10 Wild Predictions for 2009
My pal John "the Brain" Tamny over at RealClearMarkets writes a fascinating post on an investment firm that does a "wisdom of crowds" thing with its clients in order to make market forecasts. Here are some of their 2009 predictions, as paraphrased a bit by me:
1) 68 percent think Obama will win.
2) 53 percent think Obamanomics will be bad for the economy.
3) Asked to predict what will be the economy's biggest problem next year: oil/energy (15.5 percent) and inflation (21 percent) got the most votes, while the credit crisis (9.5 percent), Democrats (9.5 percent), and housing (14 percent) rounded out the top five.
4) 30 percent think the S&P 500 will outperform the Russell 2000 by more than 5 percent this year, while another 46 percent believe the S&P will beat the Russell by less than 500 basis points.
5) 67 percent think we'll see $100 oil before it reaches $170/barrel.
6) 55 percent of those surveyed still believe the economy will enter a recession this year.
7) 92 percent feel the dollar will appreciate against the euro this year.
8) 83 percent think a stronger dollar will help the economy over the next five years.
9) 82 percent think John McCain would be good for the economy.
10) 64 percent think equity prices will decrease if capital-gains taxes are increased in 2009.
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Reader Comments
Obamanonmics vs Bushwack'Emics
Here we are after 8 years of great Republican pro-economic policies such as out-of-control irresponsible monetary policy.
Obama's role-model of responsibility brings management principals that will get the average worker inspired to contribute by taking up similar ethics of responsibility.
middle class
everybody that is not in the middle class, bashes that group- well, let me tell you, i am in that group, we bought a house for 225,000 and it was appraised for 250,000 so, the lending bank that did our appraisel said. it is now worth 180,000. the banks over sold us,and now, our neighborhood has foreclosures that the bank again is screwing the people, now, they are underselling every home, and letting the property look like crap, so, people not envolved in this mess, who bought years ago, have lost all their equity, no one is holding these lending banks accountable,, their should be rioting in the streets for all this robbery, they are now being bought up by the rich, imagine that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ds
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