Democrats Win Youth, But Republicans Have a Chance
By John Aloysius Farrell, Thomas Jefferson Street blog
OK, young voters. Your turn. The "millennial generation" is the subject of today's analysis, as we continue to sift through the commentary and statistics presented at the joint Brookings Institution/American Enterprise Institute conference on American political demography last Friday.
Once again, the news is bad for the Republican Party. The kids went Democratic. Big time. By 66 to 31 percent.
Indeed, the difference between younger and older voters was greater in the 2008 election, said Pew Research Center analyst Scott Keeter, than in any election since exit polling began.
This is not to say that Barack Obama won only because of his appeal with younger voters. Yesterday we broke down the electorate by race, and showed his strength across the board.
But it is significant that young voters went 2 to 1 for Audacity since they are, of course, the future. And John Kerry also did well with younger voters in 2004, Keeter noted.
In part, the Democratic Party's appeal is due to its diversity. It is the big tent these days, welcoming voters of all races, faiths, and age groups, while the Republicans seem bound on a course of geographic and ideological purification. The GOP is sailing against the tide. In 2000, 74 percent of youthful voters were white. But last November, reflecting the demographic trends that are transforming the U.S. population as a whole, that portion slipped to 62 percent.
Also, "these voters came of age during the latter part of Bill Clinton's presidency," said Keeter, "which was generally good for the Democrats, or during George W. Bush's presidency, which was generally bad for the Republican Party."
Disastrous wars and economies can wreck presidencies and shatter political coalitions, so nothing is for sure. But younger voters seem temperamentally more akin with the Democrats right now. They are generally embracing liberal views on issues like the role of government and government regulation, equal rights for gays and other minorities, and traditional family values.
"These values, along with their impressions of the parties," said Keeter, "have given the Democratic Party a big advantage in identification among young people."
There is, however, a strategic opening for the GOP: The young folks are not appreciably different from older cohorts when asked for their opinion about making money, the role of business, the environment, or government entitlement programs.
In other words, this generation of young folks is more pragmatic, and libertarian, than rigidly lefty. If the GOP can get over its hangups about sexuality and diversity, and the Democrats don't revive the economy, there's room for a Republican comeback.
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Tags: Democrats | Republicans | voters | young voters
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Reader Comments
GOP Will Come Back
Bush decided to invade Iraq for no good reason and that caused the GOP to crash and burn nothing more, nothing less. Had he just finished the job in Afghanistan and stopped Al Qaeda and the Taliban, the GOP would have the majority in Congress today and be real popular. Lesson number one is don't invade a foreign country for no good reason. I predict the GOP will recover though now with all the power in Democratic hands. Most Americans are against gay marriage and abortion and agree with Conservative values, the only reason Obama won was his promise to stop the war in Iraq and the downturn in the economy in Bush's waning days as president. Now Obama will have to take the blame for all the stupid Democratic spending on bailouts and welfare and health programs that are bankrupting America. Ron Paul won a considerable amount of the Conservative youth vote, so don't tell me young people aren't smart enough to vote Republican, They just need a better standard bearer than Sarah Palin who looked too green for the job, and McCain who seemed out of touch.
gop's youth appeal
the gop's homophobia and racism have killed them with young voters, especially those with higher educations...they grew up around minorities and out gays...they are their peers..now i think the gop might still be able to appeal to younger voters without tossing the social conservatives overboard,[under 30's aare very mixed about abortion] but until the party makes the racist wing walk the plank, they're toast..
it also doesn't help that the gop is totally incoherent on pocketbook issues at this point
Wisdom comes with age/experience
Hey, I voted for McGovern in the first presidential election when I could vote. Then I did a two year stint in West Africa in the Peace Corps, and saw firsthand what life is like in societies which don't have the rule of law, and have become dependent upon the generosity of others for their welfare. I made a hard turn to the right afterwards.
However the GOP had clearly lost it's way these days. It's gotta stop getting involved with what folks do in the privacy of their bedrooms and their doctors' offices. I have historically voted for the GOP because of their mantra of personal responsibility and fiscal conservatism. What happened to that? Also, the party has a serious image problem (old white folks who aren't terribly bright and are overly religous). I eagerly look forward to a GOP with fresh new faces and some articulate younger leadership who can explain to our kids that their futures are being mortgaged by the spendthrift ways of the Democratic party. As a plus, the GOP should learn to work with the Democrats once in awhile for what is best for our nations, rather than constantly ranting against any and all proposals put forth by the Dems.
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