The Democratic Convention Disconnect—Obama and Middle America
DENVER—Democrats are certainly energized by Sen. Hillary Clinton's home run speech and the energy level at the Democratic convention is clearly kinetic. But the national polls are showing something completely at odds with Democrats' spirits.
Normally it's dangerous business to pay too much attention to daily presidential tracking polls. But early this week, both Rasmussen Reports and Gallup were reporting some pretty stunning trends. In a week when the candidate whose party is having its convention should be heading toward the traditional 5 point bounce, this year's Democratic candidate is in a dead heat or slightly behind his Republican rival and losing ground instead of gaining it.
When I suggest to Democrats at the convention that this was fairly predictable, they look at me cross-eyed. All the hubbub over Clinton's supporters has focused on why her base, predominantly white working class conservative Democrats and white women over 40, isn't transferring over to the Obama camp.
But missing in this question is the difference in perception of the two candidates. Despite Clinton's claim that her supporters should be behind the candidate who is similar to her on the issues, the two candidates are perceived as being miles apart. She is seen as a centrist, moderate Democrat and Sen. Obama is seen as extremely liberal. Even National Journal named him as the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate based on a series of important votes. The Journal named Sen. Clinton as the 14th most liberal member—that from among some 50 Democrats in the U.S. Senate, putting her much closer to the center than Obama. So it is no wonder Gallup reported Wednesday:
Barack Obama has been struggling to maintain his Democratic base thus far in August, and according to weekly averages of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, the problem seems to be with conservative Democrats. Within the Democratic Party, Obama's losses are primarily evident among the relatively small group that describes its political views as conservative. The 63 percent of conservative Democrats supporting Obama over McCain in Aug. 18-24 polling is the lowest Obama has earned since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June. At the same time, there have been no similar drops in support for Obama in the preferences of liberal or moderate Democrats.
And Rasmussen Reports added the following: "The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44 percent of the vote for the second straight day. When 'leaners' are included, though, McCain picked up another point since yesterday and now has a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 47 percent to 46 percent. This is the first time since August 9 that McCain has held any advantage over Obama. The candidates have been within two points of each other on every day but two for the past months."
The Democrats nominated a junior, inexperienced Senator with no legislative accomplishments on his resume to whom young Americans and latte liberals swarmed due to his cool, celebrity-like demeanor. But then, those same Democratic leaders act surprised that Middle America isn't following suit. How bizarre!!!
The race is far from over, but Sen. Obama has a bare two months to convince Middle America he is not as liberal as his record shows him to be. In the process, he has to manage the very tricky track of not being accused of flip-flopping. He's already run right into that obstacle on taxes, offshore oil drilling, and surveillance issues and has failed miserably to keep his liberal base energized as a result.
Tags: Barack Obama | polls | Rasmussen Report | Democratic National Convention | Gallup
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obama and middle america
has anyone heard of a write in vote. as a middle american person i don't want either of these candidates that are running. if only we could stand up as americans and vote for the best person for the job not the best person that has the gift of gab. can we all as middle americans stand up for once and write in who we want to be our president and lead this country out of the mess that it is in. we are steadily becoming a third world country. the rich are getting richer off the backs of the poor that are getting poorer. saleries are down, jobs are gone, and we are in the toilet waiting for someone to pull the cord and flush. stand up and lets take our country back from the professional politicians that are not for us and write in someone who is. Hillary tried but the democrates were to afraid to be called racist, better be called sexist and give it to someone who has no experience, but then there is mccain. what can i say. we all know where that is going. so middle america stand up and lets get a movement going to write in a person that can truly help this country find its way back.
It's hard to believe that people will elect a president that will continue funding the wrong battle in Iraq. It's so inconceivable that we have to sacrifice our men and women in this battle when our soldiers are faced with civil war .Our debt is almost 9 trillion dollars. We have to borrow money in China and other Asian countries to sustain our presence in Iraq. Why did we create the biggest embassy in Iraq if we don't intend to stay there forever. Our civilian population is bigger than the Armed forces deployed. Why do we subject our soldiers to all atrocities seen in that part of the world? We should impeach the elected officials who sent us to that kind of mess. I am sick and tired of listening about our national security when we should have been able to prevent the 9/11 attack on thousands of innocent victims in the Twin Towers. Our intelligence failed us. Our executive officials failed us. Yet no one is held accountable. We the people should wake up and stop being complacent.
Lobomaties: when your brain shuts down
Anyone who spends time reading the transcripts of Obama's speeches will be able to tell you the man is not ready to lead. I can't believe those who try to shout Bonnie down rather than provide concrete support for your point of view. Then, I realize you cannot because it doesn't exist with Obama. My favorite video was - not the 55 states or 10 years to be President talking to the various heads of state - it was when the teleprompter broke down and he was unable to continue his speech without it. It was when he refused to visit the wounded troops in Germany because he had to leave his camera behind. Of course, I hear that it was Bush or the Pentagon at fault - but as a US Senator - he had the right - and he knew it - to honor them with a visit. Yes, he's visited wounded troops in the USA, but weren't there cameras there? This one action showed me the man he was - or was not. If you want to elect such a person as commander in chief, then go ahead but remember his priorities. To work out at the Ritz Carlton and give yet another interview - to CNN. Pictures of the workout were published in our media - and the CNN interview shown. That is what is important to this man. For shame! How can you defend him in this issue? And it is only one of many. You probably have never heard of the others since our Obama press do not report it. Lose your ignorance by doing some research and you will be amazed. Read - carefully read the transcripts of his speeches, interviews. He's cute - some reporters called him sexy. I should believe what they write? He even gives Matthews a tickle down the leg. Gov. Palin was in a beauty contest more than 20 years ago and then she grew up and governed a town and then a state for the past 8 years. Sen. Obama is in a beauty contest today. He now needs 8 years to equal her experience. This is NOT American Idol. Folks, this in my future and I shall not let you throw it away because you are wrapped up in a pretty face. All right - handsome. But you know what I mean. Tsk. Tsk
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