Tracking Our Recession Obsession

Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear on the state of the economy (via the Wall Street Journal): "I would be very surprised if the [National Bureau of Economic Research], looking back at this period, would date this as a recession.... There are even indications that revised first-quarter estimates would be slightly stronger than 0.6%. The optimists seem to have been closer to right on that than the pessimists."

And this economic nugget from today's data, as interpreted by the econ team at JPMorgan Chase:

Initial jobless claims declined to 365,000 in the week ending May 3 from 383,000 the prior week, and the four-week average edged up to 367,000 from 364,500. Jobless claims have been especially volatile in recent months, though looking through the noise claims have remained close to 375,000. While claims are elevated, it is comforting and somewhat surprising that they have only pierced the 400,000 level once this year.

Plus, this from the Milken Institute this morning:

The combined forces of a housing market correction, soaring oil prices, a weak labor market, overextended consumers and turmoil in the credit markets outweigh any gains seen in the export markets. ... Quick actions at the federal level to enact fiscal stimulus measures should mitigate the depth and duration of the problem, making it the mildest recession in the post-World War II period.

My take: I would also note that Wal-Mart just reported better-than-expected same-store sales, and retailers seem to be boosting their outlooks for the quarter.