Brian Hamilton runs Raleigh N.C.-based Sageworks, a financial analysis and software company. He stopped by the office this week to talk markets and stocks.

Hamilton has been notably bullish on the economy lately (see this post by Fox's Elizabeth MacDonald for his reasons why), and is continuing to tout companies that boast both healthy cash flow and defensive market positions even as volatile markets keep everybody on edge.

"I do not think we're going into a major recession. I don't think the market is going to tank," he says.

Proxy fight!

In his letter to Yahoo's board, legendary investor and agitator Carl Icahn threatens to start ousting board members if Jerry Yang and company don't rescind their "unconscionable" decision to reject Microsoft's $33-a-share bid. He chides Yahoo management for "overly optimistic financial forecasts" and warns that shareholders should get a say in any "strategic alternatives" being bandied about by management. He says he's got about 59 million Yahoo shares and a 10-person board ready to go. He is petitioning for government clearance to buy $2.5 billion more worth of stock.

It's on!

Fitch, the ratings agency, says the credit crisis is now in its final stages.

Its report describes the impact of further downgrades by credit rating agencies as "minimal" and puts total losses at $400 billion, though more broad definitions could boost that to $550 billion.

Fitch also concludes that about half of the total subprime losses that caused the credit markets to falter come from the banking sector. The rest are spread through insurers, hedge funds, and others. That could be good news, Fitch says, because that mix of risk-holders may have hedged that risk more effectively than many expected at the nadir of the crisis.

Merrill Lynch's monthly survey of fund managers showed a big drop in the number of respondents worried about a global recession. Just 18 percent think we're already in a global recession, down from 24 percent last month. In April, 40 percent of managers said a recession is likely sometime in the next 12 months. Now just 29 percent expect one. But that's where the good news runs out, the survey says. Now managers are fretting about inflation.

The fact is that the vast majority of managers believe we are mired in a world of below-trend growth and above-trend inflation. Three months ago, 67% of the panel was bracing itself for stagflation; this month that percentage has risen to 85%. Moreover, even if the recession risks have lifted, widespread gloom about the corporate profits outlook lingers on.

That says nothing good for stocks, and 77 percent of those polled said expectations for corporate earnings are still too high.

I'm getting married next month (hi, babe!), so my government stimulus check has been dutifully allocated to support America's burgeoning flowers-invitations-catering industrial complex. But it seems that a lot of you are being a little more responsible.

A monthly survey released today by the National Retail Federation and BIGresearch shows that 40 percent of us will spend our checks to inject some $42 billion back into the economy. That's good news for the economy.

Huge infusions of cash have stemmed the bleeding in the financial sector, but "conditions in financial markets are still far from normal," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech today. He vowed to increase the already massive amount of cash it has lent to investment banks in an attempt to keep markets from seizing up.

That follows comments yesterday by Jamie Dimon of J.P.Morgan that the credit crunch may soon be over, though he predicted the coming (or current) recession will continue at a "slower burn" and could rival the 1982 downturn.

Bank of America has added a new bit of bad news as well. Its mortgage customers are in worse shape than previously thought. Liam McGee, president of its global consumer and small-business banking arm, told a conference today that they're facing "significant economic pressure" from falling home prices. For the bank, that means losses from its home equity portfolio will probably exceed current forecasts of 2 percent to 2.5 percent.

High hopes for small-plane air-taxi services have been getting a ton of press lately.

Too bad their poster child is sputtering. Layoffs and funding woes are plaguing air-taxi start-up DayJet, a company touted as the future of commuting for short-hop flights on superlight jets to and from out-of-the-way spots.

At the same time, regional and charter operator ExpressJet is getting slammed by the credit crisis. Portfolio's Felix Salmon notes that the carrier put $65 million into auction-rate securities that promptly froze up. Now it needs access to cash, or it could follow the likes of Frontier into bankruptcy.

Those pesky economists are always blaming "market forces" for everything.

Take $120 oil, rationed rice, or any of the other headline-grabbing commodities whose prices have spiked this year.

The Wall Street Journal's monthly survey of professional prognosticators says fundamental market conditions rather than nefarious speculators are behind the run-up, and they're blaming the usual suspects.

TechTicker and WallStrip parse the latest in the battle for smartphone supremacy.

