Dude, Where's My Recession?

I like the movie analogy

The "T2" economy: it's like the original T1 economy ("I'll be back") because it always comes back, but the T2 is able to absorb the hits better and fix itself quicker than the original.

Silly premise

cooked numbers along with double cooked numbers on unemployment.Been in RE. for 40 years , you ain't seen nothin yet.Takes a long time (you call it lag) for RE to crash, so stop the silly stock market thought patterns and get ready for many .6 quarters of cooked numbers.How can there be an expansion with RE equity declining every year , not gonna happen , it's going to be a bumpy ride...

NBER

Not only has the NBER never declared a recession without the economy shrinking, they have never declared a recession without two quarters of negative GDP. Not necessarily consecutively, as the rule of thumb goes, but there have always been at least two negative quarters connected to an NBER recession.

However, whether the NBER declares a recession or not, it's pretty clear that the economy sucks right now.

Now this is anecdotal, but here's some food for thought. The hottest game for spring, Grand Theft Auto IV, has just been released and analysts are predicting that this game can rake in over $300 million. Now, that is a conservative estimate, as I believe the game can rake in even more. Also, I just came back from Universal Studios Hollywood and in the one day I was able to spend there, I would have to estimate that there were well over 100,000 people there. Now, if we are in a recession the very first thing that should be cut back on is discretionary spending. Yet people are spending money like drunken sailors. Are some areas of the economy hurting? You bet. Is the entire economy in a recession? I don't know, but it seems people aren't acting like it.

Does inflation impact growth numbers?

IIRC, the entire "growth" for March came from inflation increased spending on gasoline, attributable to higher prices, not higher consumption. If people cut back on spending in housing and construction, appliances, cars, food, and clothing (which they did), where is the growth coming from?

And if bumping the inflation rate up (again, going by memory, the real inflation rate was 9.3% last year when food and energy were factored in) is the only way to increase GDP growth, then aren't we in a recession, particularly if wage growth is lagging behind? If the GDP isn't adjusted for inflation, then a hyper-inflationary economy would look like it was experiencing massive growth, no? Yet it would be a terrible economy in reality. And Greenspan and Bernanke both have been trying to counter deflation by promoting inflation.

I could be wrong; maybe the GDP is adjusted for inflation. Does anyone know?

Recession politics

With Iraq trending down as a political issue, left-leaning pundits have seized on recession predictions to bash Bush and promote their presidential candidate (typically Obama).

As a result, business reporting has morphed in the last 6 months from glassy-eyed cheerleading to rabid anti-Republican fearmongering.

Never before have so many pundits scrutinized so many economic data so closely for signs of recession.

To g Bell of KS:

Just because YOU can't find a job doesn't mean that the economy is in recession. I suggest that you start by working on your written communication skills.

GDP is adjusted for inflation

Thats all

We are nowhere near a recession

I drove from Maryland up to Massachusetts a couple of weekends ago. Every rest stop was absolutely packed- people lining up for food, ice cream, coffee- the Starbucks lines were 20-30 people, waiting to pay $5 for a coffee. The gas stations on the NJ Turnpike had 10-20 cars in line at each pump. This is not peak summer driving season, and the people in line at the Starbucks were not hedge fund managers. I would imagine that in a real recession people would stop taking discretionary trips like these and would bring some sandwiches in a brown bag and a Thermos of coffee (which my mother always used to do on family trips when I was a kid).

Decling Real Estate Values

I love this talk about the tragedy of declining RE values and how that has "implications". If you think about it one-dimensionally then the decline is bad news for current homeowners; however, new home buyers benefit by falling real estate prices.

I think its going to be a rough time for people in the real estate market (lower commisions, fewer sellers) but a good time for younger people with less capital to buy into the market at more reasonable prices.

I think Paul Krugmann has been calling for a real estate meltdown for over ten years now, and as one person already noted; these things take time.

The crises of today ain't what they used to be.... I even heard a talking-head use the term "growth recession."

Ridiculous.

Freeagent Canary in the Coalmine

I'm a creative type -- I write and design for a living. A lot of my friends are in similar businesses, and similarly not "employed" per se.

Last time we had a recession, my friends were having to downsize, cut costs, find smaller homes further from the city, etc BEFORE the media declared the downturn.

This hasn't happened in this "recession", in fact, if anything, business seems quite strong. I wonder about the numbers too.

Maybe the fears are inflated because in general, old media outlets are one of the industries not doing very well?

