Entries for October 2006

The Washington Post/ABC News poll out today brings unhappy news for a Republican Party worried about retaining control of both houses of Congress. It seems, according to this survey, that the GOP is losing the voters both sides covet the most–independents. And they're not losing them on the economy. They're losing them on a single issue–Iraq–that is clearly becoming the dominant theme in this campaign. And that's not good for Republicans.

Overnight, then Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker once said, can be a lifetime in politics. And we have seen that this election cycle already–with the Mark Foley scandal affecting House races around the country. Put that on top of the war in Iraq, questions about the economy, and an unpopular president, and come up with an obvious conclusion: This is not a great time for any Republican to be running for re-election.

That's going to be the interesting question to watch this campaign year, and no one really knows–not yet, at least. To wit: Do the national polls, which show a distrust for Republicans, an interest in changing control of the Congress, and a widespread dislike for the war in Iraq, mean that the Republicans are cooked? As Tip O'Neill used to day, "all politics is local." Except when it's not.

After a week of playing the blame-game in the saga over who-knew-what about former Rep. Mark Foley and the page scandal, the Republicans have finally hit upon a strategy: Keep House Speaker Dennis Hastert, and hunker down. There are a few reasons they decided not to throw Hastert to the wolves: They like him, but more important, they believe that if he had quit, he would have to admit some form of culpability, and, by the way, they have no one to take his place. After all, who could they name? Most of Hastert's lieutenants have been so busy blaming each other, they all look ridiculous.