noting about the war,,ask yourself what else has this admistration done to affect the amercan way of life since in office. All I can recall in the negatives of this admistration,,,Katrina,Where is Osama Bin Ladin,gas prices,bank closures,housing market slump,scandal in the adminstration,and where is the VP he never in the news.......all this must go away.
If my right shoe is running for office I will vote fot IT instead of anything the Republicans as a choice. They stand for destroying the American way of life and lowering our respect globally.....go away Rebublicans....glad to be and independent.
Obama
I will vote for him because i refuse to let the republicans scare me. I am voting more against republicans than i am for Obama. I am sick of Republicans winning elections on topics that don't effect people, guns, gays, does he wear a flag pin, then people will bitch about how unhappy they are. Look at 2004!! Republicans have had 8 years and what do they have to show for it???? That is all i will say when someone asks why, what do they have to show for after 8 years???
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