Monday, November 23, 2009

Opinion

Obama Trumps McCain Among Swing Voters in Debate

October 16, 2008 12:30 PM ET | Bonnie Erbe | Permanent Link | Print

Was anyone else bored by the final presidential debate?

Personally, I did not learn much about either candidate that I did not know before watching the third and final presidential debate. There's one minor exception: I never knew of John McCain's propensity to mimic Ronald Reagan's technique of using the story of one American's life (in McCain's case, Joe the Plumber; in President Reagan's case, Mother Hale and many others) to make political points.

I did, however, learn a lot about Senator McCain's impact on undecided women voters during the debate. I did so, thanks to the use of so-called Perception Analyzers, or digital devices that allow voters viewing an event to register their likes and dislikes in real time.

The Columbus Dispatch reports on one such group convened in its hometown made up of 50 undecided female voters who registered the following opinions:

One of the most striking findings of the evening: The undecided voters displayed an open distaste whenever the candidates' rhetoric turned negative.

The dials turned to virtually their lowest point of the evening when McCain criticized Obama for not condemning U.S. Rep. John Lewis' comparison of McCain and running mate Sarah Palin's campaign rallies to the era of one-time segregationist Gov. George Wallace of Alabama.

And when McCain challenged Obama on the Illinois senator's connections with former Weather Underground leader William Ayers and the group ACORN (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now), the voters' ratings barely budged above 50.

What's interesting to me is that voters, particularly women, have always told pollsters they are turned more off than on by negative campaigning. But this year, they may actually base their votes, in part, on who's going more negative and by voting for the other guy.

On the other hand, when Obama talked about his desire to find common ground on the issue of abortion, the dials shot up to more than 80. McCain's ratings peaked when he talked about health care and stressed the need for energy independence and offshore drilling.

Overall, this group found Obama's performance more appealing:

The result? A major win for Democrat Barack Obama. Seventy-one percent of these undecided voters thought Obama did better in addressing the issues important to them, while only 9 percent felt that way about Republican John McCain.

McCain may have struck his last blow in the third debate in turning off women swing voters. If so, negative campaigning may fall out of favor for the foreseeable future, as will campaigning on lower taxes (McCain's main theme of the debate, while women swing voters wanted more talk about healthcare and education).

Tags: debates | presidential election 2008 | voters | Barack Obama | John McCain | female voters

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Reader Comments

For a guy who lacks experience..

..Obama sure did a hell of a lot better than the old timer! It wasn't even a contest. A man of his skin tone showed up out of nowhere and bested all of the old boys and girls as proven by his overwhelming success thus far. Proof is in the pudding as they say. He's where he is because of who his is. He's a proven winner and success story before he's even been elected! I think 09 won't be so bad(at least for Obama's part)

How can you still be undecided when Nader exists?

Amazing undecided voters still exist. But I guess it is nice to know how they are thinking in this whole bit: http://www.236.com/news/2008/10/17/thought_process_flowchart_the_1_9608.php

Debate- its impact on the general

Both campaigns are very weak on detail and many policies seem to be thought up on the hoof simply to surprise the other side,and many of these are then forgotten or not developped,if theres no immediate impact.

The debate shows its the media that will decide the election and therefore its far from over yet, as anything can still happen to move public opinion.

This absence of detail and seeming reliance on mood music seems incredible after such a long campaign, that important issues are barely discussed, and politicians behave like performing seals out for a good line learnt off-stage.

In terms of democracy its pathetic.That the future of a huge and important nation should be decided by mood is completely pathetic.And it was the B movie actor Reagan who asked wheres the beef......!!!!!

You deserve much much much better USA

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About Bonnie Erbe

Bonnie Erbe is a contributing editor at U.S. News & World Report and hosts PBS's weekly news analysis program, To the Contrary with Bonnie Erbe. She also writes a weekly syndicated newspaper column for Scripps Howard News Service.

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