The Polls May Be Screwy But Barack Obama's Lead Is Real Because He's Strong Among White Voters
OK, Rob. About those screwy polls. For those among us who are polling junkies, the fellows at fivethirtyeight.com have put together a couple of primers on the science of public opinion.
Here is an explanation of the many tracking polls, which explains how the various polling organizations get their samples and other tricks of the trade.
And this post goes over some of the same territory but with a persuasive analysis that the polls showing Barack Obama with a sizable lead are real.
Here's my favorite factoid, which is based on the reality that, despite the growing multicultural nature of American society, white folks still elect our presidents.
According to ace political demographer Ruy Teixeira, the Democrats don't have to win the white vote, but they do need to keep their losses, especially among white married people who really like to vote, in single digits.
As you can see from today's New York Times poll, the Democrats are doing that this year. The survey found Obama and John McCain tied 46 to 46 percent among white men, a group that John Kerry lost to George Bush, 38 to 61 percent, four years ago. And Obama is actually leading among white women, 45 to 42. (They went for Bush 55 to 44 in 2004).
Obama is carrying suburbanites (50 to 39) and parents (49 to 38) and white Catholics (53 to 36) and white independent men (49 to 38), and white voters earning less than $50,000 a year (49 to 40)—all groups that Bush carried four years ago.
The Times poll suggests that there is some room for the race to tighten. Obama is scoring relatively well among conservatives (23 percent) and Republicans (11 percent), who may drift back to McCain between now and Election Day. If they are joined by key swing voters like white Catholics or white women, then it could get interesting once more. But right now, Obama is assembling a potent new Democratic majority.
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Tags: presidential election 2008 | voters | Barack Obama | polls
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Reader Comments
OBAMA BARACK AS PRESIDENT
Accordong to me, i know obama will win these elections and i am also an african from uganda and am praying for him because i know he has the pottential of leading AMERICA as well as the entire world
Al-Qaida Wants Republicans,
Thursday, October 30, 2008 2:22 PM
DUBAI — An al-Qaida leader has called for President George W. Bush and the Republicans to be "humiliated," without endorsing any party in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, according to a video posted on the Internet.
"O God, humiliate Bush and his party, O Lord of the Worlds, degrade and defy him," Abu Yahya al-Libi said at the end of sermon marking the Muslim feast of Eid al-Fitr, in a video posted on the Internet.
Libi, one of the top al-Qaida commanders believed to be living in Afghanistan or Pakistan, called for God's wrath to be brought against Bush equating him with past tyrants in history.
The remarks were the first comments from a leading al-Qaida figure referring, albeit indirectly, to the U.S. elections. Muslim clerics often end sermons by calling on God to guide and support Muslims and help defeat their enemies.
In 2004, al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden issued his first video in more than a year just days before the elections to deride President Bush and warn of possible new September 11-style attacks.
Bin Laden made little mention of Bush's Democratic challenger John Kerry, telling Americans: "Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al-Qaida. Your security is in your own hands and each state which does not harm our security will remain safe."
NOT SO FAST....DON'T EVEN TRY IT.....
Be honest and be fair with our precious votes. I think that JOHN MCBUSH MAY TRY TO GET SOME SLICK TRICKS, LAST MINUTE LESSONS FROM GEORGE BUSH ON HOW TO STEAL THE ELECTION. REMEMBER...THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING THIS HISTORIC ELECTION. SO, EVERY SINGLE VOTE IS PRECIOUS IN THE EYES OF ALL AMERICANS.
SUDDEN GRAVITY GAS PRICES.....WHY?
JUST A NOTE FOR THOUGHT....I WONDER WHY ALL OF A SUDDEN THE GAS PRICES HAS FALLEN SHARPLY.....COULD IT BE THAT SOME RABBITS HAVE BEEN PULLED OUT OF THE REPUBLICAN'S "TRICK OR TREAT HAT?"
SLICK TRICK, AND TEMPORARY TREAT.....GAS GIMMICK GALORE....
COULD IT BE THAT THE REPUBLICANS (BUSH AND MCCAIN) ARE TRYING TO CREATE A FRANTIC BOOST TO THIS SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISES? NO MATTER WHAT LIES, AND GIMMICKS THAT JOHN MCBUSH TRIES TO LIE ABOUT, I THINK THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE CAN SEE THROUGFH WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE GAS PUMPS....JUST BEFORE THE ELECTION, ALL OF A SUDDEN, THE GAS PRICES HAVE DIPPED, IN ORER TO CREATE AN ILLUSION THAT THE ECONOMY IS NOT ALL THAT BAD. YOU WILL HAVE TO COME UP WITH SMARTER "TRICK OR TREAT" THAN THIS ONE MCBUSH, BECAUSE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE SIMPLY TOO SMART TO BE FOOLED BY ALL OF THE LIES, AND SLICK TRICKS
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