A Bit of Cheer: Dow 15,000 by Year-End
Superbulls Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein over at First Trust Advisers are still upbeat despite all the market chaos of recent days:
There is little to no sign of the kinds of economic imbalances that preceded past recessions. Inventory-to-sales ratios are razor thin. And during the past four years, businesses have invested a smaller share of their profits than during any four-year period since the 1960s. As a result, there is no massive overhang of plant and equipment investment like there was after the Y2K-related surge in 2000. Corporate profit margins remain high and labor compensation remains relatively low, meaning firms are still in a position to hire and bid up wages. ...
Yes, the home building industry is a man-made disaster area, with the level of housing starts down more than 55% from the peak two years ago. But home building has been declining for so long that it now comprises too small a share of the economy to, by itself, push the economy into recession. ...
The only plausible scenario for recession is a major pullback by consumers. Here, the pessimistic worldview gets downright circular, claiming consumers will slow their spending because they will lose jobs due to consumers having slowed their spending. But incomes grew more than 3% above inflation last year, even after taking out income taxes as well as monthly obligations such as mortgages, rent, car loans/leases, property taxes, and debt service on credit cards. ...
With the economy picking up steam in 2008, our forecast is that the Dow moves up as well and our year-end 2008 forecast is 15,000, with the S&P 500 at 1625. Once recession fears prove unfounded, US equities will soar. Those who maintain their appetite for risk will be richly rewarded sooner than they think.
Tags: economy | interest rates | recession
Tools: 
Share
|
| Comments (3)
Reader Comments
...
Aria7948@yahoo.com
GREETING FROM DR PAUL HANSON
From: The Desk of Mr. Paul Hanson.
Auditing and Accounting Unit.
Union Bank of Nigeria Plc.
#36 Marina Street, Lagos, Nigeria.
Telephone: +23480-37444710
E-mail: drpaulhanson@yahoo.com
Greetings,
With due respect and great pleasure, I wish to solicit and crave your indulgence to make this project request which I hope will not come to you as a surprise, hence I plead for your pardon.
I am Mr. Paul Hanson, in the Auditing and Accounting Unit, Foreign operations Department Union Bank of Nig, PLC #36 Marina Lagos Island and I have an urgent and confidential transaction which you might be interested in;
On April 14th, 2004 precisely, Engr.Steve Moore made a (fixed) deposit of US$15.500.000.00(Fifteen Million Five Hundred Thousand US Dollars) in my branch. On maturity up till now he never came back for it, and finally we discovered from his contract employee Empire Construction Corporation (ECC) that Late Engr.Steve Moore died in an automobile accident. On further investigations it was clear that he died without making a will. All attempts by the Australian to trace his next of kin were fruitless.
According to Nigerian banking law, after five years,the money will be reverted into the account of the Nigerian Government. That is, if the account owner is certified death and nobody comes forward to claim it.
I therefore, solemnly request to present you as the next of kin/ beneficiary of this whole sum. This is very simple and will be done legally. I am using my position and connections in the bank here to do the entire document work for the transfer of this fund into your bank account. We shall also employ the services of a reputable attorney/lawyer who will obtain all necessary documents and letter of administration in your favor for this transfer. This transaction is 100%risk free guaranteed.
As you reply, I will like you to furnish me with the following informations:
(1)Your full name and contact address,
(2)Your full address and telephone number,
(3)Your date of birth and occupation.
This information will enable me prepare the necessary documents in your favour as might be required by the bank.
Finally, give me your words that you will be faithful to me in this transaction to keep this proposition in absolute confidentiality and trust then, we can work out the details. I am just doing this to save the life of my cancer dying Dad and also this will make great changes to our lives positively and can as well land me into a big trouble if a great care is not taking.
The money will be shared in the ratio of 60% and 40% that is for me and you respectively.
I await your urgent reply.
Mr. Paul Hanson.
Add your thoughts
All comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive. For more information, please see our Comments FAQ.advertisement