The Politics of Economic Reporting

"Crash", "Meltdown", "Worst Since the Great Depression", "Crumbling", etc. etc.

The great majority of people, when asked how they are doing, answer that things are going relatively well.

When asked how others are doing, they answer that things are very bad. How do they know how others are doing? They look to the media.

There *are* reasons for concern in the credit and real-estate markets. But the language used to describe this economy is nothing short of the "big lie" meant to scare people into voting for the Democrats. It is a disgrace that the press refuses to present a rational, reality-based perspective on the economy when the hard numbers are right in front of us.

If you doubt that things are not nearly as bad as the press makes them out to be, just look to the investment markets where people with real skin in the game are doing their research and placing their bets.

We're in a recession if the media says we're in a recession

If 1990 is any guide, we'll be hearing about how terrible the economy is, regardless of actual performance, until after the election.

In fact, no recessions in 17 years

Yes, it really has been that long since we had 2 consecutive quarters of decline.

To put that in perspective, there has not been a recession since the Internet began to come into wide use (around 1993).

Economy reports reflective of White House occupant

Have no doubt that if the current economy was running it's course under a Hillary or Obama presidency the headlines would read more along the lines of:

"Economy fights on despite best efforts of previous administration"

Gross Domestic Product

"How can there be an expansion with RE equity declining every year "

Easily, because GDP doesn't measure overall wealth fluctuation, it measures production.

Recession...or not ?

Just to add a snippet of reality to the situation, I'll remind everyone that all

initial GDP #'s are revised 2-3 times. We won't even know what the Q4-07

GDP# was for sure for another several months. The official Q1# won't

be known until later this year. Jumping all over any initial GDP report

to buttress an arguement is a sure sign that an agenda and an attempt

to spin the news is at play.

As they say, Jimmy P., if the shoe fits....

economic illiterates seek opportunity, fail

The Dems have been trying to push the economy over the line by down-talking economic activity, but they have missed the point, which is that inflation is the real restraint on activity right now. If they had been freaking out about inflation and the weak dollar they'd look pretty smart, instead they focused on banking and base activity and they've got egg on their faces.

Well, Starbucks is down

Bill Smugs in MA -

Starbucks profits are down 21%. So that is a sign of people cutting back on discretionary spending, right?

To that Dude of TX -

Thanks for answering my question.

Hoo-rahing a paper economy.

Denial. Virtually every indicator is heading south, and many are accelerating.

"Recession" is an arbitrary definition. The Fed, which is the great problem behind the current crisis, has, to take an optimistic view, bargained the US dollar to a place where it's boosted relative quality of life for some time.

But nobody knows the endgame of a purely manipulated, paper economy.

The US dollar is being devalued and even unpegged in places. Real interest rates are actually negative. A trillion dollars in global credit market markdowns. RE turning through -25% year-over-year in major markets. The biggest debtor nation in history. A nearly exponential money supply. The Fed only a couple of advertised points above where Japan went over 20 years ago and still hasn't recovered.

You can't just keep turning the crank forever. This is just the beginning.

Anyone surprised....it IS an election year

I still remember the newspaper headlines , literally the day after Bill Clinton won his first four years in the white house

"Economy Not as Bad as We Thought"

Real estate decline?

Just spent a few days in Las Vegas, where the foreclosure rate on residential real estate is supposedly one of the highest in the country. What we don't hear about is the building boom on the Strip--massive casinos and condo complexes going up everywhere, many with round the clock construction work. Isn't that "real estate," too?

Not so bad

Given this is an anecedotal but honestly this is the best year I've ever had financially. Just landed a job paying me more than I've ever made in my life (and I'm still only working 40 hours). Same with my wife (she got her job in 2007). Paid off $25,000 in debt this past 12 months. Life is good.

You know who this 'recession' is hurting? People who went nuts flipping houses but didn't know what they were doing. People who got greedy. People who got into real estate market looking for a quick buck and buying into all the hype. So yeah, life does suck a little for you right now.

Side note: few of us on this board have actually lived through a real a depression the likes of the Great Depression. Honestly, as a country most of us don't really know what it means to go through a recession (but our media acts like the end of the world is near!). The reality is that we still go on buying our Starbucks and other luxury "necessities" like there's no tomorrow!

So then why all the panic? Why all the news about this 'awful' recession? Politics, politics, politics. Instead do a poll and ask the average person on the street exactly how their economic circumstances have changed this past year. Just ask an average person like me.

