Presidential Race Tab: $800 Million

Spending on advertising in the 2008 presidential election will surpass $800 million, according to an overview released this morning by the campaign media analysis group of New York-based TNS Media Intelligence.

And—no surprise—the analysts say that the states "best positioned" to be targets for that spending are Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida, all key primary states, and Ohio, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Missouri, battlegrounds in the general election or in key House or Senate races. And despite the growing influence of the Internet and other media, the analysts say, "the 2008 election battle is still going to be largely waged on TV," in a way "very similar to that of the 2004 election."

It's no wonder Iowa and New Hampshire are in the fight of their lives to keep their first-in-the nation standing in the caucus and primary season.  Wild card? TNS says if billionaire New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg  enters the race as a third-party candidate, all spending bets and advertising strategies will be upended.

"Other factors could change the landscape in several battleground states," TNS says, "including proposed changes to the allocation of Electoral College votes, prospective single issue candidacies running on issues associated [with] abortion, and the Iraq war."

This year, the analysis says, spending on all political and issue television ads has already surpassed $529 million, and TNS projects that it could top $700 million by year's end and hit up to $3 billion for the full 2008 election cycle.

—Liz Halloran