Zogby's Margin: McCain by 5—Out There or Out Front?
So, John Zogby's latest poll has John McCain up a clear 5 points over Barack Obama. What do you think, readers, is Zogby's poll an outlier or a harbinger?
Tags: presidential election 2008 | John McCain | polls
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Reader Comments
Having it only one way ?
Why all the sudden concern for the "Zogby" Poll ? You all sworn swears by it when Obama led in the poll for months ? Now all of a sudden questions as to the validity of the poll because McCain gets a positive push ? Obama folks need to remember the fact that Obama has never had over 47% of the poll in the first place ! So much to the disappointment of the Obama supporters it will never be 100% for Obama !!If you want Obama`s numbers to go back up , keep him off LIVE TV !
Polls are like the weather
There is a hurricane outside my window right now. Tomorrow it will be gone. Maybe there will be a little rain. What about the next day? Sunshine? When the storm passes and the weather clears up then everyone will be able to assess the damage that has been done. The hurricane is barely a category one but it is no fairy tale... and some people will definately be more affected than others.
Polls are like the weather... hard to forecast but easy to spot where damage has been done. Only the seroius damage takes just a little longer to fix.
Politcally, there has been a little damage done... people have been able to assess the recent politcal storms. Both sides are getting an idea of what they are up against. I believe what has just happened is that the playing field just been evened... there is no front runner now. May the best man win.
Take It Seriously.
A 5 percentage point advantage is statistically significant with polls this large. It shouldn't be an outlier if all polls are taken responsibly.
Will it be a harbinger? If public sentiment remains the same or continues to accelerate in McCain's favor, yes. McCain looked great at the Saddleback forum. If he continues to be as articulate and confident in debates, he very possibly could win.
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