LOST VALUE OR BACK TO REALITY

I guess somebody who claims that "RE" values have dropped 25% "year after year" (?) has forgotten about the 25% gains year after year that preceeded those losses. It seems to me RE values are just normallizing. Also different parts of the country are having different experiences. Some areas are definitely depressed, but many areas are doing OK...not great, but OK. How can any economy grow indefinitely and infinitely?

Recession? My rear end!

"Starbucks profits are down 21%. So that is a sign of people cutting back on discretionary spending, right?"

Ella of Ok, Starbucks is and has been taking a huge hit from competitors since its basic products are poorly turned out and over-priced! Dunkin Donuts and Mickey D's are killing them with better tasting coffee at half the price!

Or don't you get national financial news down there in Sooner Land?

Lots of complaining here in COLO, because unemployment is projected to increase all the way up to 4.1 %!!! I remember when " structural unemployment" was thought to be 5.5%.

This spring we Springsteen sell a couple of million in tickets in about 15 minutes and good seats for NCAA b-ball first rounds reselling for $1400 (6 games).

Yeah, things are tough all over.

To C Dorfman

Our economy is based upon "capitalism", the root for which is "caput" in Latin meaning "head" referring to "brains"; meaning the basis of our economy is what people can imagine in their minds, not just what they physically produce!

"Grand Theft Auto" is only a series of ideas set down in computer code and placed on cheap plastic discs, but it generates an incredible amount of wealth for its producers which thye will use to create other crazy games and probably use to buy a few over-priced Starbucks products!!

Economies wil stop growing when people stop or are forced to stop, thinking and imagining, not before!

it's investment, not consumption

The true measure of business cycles is not personal consumption (sorry all you Keynesian holdouts!!!) but investment. The last five (official) recessions pers. cons. has either stayed flat or increased modestly. Where the bus. cycle is obvious is in investment, which plummets during a recession. The last few quarters real investment has declined as has inventory valuation. However, it is interesting to note that the length and depth of the latest investment downturn is historically about average for a recession, and should if the past holds, be turning around. If it doesn't, then we'll know for certain that we're in a recession. And only then will we know the depth of it.

When people say "the economy sucks", or something to that effect, they can only speak from a personal or local perspective. It might "suck" for them or their family or friends, but in the aggregate, that's another issue. There is no doubt we are in a slowdown (or contraction), but that is an altogether different position than a recession (trough).

In fact, we have had such long term low employment, we could clearly have been in an inflationary gap. And, given our huge trade imbalances, it could be the case that the large imports actually had a deflationary effect on the economy. Only now are we seeing inflation creep up as the dollar is depreciating. Thus, the adjustment we are experiencing: higher prices, increased unemployment, decline/slowing in GDP, are all characteristic of a return to natural real GDP, not a "recession".

Since investment has driven the last 25 year record growth, congress should eliminate the cap gains tax and balance the deficit to spur investment and free up loanable funds for business.

Newspaper Network TV Recession

Where do you get the idea that all is woe?

By reading the papers and watching network TV.

Whose business model is imploding?

The newspapers and network TV.

Lemme 'splain:

Talking heads and ink-stained wretches see their pals & co-workers losing their jobs.

The scribblers are scared silly because (deep down) they're aware that they have no talents/skills/abilities that anyone values outside their hothouse media world.

Fear + (well-founded) lack of self-worth + Nano particle of evidence = Sky Falling Down!

Now you know!

PS Doin' fine in the worst state economy in the US! Help wanted signs all over...

Recession - the primary definition

To: "Not so bad" (by Dave Green of NC)

If history bores you, scroll to the end of my tale for my thoughts on what "recession" means to the proletariat.

You might be amazed at the number of who people remember the Great Depression quite well. You can check goverment statistics for the number of people over 100, and the number born during the Depression. Visit nearly any retirement or nursing home in the country and you'll meet other people who remember those Depression years. Ask them to share their stories.

My five-generation family of over 200 (including spouses) has a motto: If you don't have cash for 'wants' don't buy them, and always put as much as you can into a investments that pay interest. The only exception is family homes bought with fixed-rate mortgages paid off as soon as possible.

The eldest two generations in my family remember the Great Depression. The ages of generation 1 still living are 104, 102, 99, and 85. All were born and raised on a small ranch bought by an ancestor in the 1840s. During the Depression the family fared reasonably well by selling livestock and poultry and, except for sugar, coffee and rice, raised their own food. The eldest three graduated from a 'teacher's' college, their tuition paid by working as housekeepers 'in town' supplemented by their mother's 'chicken and egg' money. The first two returned to the ranch and taught grades 1 - 12 in a two-room schoolhouse. The third married and taught school in another state. They still have sharp brains and an avid interest in history and politics. The youngest, with his two sons, runs the family ranch. They have no 'hired' hands. His work begins at dawn and ends at sundown, six days a week.

