Dude, Where's My Recession?

Yet more evidence today that we are not in a recession:

1) The Institute for Supply Management nonmanufacturing index for May came in at 51.7. That is consistent with an economy growing at about 2 percent a year or so.

2) The ADP private payroll report showed a gain of 40,000 jobs for May. This raises the odds that this week's employment report from the Labor Department might show an actual gain—not the decline of 200,000 to 400,000 typically seen during a recession.

What's more, Ben Bernanke's tough dollar talk is helping bring down oil prices, which would translate into lower gas prices if the decline continues. See, markets still work. Supply and demand still works. People and businesses are responding to higher prices by changing habits and practices—though Bernanke provided a nice kicker. And as today's strong productivity numbers show—it was up 3.3 percent year over year—the Amazing American Growth Machine remains a powerful beast. I mean, if you could swap economies with another nation, which would you choose?