Texas Could Soon Be a Republican Presidential Nightmare
By John Aloysius Farrell, Thomas Jefferson Street blog
The conference on the future of U.S. politics, convened at the American Enterprise Institute on Friday, has come and gone, leaving in its wake more bad news for the Republican Party.
I know. You're asking: "So what else is new?" The GOP has been taking a beating in the public opinion polls of late. What makes this particular set of portends scary for Republicans is that the conferees were not studying mere polling snapshots. They were dealing with demography—long-term trends regarding various voting groups identified by age, race and geographic location. And in politics, demography is destiny.
I'm going to highlight some of the findings as the week progresses. I'll begin today with race.
Here's the bottom line: As the white vote continues to shrink in America, the Democrats are doing a much better job attracting voters of African, Latino and Asian ancestry. Especially in key Electoral College states.
The Brookings Institution's William Frey delivered the numbers.
- The Democrats did better last year among white folks. In 2008, Republican John McCain carried the white vote by 12 points, a poorer showing than George W. Bush, who beat John Kerry by 17 points among white voters in 2004. And because so much of the Republican margin among white voters was built up in the South, Barack Obama was able to win 223 electoral votes in the rest of the country (up from Kerry's 62 electoral votes) by winning white majorities in those states.
- As might be expected, the nation's first African-American president carried black voters by 91 points, up from Kerry's 77-point victory in 2004. That was important. But also crucial was Obama's margin among other minority voters. He did 16 points better among Latino voters and 15 points better among Asian-Americans than Kerry did in 2004.
- And, perhaps most significantly, the current preference shown by minority voters for Democrats is taking place as the minority share of the electorate increases. The percentage of voters who were white slipped between 2004 and 2008, from 79 to 76 percent.
- The trends in age favor the party that appeals to all races. About 77 percent of white Americans and 66 percent of black Americans are over 18 and eligible to vote, but the Latino population has a huge baby boom on the way. Some 45 percent of Latino America is still under the age of 18. Even without further immigration, the importance of Latino voters is, proportionately, going to continue to grow.
To be sure, the clout of minority voters has historically been minimized by their reluctance to turnout and vote on Election Day. And, in 2008, white turnout once again led all racial groups. But, here again, the trends favor a party that pitches the biggest tent, and right now that is the Democrats. Turnout for white voters slipped a point from 67 to 66 percent between 2004 and 2008, but in all other groups it climbed. The turnout of black voters went from 60 to 65 percent, for Latinos from 47 to 50 percent and for Asian-Americans from 45 to 48 percent.
What does this mean for presidential elections? Well, let's look at the classic big swing state of Florida. In 2004 and 2008 in Florida, the results among white voters were pretty much the same. Bush carried the state's white population by 15 points in 2004 and McCain by 14 points in 2008. But Obama won black voters by 92 points in 2008 (up from Kerry's 73-point margin in 2004) and turned the Latino vote around. Though Bush carried Florida's Latinos by 12 points in 2004, McCain lost them by 15 points in 2008. And as the Democrats were doing better among minority voters in Florida, the minority share of the electorate was growing. White voters made up 76 percent of the vote in Florida in 2004 and but 71 percent in 2008.
For a party that carries Latino voters by healthy margins, it doesn't take much to tilt a Red state into the Blue or Purple columns. Latinos comprise 21 percent of the population (and 15 percent of the vote) in purple Florida, and 37 percent of the population (and 21 percent of the vote) in blue California. Both went Democratic last year.
The real nightmare for Republican strategists, sifting through these statistics, has to be Texas—which, like California and a few others, is now a majority minority state.
According to Frey's charts, 40 percent of the population in Texas, but only 20 percent of the vote, is Latino. If Latinos continue to vote with the Democrats, and the Dems ever find a way to get them to the polls in Texas, the last of the three great Republican Sunbelt bastions could fall.
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Tags: Texas | politics | Republicans | demographics
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The Republic Party is here to stay.