My dad, whose parents were very poor, worked his way through college and grad school and was in the Navy during WWII. During the war we lived in Richmond, CA. Food and many other things were rationed, so we grew what vegetables we could in the garden of our tiny house. An elderly widow in back of us raised chickens. We traded vegetables for chickens and eggs. Mom made most our clothes; the rest were hand-me-downs from older cousins, and we handed our 'out-growns' down to younger cousins.

My husband and I (Generation 2) were 'depression' babies, now in our early 80s. His family was so poor he, along with the other kids in the little town went to school barefoot. He was smart, eventually managed to work his way through medical school, and devoted his career to serving the poor. He never became a 'rich' doctor' but we always set aside what we could for retirement because we though of "Social Security" as a Ponzi scheme for political use.

Finally, RECESSION. American Heritage Dictionary, Fourth Edition: "recession: 1. The act of withdrawing. 2. An extended, moderate decline in general business activity."

By definition #1, many people who aren't greedy and/or 'flippers' are withdrawing j(receeding) from spending on "wants". The cost of their needs (food, gas, clothing) have risen far faster than their incomes or, in the case of retirees, income from conservative investments. A great fear of knowledgeable proletariats, mentioned only in passing (if at all) by the MSM, is that the Democrats, especially if Obama is elected, will take even more of their incomes when the Bush tax cuts, which so many believe affect only "the rich," expire.

Quote: On taxes, Obama again sounded confused about capital gains. He said he was "mindful that we've got to keep our capital gains tax to a point where we can actually get more revenue." So why does he want to almost double the rate? He claimed "that's not something that's going to affect the average person with a 401(k)," even though it's a tax hike on the 100 million Americans who own stock. Source: "Obama's Fox Trot" - Investor's Business Daily - Posted Monday, April 28, 2008

Quote: At a June 28, 2004 Democratic fundraiser in San Francisco, [Hillary Clinton] told supporters that "Many of you are well enough off that ... the tax cuts may have helped you," Clinton said, according to the Associated Press. "We're saying that for America to get back on track, we're probably going to cut that short and not give it to you. "We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good."

Quote: Tampa Dave writes: Friday, February, 22, 2008 10:13 AM

The Wall Street Journal’s Steve Moore has done the math on Obama’s tax plan. He says it will add up to a 39.6 percent personal income tax, a 52.2 percent combined income and payroll tax, a 28 percent capital-gains tax, a 39.6 percent dividends tax, and a 55 percent estate tax.

People suffering from the inflation of the cost of 'needs,' and who also understand the intentions of the Democrats are withdrawing (receeding) from consumerism.

My economy

I am in sales (selling to suppliers of consumer product manufacturers) and first qarter was good - about 20% over plan. My biggest customer, which had been lagging called today and said they were increasing orders because things are picking up. They sell to paint manufacturers - so paint is picking up. Guess what that means? Yeah - walls need to be painted both re - decorations and new construction. Best investment acive I've ever read (Gerald Appel) is to do the counter-media strategy, becasue business reporting is 180 degrees off. when the NY Times say eeverything is bad,bad, bad it is time to buy, buy, buy. Sell on good news. Remember newspapers employ journalism majors - the first ones to say "They didn't tell me there was math in this class!"

Capital gains, and classification of "rich"

I simply can't vote for a candidate, regardless of party, who talks down to us like we are unaware of the numbers.

I cannot accept that my parents may have to pay even more capital gains on their retirement property simply because they were patient and made wise real estate choices over the last thirty years.

I cannot accept the lowering of the classification of "rich", raising taxes even higher on a group of people who already pay 39% of their income to taxes.

We read the actual news, so we know.

What?

Oh my, what is Sen. Obama (D-Buyer's Remorse) going to do now? "Change!" "Hope!"

recession? Only under the GOP...

