Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Opinion

The Democratic Turning Point

May 07, 2008 12:42 PM ET | Bonnie Erbe | Permanent Link | Print

The May 6 primaries might go down in history as the deciding factor in why America failed to nominate its first female major-party presidential candidate in 2008. It's hard to see after Tuesday's election results how Sen. Hillary Clinton makes the case that she should be the Democratic nominee.

Her campaign pledged to carry on through May races in West Virginia and Kentucky. But in order to woo more superdelegates into her camp—and superdelegates are now the decisive factor in the Democratic nomination race—she had to score a more decisive victory than her narrow 2-point margin in Indiana. And she had to foil Sen. Barack Obama's attempt to score a double-digit lead in North Carolina, which she did not.

Combing through the exit polls, there's only one point of light for Senator Clinton: She prevailed among suburban and rural voters in Indiana. Both categories will become much more critical in the general election:

According to CNN's exit polling, Clinton took 52 percent of the vote in suburban areas, compared with 48 percent for Obama. She won 66 percent of the rural vote, compared with Obama's 34 percent.

The Christian Science Monitor proclaimed: "Illinois Sen. Barack Obama won the North Carolina Democratic primary by a commanding 14 percentage points over New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, proving to critics he can win white Southern votes as well as black. With that win, he has amassed an almost insurmountable lead in both pledged delegates and the popular vote."

I agree with the Monitor on delegates. But I disagree on Southern white voters, who I cannot envision supporting "the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate," which is how the National Journal rated Senator Obama.

Tags: Democrats | presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton

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5 QUESTIONS 5 ANSWERS

Dear Madam

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5 QUESTIONS 5 ANSWERS

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Obama, the Manager

An important leadership test for Barack Obama is whether he can "manage" Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, the herd of superdelegates and the Democratic Convention. This will consist in his deftness of style and wisdom about timing in inviting her onto the ticket as VP, handling her acceptance (if she does), or convincing her voters to stay with him after she declines (if she does.).

Most of all, it is a test of whether Barack can stave off the August food fight that Rush Limbaugh and the other media are salivating over. I predict Obama will succeed in "managing" both the party and the Clintons, no insignificant feat by any measure. We'll see.

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About Bonnie Erbe

Bonnie Erbe is a contributing editor at U.S. News & World Report and hosts PBS's weekly news analysis program, To the Contrary with Bonnie Erbe. She also writes a weekly syndicated newspaper column for Scripps Howard News Service.

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