Sunday, July 20, 2008

Money & Business

Capital Commerce

Will a Recession Sink Into Depression?

March 11, 2008 11:56 AM ET | James Pethokoukis | Permanent Link

Which letter of the alphabet best signifies the future direction of the economy: V (a sharp drop followed by an immediate and powerful upturn), U (a more gradual drop, followed by slow recovery, or W (a double-dip recession)? Listening to some economic bears out there, maybe L is the right letter—you know, the economy drops and stays down. Indeed, a few experts do think recession could potentially morph into depression because of the credit crunch. Standard & Poor's, in fact, just put out an economic report titled "No Depression" that counteracts some of that sort of hysteria. And the highly respected UCLA Anderson Forecast reaffirmed its prediction of no recession, much less depression. Make it sing, Reuters:

The U.S. economy will shrink in the second quarter, but avoid a recession this year as housing's drag will ease in the second half, helping normal growth return next year, according to a UCLA Anderson Forecast.... "The data don't yet add up to a recession and there is nothing here to challenge the basic story of sluggishness that we have had for two years," the forecasting unit's report said, adding: "Our no-recession forecast remains nervously intact."

Tags: economy | recession

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About the Capital Commerce Blog

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James Pethokoukis is the money and politics blogger for U.S. News & World Report , where he writes the monthly Capital Commerce magazine column. Pethokoukis is also the assistant managing editor of the magazine's Money & Business section. He has written for many publications including the New York Times, the American, USA Today, Investor's Business Daily, and TCS Daily. Pethokoukis is also an official CNBC contributor and appears frequently on that network's Kudlow & Company, Power Lunch, and The Call shows. In addition, he has appeared numerous times on MSNBC, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, CNN, and Nightly Business Report on PBS. A 1989 graduate of Northwestern University where he double majored in Soviet politics and American history and a 1991 graduate of the Medill School of Journalism, Pethokoukis is a 2002 Jeopardy! champion.

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