There HAS to be a recession. The Democrats said so. The MSM said so. The Democrats need one because they need to blame Bush for a bad economy. Finally. Only if there is a recession, are the Dems able to justify a change. God forbid that Bush gets any credit for anything at all. Complete employment. Stock Market over 11000. Lately, it seems as if recessions only happen if the media convinces the public that there is one happening. If you examine the actual causes of the slow down, liberal policies will be a big reason. Too much gov't interference. Too much spending. To much grandstanding about oil and the war. How is demanding that the oil companies give up 10 billion dollars going to lower the price of oil? NO exploration. No nukes. Too much pork. Remember the banks worrying about "red lining" bad credit risks and they were forced to find a way to lend to those people? It wasn't about race. It was about risk. And now, those risks have become actual liabilities. Fancy that.

Bush outsmarts them -- yet again

W has the same move: Sit back, let the Dems demand something, then give it to them. It's incredible. His father made the mistake of coming out of a (very, very mild) downturn one quarter too late; he should have taken it in the 2nd Q (the way W is), not the 3rd. The economy will be spritely by July, roaring in September; same with oil: let the futures geeks extend themselves to the max, allow the early summer refinery switchover to take full effect, then open the spigots on the SOR to full--and once again, he's not outstupided. W is really amazing. I'll bet he indicts a few of them too.

GDP per Capita

It should be pointed out that the main definition of recession has little real meaning in the lives of most people. A much better measure is GDP per capita. When GDP fails to grow as fast as population growth you are in recession. The lives of the average person are getting worse. By this definition we are already in a recession.

The Economist ran a great article on this a couple months back if anyone wants to read more.

In-the-Know and the Common Cluecless

Recession is on the minds of the class who track the economy on an almost ritual daily basis. There's no denying the fact there is turbulence in many sectors of our economy. Credit is virtually shriveling under the strain and inflation is nearing the roof.

Hunky-dory is the class who track when the next promotional offerings of Starbuck's latte and jean sale at Nordstrom. While some of us who are buckling down our spending and bracing for what's to come, others are blindly burning money unaware of the plight ahead. When the time come when easy-access money and credit becomes widespread unavailable, perhaps then we can all see the real picture. For the time being, I can only thank the hunkie-dories for keeping our economy afloat.

So many folks who WANT a bad year...

...but the economy just keeps on growing...

What's a doomsayer to do? Maybe they can follow the lead of the climate change folks and claim that we're really in a recession but we won't see the external results for ten or twenty years...

If only they had actually studied when they took those general education economics and finance classes at their university...

Dude...Where are your glasses???????

You must be from Mars or you are paid by the federal resevere for the spin the the economy..

gdp -.6, or not bad, take out the increased inventory numbers and its negative.

consumer spending up ..up on what, higher priced gasoline. That a postive note.

We only lost 20k jobs last month, of course the previous two months are revised with greater loss as will this month be.

Real Estate prices are still droping, forclosure are rising. All of the accomdation that the Federal Reserve as put in the maket as never been received by the consumer in the form of lower rates. Lender have tighten credit to the point half of all cosumer will never re qualifyy for a refi or a purchase. Where in the first inninig and we have a lot more pain to come.

Hang the GDP!

As a middle class teacher, whose disposable income is dropping, I beg to differ with you. It always amazes me how those, like you, who are making a very good income (6 figures?) and are not personally fazed by the downturn can say “Recession? What recession?” I think that more than half of Americans, including myself, have been in a recession for several years.

Hang the GDP! That 0.6% number will be revised two to three more times in the next few months --- probably downward. Yet, if it remains above a negative number, you, others like you, and President Bush, will continue to tout that we are not in a recession. Americans making less than the median income ($50K/year) are hurting. Many have been borrowing aggressively over the past several years to keep up with the rising cost of living and are now in debt up to their eyeballs. (Not me – I don’t have any debt, except for a very, very low mortgage payment.) With credit tightening for mortgages and credit cards, borrowing is no longer an option for many lower-income households.

More bad news: Bankruptcy filings by U.S. consumers jumped 47.7 percent in April from one year ago. The manufacturing report showed a contraction for April. Construction spending dropped sharply in March, with housing activity plunging by the largest amount on record. Jobs have been shed for four straight months – and remember that the unemployment rate conveniently does not include those who have given up looking for a job.

Need I mention the price of gas/diesel and what it is doing to the trucking, farming industries and to the everyday American trying to get to and from work?

