Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Opinion

Robert Schlesinger

Obama's and McCain's Vice Presidential Picks Won't Matter in November

August 22, 2008 01:07 PM ET | Robert Schlesinger | Permanent Link | Print

While vice-presidential mania hits its peak, can we take a deep breath and remember something: In November, it won't matter whom Barack Obama and John McCain select.

Remember two names: Lyndon B. Johnson and J. Danforth Quayle.

LBJ was the last (perhaps only) vice presidential selection deemed critical to his ticket's victory, although John F. Kennedy still would have won the presidency had he lost Texas. (And the next time someone tells you that JFK won in 1960 because of cheating in Illinois, remind them that JFK would have won even had he lost Illinois.)

Quayle, of course, is considered the gold standard of poor vice-presidential picks (earning Tom Eagleton's eternal gratitude). That George H. W. Bush won in 1988 and lost in 1992 was basically unrelated to Quayle's credentials or lack thereof.

There are two names this year that could actually make a difference. If polling numbers are to be believed (and I'm a skeptic), Sen. Hillary Clinton could solidify Obama's base. I'm doubtful of the Hillary Factor but am willing to acknowledge the possibility.

The other possible difference-maker is Bobby Jindal, the young governor of Louisiana. Were McCain to tap Jindal, it would seriously undercut his argument that Obama is unqualified for the presidency.

But in all likelihood, this election will be won or lost at the top of the ticket, not the second spot.

Tags: presidential election 2008 | running mates | Vice President | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | John McCain | Lyndon Johnson | Bobby Jindal | Dan Quayle

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Reader Comments

FRAUD ALERT

LOOK UP THE KEATING FIVE.

THEN YOU WILL KNOW WHO TO VOTE FOR.

TECHNICALLY. MCCANES CAREER IN POLITICS SHOULD HAVE ENDED LONG AGO AFTER HE COMMITTED THE FRAUDULANT ACTS WITH HIS GOOD FRIEND MR.KEATING.

THIS TOPIC SEEMS TO BE KEPT SILENT .

ITS ONLY FAIR THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE KNOW THE TRUTH.

WHERE WERE MCCANES MORALS?

DO YOU TRUST THE CHARACTER OF SUCH A MAN TO RUN THE US?

The Shadow of Bush

I Feel that McCane will be the continuence of Bush. In my minds thoughts that would be the final plumet into the ground for our country.

I think we really need to get a democratic party in place.

Obama will have strength with Biden and Hillary. I really think this group can bring us back from the embarassment that has been placed upon our country and it's people by our very own Repulican party and Bush. who never could see past the revenue of oil and power.

If the Dem... can focus on issues creating better circumastances and opportunities for the US again . yet utilize Bidens strengths in Foreign Policy to regain trust and freindship between the US and other countries.. We can put it back together,

Our children need to have a chance and quite frankly.. It's time for the change.

If our country does NOT unite this election and choose the democratic reconstruction thats very much needed.. then it's over. We truly need to all pay attention to whats happening in our world if we are going to want the right to complain and fight for what we believe in as opposed to exerting all of our enerty on Brad and Angelina and all of the other nonsense .

Our minds are much larger than that.

PLease .. lets get it right this time. What have we got to loose.

Nothing.

SORRY, BOB; THIS TIME THE VEEP CHOICES DO MATTER.

THERE'S AN OLD SAW IN POLITICS THAT GOES SOMETHING LIKE THIS... "EVERYTHING REMAINS THE SAME, UNTIL IT'S DIFFERENT." AND THE FIRST TEAM TO ADJUST TO THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OFTEN WINS. OBAMA'S SELECTION IS A GOOD EXAMPLE. BIDEN WAS THE "SAFE" CHOICE. AT LEAST BARRY WON'T NEED A FOOD TASTER WITH JOE. BUT BOTH OF THESE GUYS ARE PRONE TO SAYING SELF-WOUNDING THINGS THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER FROM. BARRY HAD THE "CLINGING TO RELIGION AND GUNS" COMMENT, AND JOE SAID OF BARRY..."HE'S A GOOD, CLEAN, ARTICULATE GUY..." WHICH AUTOMATICALLY DISSED A WHOLE QUADRANT OF PREVIOUS CANDIDATES AND THEIR VOTERS. GREAT. BOTH CANDIDATES ARE INCREDIBLY CLUMSY WHEN THEY'RE "OFF PROMPTER." AND IN A TOWN HALL STYLE DEBATE, DEMOCRATIC VOTERS ARE GOING TO BE WONDERING WHICH OF THE TWO IS GOING TO SELF-IMMOLATE FIRST. AND NEITHER IS VERY GOOD AT DEALING WITH CHIPPY, CONTENTIOUS QUESTIONS.

THIS HAS TO BE WHY MCCAIN LET BARRY PICK FIRST. EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT JOHN IS JUST KEEPING THE SEAT WARM FOR HIS SUCCESSOR. SO HIS VEEP IS JUST HANGING FIRE UNTIL THE SENATOR FROM ARIZONA GOES BACK HOME.TIM PAWLENTI WOULD BE THE IDEAL CHOICE. THE MAN HAS A SLOW ROLLING, UNDERSTATED INTENSITY AND A "KNOWING" ASSURANCE OF GREAT THINGS TO COME. HE FREELY ADMITS TO MISSTEPS EARLY IN HIS POLITICAL CAREER, AND HAS A GREAT, UNFLAPPABLE SENSE OF HUMOR. HE'S QUICK ON HIS FEET AND GENUINE. HE'S ALSO A ROCK RIBBED CONSERVATIVE WHO'S AS COMFORTABLE TO REPUBLICAN VOTERS AS A FAVORITE PAIR OF SHOES. IT'S NO WONDER THAT HE'S ALREADY BEING CALLED "THE NEXT RONALD REAGAN." BOBBY JINDAL IS CUT FROM THE SAME CLOTH, BUT IS FULL OF FIRE AND UNBRIDLED ENTHUSIASM. HE JUST NEEDS A LIITLE MORE EXPERIENCE. I'M REALLY LOOKING FORWARD TO THE UNFOLDING DRAMA. BECAUSE THE DEMS UP ON THE HILL GAVE US THE ENERGY CARD TO PLAY. AND IN TODAY'S GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, DOMESTIC DRILLING TRUMPS EVERYTHING ELSE.

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Robert Schlesinger is a deputy editor at U.S. News and World Report and oversees all opinion editorial content. He is the author of White House Ghosts: Presidents and Their Speechwriters.

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