I know there are a lot of ppl that think they want all blue across the board, but really that is not good. You need a balance in congress of red and blue. As far as the voters showing an ID when voting, I don't understand why the Democrats are fighting against this so much. Anytime you get an ID or government assistance, you have to go though a slew of red tape. At every place you go to get an ID, birth certificate, SS card, you are asked if you want to reg to vote. So I know all the ppl that are opposing to get rid of Acorn's involvement in voter's registration and showing an ID is just mad because it will keep things legit and I for one think Democrats don't do anything legit. There is nothing wrong with producing an ID with your voters card when voting. I'm all for it. I for one think Texas is doing a good thing by pushing this and hope it goes through. It keeps everything legit. Voting in 2010 for your Governor, Senators and Reps is just as important as voting President. Do your research, don't just listen to the news, but study and vote. This is your country and the future of you and your children. I use to be Democrat, but after Carter changed to the Republican Party. The Democrats get worse in making ppl into leaches, instead of letting them stand on their own two feet. There is a difference in assisting someone and making a person totally dependent on you. This country has turned away from helping and turned to supporting ppl that are very capable of making their own way.
Texas -Win Back foir Democrats
Here is my take on what Democrats should do to make Democratic Party in majority in Texas legilsature and Governor.
Ambassador Syed A.Ahsani,Chairman,Amercian Muslim Task Force for Civil Rights and Elections,Southwest,Dallas/Fort Worth
1. Select the most qualified candidates for various offices.
2. Prepare issue agenda to introduce change for the better in Education,Health,Economy,Energy,immigration,trade,homeland security and foreign policy
3.bring Texas at par with the top States in Education urban Development,Healthcare,etc.
Read on:
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Dying for Nurses
March 20, 2009 | Political Intelligence
When dozens of nurses from around the state rallied at the Capitol on March 4, everyone had a story. Anita Prinz, from outside Houston, told of nurses having to care for a dozen hospital patients at once. Tom Laughlin, from the Dallas area, said he frequently has to choose which critically ill patient to care for and which to leave alone for a few minutes. There were sad anecdotes about unattended patients falling, unnecessary deaths, and overworked nurses leaving the profession.
Even Rep. Senfronia Thompson had a tale. The Houston Democrat, who has filed legislation to require minimum nurse-to-patient ratios in Texas hospitals, told reporters that one of her grandchildren had been rushed to a Huntsville hospital a few days earlier with a temperature of 104.6. The child and mother waited four hours and eventually left without receiving treatment. (The next day, Thompson’s grandchild was diagnosed with strep throat and an ear infection.)
“This is why nurses quit,” said Beverly Leonard, a registered nurse for 40 years. “They can’t stand going home at the end of the day and thinking, ‘How could I not treat that kid with the 104 temperature?’”
Texas ranks 43rd nationally in the number of nurses per capita, with roughly one RN for every 149 Texans in 2008, according to the Texas Board of Nurse Examiners. The Legislature is considering two competing proposals to address the shortage. Thompson’s House Bill 1489 requires hospitals and other inpatient facilities to meet bedside nurse-to-patient ratios. (Sen. Mario Gallegos Jr., a Houston Democrat, has a Senate companion.) That proposal is backed by the National Nurses Organizing Committee, a branch of the nation’s largest nurses’ union. The group says similar legislation enacted in California in 2004 has greatly improved the quality of care there.
The Texas Hospital Association, which helped kill similar legislation last session, opposes ratios, fearing the up-front costs. Hospitals prefer a bill by Sen. Jane Nelson, the Republican from Flower Mound who chairs the Senate Health and Human Services Committee. Her legislation would give nurses more whistle-blower protection, but would only require hospitals to consider nurses’ input when deciding on staffThe Current State Of Political Parties -- Part II
By Bill Burch
June 5, 2009
The Republican Party
You must know how Republicans got to where they are today in order to understand how Republicans can make a resurgence. Unlike the Democrats, where the leadership and the base seem to walk in lock step with each other, the Republicans seem to be all over the place. While the party was largely united in the 1970s and 80s, cracks began to show in the 90s and today we have wide canyons dividing the Republicans. The Democrats have opened the door for the Republicans to make massive gains throughout the United States, but can the Republicans get their act together in time to take advantage of the opportunities presented to them?
