Friday, July 10, 2009

Money & Business

Capital Commerce

Betting Markets: McCain Closes Gap on Obama

July 31, 2008 04:29 PM ET | James Pethokoukis | Permanent Link | Print

Something is afoot over at the Intrade online betting market. The odds of Barack Obama being elected have tumbled from near 70 percent earlier this month to just below 60 percent right now, while John McCain's odds have risen from just below 30 percent to around 37 percent. That's a huge move for such a widely traded contract this far from Election Day. Maybe it's because if you combine the most recent Gallup and Rasmussen polls—with a combined survey group of close to 6,000—Obama has only a slim 1.5 percentage-point lead despite Obama's tour of Europe. I'm telling you, this is going to be 2000 all over again, with the winner of the popular vote losing the electoral vote. Oh, by the way, the Intrade odds of a recession this year remain at a lowly 20 percent.

Tags: presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain

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Reader Comments

Obama

How on earth could a black man, of coloured race, a boy, could even be considered as a leader of the free world yet alone the representative of the American People. Well it's because.......he has a brain....an I.Q.of around 180. Whereas George's I.Q. is around room temperature. Whereas MCaine whats his name around 125 before flying into the arms of the Viet Cong. Wereas Sarah has above average I.Q. but her brain belongs to God. As they say the good guys may go to heaven but the rsoles rule the world. But I am baracking for Obama to win because I want to be on the money!

Iowa

The Iowa Electronic Markets are narrowing too. If you do your own Real Clear Politics electoral college mapping, it's a toss-up. Obamamania seems to be running out of steam.

Obama

Obama wants change, that is , the change in your pockets.

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U.S. News business reporter Matthew Bandyk examines the issues, people, and debates that shape the nexus of political and economic life in the nation's capital. Reach him by email at mbandyk@usnews.com.

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