White Women: The Not-So-Swing Group for Barack Obama and John McCain
Women are important this election cycle. They are donating more money and voted in high numbers during the primaries, but they aren't changing their opinions about candidates willy-nilly as some would have you believe.
The buzz is that John McCain had captured the support of white women because of Sarah Palin. But here's the rub: white women haven't behaved any differently from the general population. They haven't been swinging as wildly as my colleague Bonnie and many others have suggested.
Women in general tend to vote Democratic, but white women traditionally vote Republican. The media and political consultants made much of Palin entering the race and said that women across the board, but especially white women, were swinging to McCain because she was on the ticket. Despite the loud and frequent claims that Palin was the silver bullet, Gallup found that she did not help McCain among white women. White women are following the same patterns as all voters:
Gallup Daily tracking has shown some variation in support levels for the two candidates—McCain and Barack Obama—across the last month and a half, but the shifts in candidate preferences of white women do not appear to have been much different from those of all voters.
So why all of the focus on white women? With this historic election where Hillary Clinton came close to winning the nomination and Palin is on the Republican ticket, women are at the center of the debate. And while the focus is warranted, some of it is misguided. Women have shifted slightly from week to week. But the Gallup tracking poll shows white women followed the same patterns as all registered voters. And the fluctuations, while they could be significant in a close election, aren't that severe.
| Obama % among white women | McCain % among white women | |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 15-21 | 45 | 47 |
| Sept. 8-14 | 40 | 51 |
| Sept. 1-7 | 42 | 49 |
| Aug. 25-31 | 43 | 47 |
| Aug. 18-24 | 39 | 48 |
| Obama overall % | McCain overall % | |
| Sept. 15-21 | 49 | 44 |
| Sept. 8-14 | 45 | 47 |
| Sept. 1-7 | 47 | 45 |
| Aug. 25-31 | 48 | 42 |
| Aug. 18-24 | 45 | 45 |
—From Gallup.com
So let's be honest about all of this. Palin helped McCain shore up support among white women, but they were likely going to vote for him anyway based on past voting patterns and exit polls, as Robert writes. White Democratic women haven't moved, as I wrote earlier this week. And white women in general aren't the swing group many in the media have made them out to be.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | voters | Barack Obama | John McCain | polls | female voters
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Reader Comments
VP Palin
McCain did a good job in pickinh Palin. It did not only show his lack of good judgement but also his competent. Keep it up McCain.
Moms
Does this mean that that pundits and politicans (Sarah Palin - I'm talking to you) will finally stop talking about soccer moms and hockey moms and other dumb code phrases for white women?
If it Weren't for the Race Issue!
Let's face it, if it weren't for the race issue Obama would have it made. He is a bright, thoughtful man with good experience in working with people on both sides of the aisle, as they like to say. He comes from a background well grounded in the experiences of the majority of the public; ie, worked very hard from the bottom up. And he was successful telling us about his skills and ability to set and achieve goals. He was a Constitutional law scholar, something that we, the people, sure need after 8 yrs of an administration that has systematically trashed the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. This man has paid his dues and then went back into the community to contribute to the lives of people.
On the other hand, the biography of McCain is that of a spoiled army brat who hid behind his father's and grandfather's clout. He has been portrayed as a hot head and a misognynist from early on in his life and that seems not to have changed. His irrational, hotheadedness has been transformed into his being a maverick--one who flip flops whenever it serves his interests. Voting with Bush over 90% of the past 8 yrs does not portray an independent thinker. Quite the opposite: he appears as an opportunist. When he says that he wants to stop pork barrel spending, what he is saying is that he does not want to spend any money on social programs, including social security, the guarantee that working people will not starve to death in their old age. Although, without additional support most poor elderly are barely making it today.
While no one is a perfect candidate and numerous forces play to impact them all, it seems a no brainer to support Obama as the most reasonable candidate. And other than his race which seems to frighten people, there is no reason to not support him. McCain has shown himself to be an elitist, irrational, unstable and ignorant candidate. His arrogance is such that he doesn't even bother to get his facts straight about world affairs but he pretends to have experience in world politics. Actually, he is a pretty scarey person who believes in violence and hegemony without any regulations to restrict runaway greed and thievery. Mccain's pick of Sarah Palin was a cynical move designed to shore up the support of the extreme fundamentalist religious base. This is a woman who thinks the earth is only 6000 years old and that humans walked the earth with dinosaurs!
I for one prefer someone who has indicated a history of humanistic values and ethics. And as a woman, who happens to be caucasian, I will put greater trust in this man whose voting record has been consistent and whose history is stable and respectful of all people. He is the one who will be able to talk with people around the world and at home. His trip to Germany was a demonstration of his ability in this arena. His philosophy of dilomacy first is much more appealing than that of a hothead who blew up 3 military planes with his lack of personal discipl
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