Senator Barry Goldwater was the architect of conservatism in the Republican Party. His brand of conservatism consisted mainly of less government, lower taxes, individual freedom and responsibility, and states rights. In Goldwater's bid for president, he lost by one of the largest margins in history. But this was more due to his stand against the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (a Republican piece of legislation) and the recent assassination of President John F. Kennedy, than to his conservative views.
Sixteen years later, Ronald Reagan, using the economic conservative principles of Barry Goldwater, supplemented by the social conservative principles of Jerry Farwell's Moral Majority, as well as his strong conservative foreign policy agenda, won an overwhelming victory over President Jimmy Carter and the liberal Democrats. Four years later, President Ronald Reagan won forty-nine of fifty states based on his successful implementation of conservatism.
In 1988 three things occurred that would lead to the eventual decline of the Republican Party. First, Jerry Falwell shut down the Moral Majority, an organization that welcomed into its fold Catholics and Jews as well as Protestant Christians. Second, after losing his presidential bid Pat Robertson used his remaining campaign funds to start the Christian Coalition which used heavy-handed tactics to get its way and began pushing out of the Republican Party Catholics, Jews, pro-abortion advocates, and others it didn't agree with. Third was the election of George H. W. Bush as president with a campaign based on Reagan conservatism (and the shadow of President Reagan), but then serving as the true moderate that he was.
It's important to know that what you do today in politics may not have an effect for years to come. And the shadow of greatness of President Ronald Reagan took an extraordinary effort to undo. In the nineties, you had in place three of the four factors needed to bring down the Republican Party. A move away from Reagan conservatism, the bullying of the Christian Coalition, and the push away from Ronald Reagan's "Big Tent" philosophy of inclusiveness by the social conservatives.
The final nail came in the mid-nineties with Republican political consultants. Aside from the political philosophy of Ronald Reagan, the next most powerful asset of the Republican Party was its base and in particular its network of Republican Clubs. In an effort to increase the reliance of candidates (and increase profits), consultants drove a wedge between the grassroots of the party and the candidates. This separation created the atmosphere that ultimately led to a disconnect between the grassroots and the Republican office holders. The synergy between the two, thus being broken, led to many office holders moving to the center, the Republican grassroots leadership working to push out all but the born again evangelical Christians, and "true Reagan conservatives" looking around going, "What happened?"
What this shows is the Republicans have a leadership problem. They're flopping around, scratching their heads, wondering what to do. Well let me point out a few things. First, we are at war. I don't mean war with the terrorist, which everyone recognizes. No, I mean a potentially much more deadly war with the Marxist. They are out thinking, out organizing, and out financing the Republicans in every way. They have learned that if a Republican says, "Isn't it a beautiful day for the President to give a speech outside in the rose garden with the blue skies and white clouds", then the Democrats respond with, "You're a racist, what do you have against black clouds?" Most current Republican office holders would say, "I'm sorry about forgetting about those beautiful black clouds". Why not simply say, "Black clouds mean it will rain on the Presidents speech, which might be a good thing now that you bring it up". It's the Democrats who are racist not the Republicans. The Democrats are now, have been in the past, and always will be racist. Remember that racism is not bound by color or national origin but only by intellect.
Regarding the Hispanics, simply tell it like it is, in English, and stop trying to pander. Hispanics are not stupid and pandering just makes them wonder about you. Most are believers in Reagan conservatism and honesty.
Republicans must embrace what works and that is Reagan conservatism. Lower taxes, smaller government, states rights, support of small business, strong for individual rights and freedoms, personal responsibility, pro-gun, pro-life, pro-family, equal rights, and religious freedom for all religions. Republicans must quit fighting each other. Were it not for the Republicans in recent history, the Republicans would win overwhelmingly. Republicans must turn off the TV and get back involved. If Republicans don't do this, then we must all prepare to be citizens of a Marxist or Communist nation.