As the central bank cut its key funds rate in an attempt to boost the economy and stave off a recession, the cuts are also inflationary, leading investors to pour money into commodity futures as a hedge against the falling dollar. As a result, record high commodity prices are causing farmers to have to increase their prices. The Agriculture Department's chief economist told Congress Thursday that prices for corn and other food commodities will remain at 'historically high levels in coming years as the U.S. ethanol industry expands. This is causing American consumers (the whole world, actually) to face rising prices at the grocery store (look at the price of a gallon of milk – doubled in one year). The consequence is that food banks, who serve mainly the elderly and homeless, are being swamped with applicants who have jobs (according to Atlanta Community Food Bank Executive Director Bill Bolling). Millions of lower income people are literally having to decide whether to pay the doctor bill or to buy food, to pay the heating bill or to buy food.

With the overall economy growing at a mere 0.6 percent annual rate for the second quarter in a row, consumer spending advanced by only 1 percent. That was down sharply from the 2.9 percent gain for all of 2007 and the 3.1 percent gain for 2006. It was the weakest showing since 2001, the last time the economy was in a recession. Americans have cut back on a wide variety of discretionary purchases, conserving their cash for necessary spending. Look at Starbucks: second-quarter profit fell 28 percent as U.S. consumers responded to rising food and gas prices by making fewer latte runs.

Warren Buffet (my hero!) said on Monday that the U.S. economy is in a recession that will be longer and deeper than most people think. When Warren Buffet speaks, I listen. I am cutting my budget to the essentials – no going to the movies, no eating out, no Starbucks (never bought Starbucks, anyway), no vacation away from home – and continuing to save my pennies. I can only hope that the recession will soon make you feel the pain, too --- then maybe you will change your tune.

recession

The real problem with a false recession

The real problem is not the natural cyclic ups and downs of the economy, it is using the cycle for political purposes. Maybe if the Republicans were true patriots they would willingly just give up power, so the righteous Democrats could take their just postions in both Congress and the White House.

That way they (the dems) could show us just how great Keynesian economics works and just how wonderful it would be to have a government intervening in every aspect of our lives.

We are always in danger by those who tells us the sky is falling. Eventually, something come out of the sky which prove their point.

The real problem with a false recession

The real problem is not the natural cyclic ups and downs of the economy, it is using the cycle for political purposes. Maybe if the Republicans were true patriots they would willingly just give up power, so the righteous Democrats could take their just postions in both Congress and the White House.

That way they (the dems) could show us just how great Keynesian economics works and just how wonderful it would be to have a government intervening in every aspect of our lives.

We are always in danger by those who tells us the sky is falling. Eventually, something will come out of the sky which will prove their point.

Hope!

Why worry? China will keep bailing us out just as long as it's still profitable.

Ready to admit it

There are people, myself included, who have refused to accept that we are in a recession because by definition we have not had two quarters of negative growth. But I'm ready to admit it. We are in a recession.

How deep in a hole do you have to be before you admit you're in one? President Bush has stated to the nation several times in the past few weeks that we are not in a recession. He refuses to say the “R” word. Me thinks that Bush doth protest too much – which points to recession. On the other hand, Warren Buffett, of Berkshire Hathaway, says we are in a recession. Buffett is willing to look at the facts on the ground and does not need the actual GDP report to show up on his desk. He certainly will not be waiting for two bad quarters before he acts.

Every time it appears that government officials, such as Bernanke, is about to admit that we are on the brink of, or actually now in, a recession, they back away. The most they will admit to is that it’s possible, or “we don’t have enough evidence at this time.”

The truth is the government treats recession as a pariah. They are afraid if they admit to it, people will panic. Where a recession is concerned, the public will stop spending and start saving (bad for the economy, according to Keynesian economics). Furthermore, the party in power does not want to admit to a recession and be blamed for it – or they lose the next election.

The truth is that the government is living in a fantasy world. They mistakenly believe the American people cannot handle the truth and that soothing words from the President and his aides will convince people that the administration has everything under control. They hope their persuasive abilities will counteract the actual evidence seen at the grocery store, the gas station, and housing signs saying “Reduced” and “Foreclosure.”

The American people are smarter than the leaders they elect and most of the economists out there. They don’t need to wait for the National Bureau of Economic Research to tell them that the US economy is in a recession. They are already pulling in their spending and looking forward to the rebate to help them pay bills. (Bush’s brand of Keynesian economics – the government gives out rebate to help public start spending again). You won’t see much of a rise in purchases of discretionary goods this time around.

To BW of Texas

I have excellent communication skills, 3.75 degrees, and many years experience working and moving up the corporate ladder. The economy right now is clearly more difficult for some than others. It is also dependent on the field you are in:- it is not just folks in RE that are suffering. Have you read what is happening with colleges dropping students loans?

N.