Convention Bounce in Evidence for Obama
The convention bounce has finally appeared. It appeared with a vengeance in today's daily presidential tracking poll by the Gallup organization:
"PRINCETON, NJ — Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by a 48% to 42% margin."
The Rasmussen poll shows a much more modest bounce:
"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it's Obama 47% and McCain 47%.
Quite frankly, the Gallup bounce is of the size I have been expecting all along, coming as it seems to have a few days later than I would have thought. The question now is whether it lasts and if so, for how long. The next question is whether Sen. John McCain gets a smaller, bigger, or similar bounce from his vice presidential nominee selection and his convention that starts almost as soon as the Democratic convention ends.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | polls | Rasmussen Report | Democratic National Convention | Gallup
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Reader Comments
The Big O Baracked My World last night!
Grandpa McCain's choice for VP will not be so happy with his policies when her igloo is foreclosed on, her fuel costs skyrocket, (Alpo could go to $4.00 a can or higher), and who wants the right to bare arms when it's 40 below?
This woman will be one pacemaker beat away from the Presidency and I certainly wouldn't buy any green bananas if I were McCain.
He's so old, he was around when the Dead Sea was just sick!
Like they say; Whether it's Iditarod or politics; unless you're the lead dog, the scenery never changes. (Kind of like the Republican Party).
Go O
"Conventions are known to give a 10-15 pt bounce"
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Can you name one convention in history where this is happened? That's right...it hasn't. Kerry and Gore both had essentially no "bounce" and Clinton only had an 8% rise in poll numbers post convention.
Please analyze where you get your information from before posting opinions erroneously stated as fact. Your entire post is full of factual inaccuracies.
Bounce Logic
One thing I've acquired over the years is a sense for sniffing out where legend becomes truth. One of those items is the notion of the big bounce. While it's true that conventions frequently yield a bounce, the 15% figure being bandied about by Republican spin meisters has become truth where little evidence exists to support it. I'm quite certain they mentioned this number last week so that when the bounce came in at any level less than 15%, which of course it will, they'll be able to retort that, "the Obama bounce is lame. He's a fading star."
While I'm too jaded to believe that a lead by any Democrat is legitimate come election day, the fact that on his best day McCain hasn't cracked 45% bodes well for Obama. However, he needs to crack 50% after this convention to regain momentum, in my view. One thing about Obama that is overlooked, though, is that he is not afraid of working hard to win. This is not a photo-op guy. Just ask the Clinton campaign.
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