Betting Markets: McCain Closes Gap on Obama

Something is afoot over at the Intrade online betting market. The odds of Barack Obama being elected have tumbled from near 70 percent earlier this month to just below 60 percent right now, while John McCain's odds have risen from just below 30 percent to around 37 percent. That's a huge move for such a widely traded contract this far from Election Day. Maybe it's because if you combine the most recent Gallup and Rasmussen polls—with a combined survey group of close to 6,000—Obama has only a slim 1.5 percentage-point lead despite Obama's tour of Europe. I'm telling you, this is going to be 2000 all over again, with the winner of the popular vote losing the electoral vote. Oh, by the way, the Intrade odds of a recession this year remain at a lowly 20 percent.