TechTicker's Aaron Task and Henry Blodget key off a Fortune report that the 3G iPhone will come priced at just $200.

Immigrants' families back in their home countries are feeling the pinch of weaker U.S. growth.

A new survey by the Inter-American Development Bank shows America's faltering economy, plus renewed enforcement of immigration policy, means less cash is being sent back to Latin American countries in the form of remittances.

Just 50 percent of Latino immigrants are sending money home regularly, compared with 73 percent a year ago, according to the survey.

American automakers are all still having big problems selling cars in the United States, but their international sales growth is staggering.

A quick look at first-quarter international sales shows General Motors posting a 20 percent jump, with notable strength in Russia, China, and Brazil. Some 64 percent of GM sales came from overseas. In Ford's first quarter reported last week, it earned a profit everywhere except in North America. European and South American demand boosted its profits to a surprise $100 million gain in the quarter.

Also, newcomers like India's Tata Motors are gaining clout. Most recently, Tata bought the Land Rover and Jaguar lines from Ford in a $1.7 billion deal approved last week by the European Union.

There's simply no stopping MasterCard and Visa. Both credit card giants are well on their way to becoming two of the Street's best performers for the first half, especially after this week's earnings reports. MasterCard shares rose almost 15 percent today after first-quarter profits more than doubled. Since Visa's May 19 initial public offering, its shares have surged more than 70 percent.

International growth is a big part of both stories, with half MasterCard's quarterly revenue coming from outside the United States. Foreign payments are adding to profits as the U.S. dollar remains weak.

Over at BusinessWeek, Ben Steverman rounds up the latest bullish money manager sentiment and points out some recovery in financials.

Among the riskiest equities these days are financial stocks, and they've been on a tear lately. One index of financial stocks, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, is up almost 16% since the Bear Stearns debacle.

Meanwhile, MarketWatch technicians say a breakout after the conclusion of the Fed meeting tomorrow is possible as markets press three-month highs.

The release of any new Grand Theft Auto title, the hyperviolent bestseller from Take-Two Interactive, always makes waves in gaming circles. Wall Street is watching, too.

That's because Take-Two is currently trying to fend off a takeover by rival Electronic Arts in a tense $1.9 billion buyout offer that's become the gaming industry's equivalent of Microsoft's bid for Yahoo.

Markets looked almost respectable this morning, with investing giants Warren Buffett and Kirk Kerkorian stepping back into the fray.

Buffett is teaming up with Mars to buy chewing gum legend Wrigley in a $23 billion deal for a company he's long admired. Chicago's Wrigley is a standard Buffett investment (though he rarely takes a partner) in a sector with long-term growth potential. His other food holdings include Kraft.

Oh, how my nerdy Fed-watching heart fluttered during this exchange on last night's always genius "30 Rock."

On picking a successor:

Don Geiss: "A word of advice: Whoever you chose has got to be someone you trust."

Jack Donaghy: "I guess that rules out the Federal Reserve."

Donald Straszheim, a long-time China watcher at Roth Capital Partners, calls the bottom for Chinese shares. He cites a recently announced lowering of taxes on stock trading, known as the stamp duty tax, that comes as a long bout of fiscal tightening is finally starting to slow.

Interest rate hikes, tighter reserve requirements, rising inflation, worldwide market turmoil, and questions over global growth have all played a part in sending shares slumping mightily this year. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped almost 10 percent on the news after slumping to near 3000—barely half its value just six month ago. At its peak on Oct. 17, 2007, the index topped out at 6124.

"With equities down 38% year-to-date, and down 47% from the October peak, China equities have become much more attractive," Straszheim writes.

Craig Hodges, a Dallas fund manager who runs the Hodges and Hodges Small Cap Funds, stopped by the office this week to talk stocks. I grew up in nearby Grapevine, which is Spanish for "by the airport," so we wound up discussing a few of his favorite local names in addition to the usual market talk.

An extended Q&A is on the way next week, but he picked out one interesting Loan Star State name worth checking out if you're looking for a safe, long-lived investment.

Capping off another huge day in earnings news, Google posts after the market's close today.

Its shares are off more than a third this year, and this is shaping up as a definitive quarter for the world's best-known tech company.

I've been meaning to get back to Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein's book, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness.

It's their crack at a popular explanation of behavioral economics, where "the robot-like creatures who populate standard economic theories are replaced with real human beings."