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Chairman of Grass Roots Institute of Texas (GRIT), Member of the American Mensa Society, Member of the American Legion, Past Public Director of the State Bar of Texas
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In a democracy, voting should be easy. Hassle-free. A simple, rewarding experience. So why are voters being bound up with miles of red tape and bureaucratic hassles? Why are Republicans trying to make it harder to vote?
With SB 362, the Voter ID bill, Republicans will force Texas citizens to go through multiple contortions just to exercise their right to vote.
AUSTIN — The majority of Texas voters would be required to present photo identification in order to cast ballots under a retooled voter identification bill being circulated by House Elections Committee Chairman Todd Smith.
Smith, R-Euless, backed away from his original plan, which allowed voters to present a photo ID or two forms of non-photo ID, after 71 of the 76 House Republicans issued a statement insisting on a strict photo ID law.
In another major change, Smith also modified a provision in his earlier proposal that would have kept the bill from taking effect for four years in order to educate voters about the new ID requirements. Now it would become effective in January 2011.
Voters who are indigent, have a religious objection to the documentation, or live in a nursing home would be exempt from the photo ID requirements in Smith’s revised plan. The bill would also exempt voters who are at least 70 years old and never had a birth certificate because their births weren’t recorded with a state vital statistics office.
Smith acknowledged that he couldn’t muster enough votes for his original proposal to get it out of his committee, which Republicans control by a 5-4 vote. In addition to demanding a photo ID, a statement from the House Republican Caucus also called for a new voter ID requirement to be in place for the next election, effectively repudiating Smith’s proposed four-year delay.
"If there were sufficient support for that," he said of his first plan, "then we would have just voted it out."
The voter ID issue has been repeatedly characterized as a partisan standoff between Democrats and Republicans. But Smith is facing formidable challenges within his own party as he attempts to cobble together a bill capable of gaining bipartisan support in the House.
Plan still evolving
Smith described his latest proposal as "conceptual" and said he may present further modifications in order to find consensus.
"What is necessary to get it out of committee may be different from what [is] needed to get it off the House floor," Smith said.
Smith’s original proposal, which he said remains his "No. 1 choice," was similar to the Senate-passed bill that would allow voters to present either a photo ID or two forms of non-photo ID, such as a utility bill, handgun license or a pilot license.
A voter ID law is one of Republicans’ top legislative priorities in response to what they say are constituent demands for strengthened ballot security. But Democrats say the requirements would disenfranchise poor, elderly and minority voters who might not have the required identification.
'Bad for Texas’
Although Smith said his proposed exemptions are aimed at addressing Democratic concerns over photo IDs, the election committee’s Democratic vice chairman signaled sharp disapproval with Smith’s latest draft.
"I think it’s bad for Texas, plain and simple," said Rep. Aaron Pena, D-Edinburg.
Democratic committee chairmen and vice chairmen, in a letter to House Speaker Joe Straus, are also asking for a further round of public hearings. Smith presided over two days of hearings before unveiling his original plan.
DAVE MONTGOMERY, 512-476-4294
Republicans All Alone on the Dance Floor
The last great hope for the Republican party died after the introduction of McCain-Kennedy Immigration Reform Act. The talk-show hate-mongers got all their listeners to write and call Congress, who (fatally, it turns out) listened and dropped the bill. If that had not happened, I believe the Republicans could have won the election. Now all the Republicans have left is their hate mongering talk show fans, which turn out to be the vast minority in this country. I am married to a "Latino" and he is a solid Democrat. Maybe just 18 months ago, he was fine with Republicans. After the comments the candidates made and the crushing of the bill, he abhors them. Good job guys: You screwed up, alienated the majority of Americans, and are paying for it. I saw it coming, why couldn't you? Personally, I am proud that my country did not cave in to hate mongering politics, it was the best possible outcome. I still voted for McCain, but my husband thinks I voted for Obama. Put someone out there that I don't have to lie to my husband to vote for! And quit listening to talk radio, I did.
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