A Split Convention and a Backwards Bounce
As I wrote below, this still feels at times like a contested convention. The media are looking to Sen. Hillary Clinton's speech tonight to the convention to bring all her supporters around. So is Barack Obama's campaign, whether fairly or unfairly (why should it be Clinton's job to unite the party, after all). But I don't see her speech doing that. Two new daily tracking polls (Rasmussen and Gallup) show Sen. Obama slipping in public support. Yes, he's getting a convention bounce, but a bounce in the wrong direction.
The Democratic National Convention has begun and the poll numbers are bouncing, but not in the direction that most people anticipated. The Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44 percent of the vote while John McCain also earns 44 percent. When "leaners" are included, it's still tied with Obama at 46 percent and McCain at 46 percent. Yesterday, with leaners, Obama had a three-point advantage over McCain (see recent daily results).
It's always dangerous to read too much into daily tracking polls. But the timing of this drop for Obama could turn out to be significant. The Gallup Daily presidential tracking poll shows McCain ahead by a statistically-insignificant 2 points, but what's important is that Obama's selection of Sen. Joe Biden is not pulling in any support and candidates traditionally see a bounce coming out of their conventions, not a drop. This makes the Hillary vote, white working class Americans and white women 40+, all the more critical to Obama's efforts. The media spin and the campaign spin, putting the onus of party unification on Clinton, is bound to annoy her supporters all the more. I heard several of them complaining about it last night at the Pepsi Center while watching Michelle Obama's speech. Yes, Michelle Obama put in a complimentary line or two about Sen. Clinton, but the Obama campaign is going to have to do much, much more. Or perhaps there's nothing the campaign can do at this point to woo those voters back into the fold. I have heard too many diehard lifelong Democrats saying they are going to vote in November for the "down ticket" Democrats (Senate, Congress, local races, etc.) but they are not going to vote for a presidential candidate.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | polls | Rasmussen Report | Democratic National Convention | Gallup
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Reader Comments
Obama will win!!!
It should be clear, even to the unstable, religious zealots in this country that they share in the responsibility for our dismal economic and global standing by their unwavering support for the incompetent, irresponsible, semi-literate, chimpanzee of a George W. Bush. He couldn't do this much damage without the vapid voters who sold their souls two elections in a row. Too often I've heard insipid remarks like "Oh, I know he makes mistakes, but he's got Jesus in his heart". Good God...how stupid can people be?? Well, we've tried it your way - we've tried ignorant; now let's try smart for a while. Obama will have such overwhelming support from all those whose lives have been damanged by the Bush mafia that he will kick McCain's sorry ass come November. There is no way those of us who have any concern for our Country will let you nincompoops who still believe in the GOP foist another tin pot dicator onto the rest of us.
Obama will win!!!
It should be clear, even to the unstable, religious zealots in this country that they share in the responsibility for our dismal economic and global standing by their unwavering support for the incompetent, irresponsible, semi-literate, chimpanzee of a George W. Bush. He couldn't do this much damage without the vapid voters who sold their souls two elections in a row. Too often I've heard insipid remarks like "Oh, I know he makes mistakes, but he's got Jesus in his heart". Good God...how stupid can people be?? Well, we've tried it your way - we've tried ignorant; now let's try smart for a while. Obama will have such overwhelming support from all those whose lives have been damanged by the Bush mafia that he will kick McCain's sorry ass come November. There is no way those of us who have any concern for our Country will let you nincompoops who still believe in the GOP foist another tin pot dicator onto the rest of us.
Jimmy the One
bonnie erbe wrote: (Rasmussen and Gallup) show Obama slipping in public support.. a bounce in the wrong direction... Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll shows Obama 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%..
.. Rasmussen Reports is not quality polling, for a couple reasons. First it is generally Computer Responsive Automated Polling (C.R.A.P. for short), & more importantly it is rightwing biased.
.. If you link to it's website (rasmussenreports.com), you will notice a left side friendly link to JOIN mccain's team, with another link to the right showing a picture of a frantic black man waving his hands in the air, & when you click on that link you get an anti obama website 'Stop Him Now' along with 'Save America from the Radical Leftist' and this satyre of monopoly: "Go ahead laugh hysterically as Obama rolls the dice and flip-flops between issues! We hope this scary peek into the games he plays keeps you coming back for more!"
.. Rasmussen is a clever rightwing spindoctor, they've discarded bush as useless (tho they pegged him to beat al gore by 9 pts in 2000, the farthest off of pollsters), they pad favorite rightwing candidates subtley, just enough so their credibility doesn't suffer too much. Where a state is a dem lock they will not try to pad, but mainly in close states they do.
.. If you notice poll consensus', rasmussen will almost always be favoring the rightwing candidate, when compared to other polls; that is if pew or quinnipiac has obama with a 5 pt lead, rass might have it tied.
..I would disregard rasmussen down the stretch, as trying to sway voters to the right, by subtle spin & padding. Gallup is more reputable, & has obama with a 6 pt bounce on friday, likely to go higher by monday.
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