In Memphis, GOP raises the curtain for '08 race

MEMPHIS–It was hard to believe–and kind of scary, in fact–that more than two years before the next presidential election, there I was, at a Republican straw poll with a host of GOP presidential wannabes: Sens. Bill Frist, John McCain, George Allen, and Sam Brownback; and Govs. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Not to mention hordes of fellow media members (TV and print) who, while whining about the fact that it's really too early to go to one of these things, were all secretly happy to reunite with old campaign friends.

Kind of like a college reunion a couple of years after you've graduated.

The politics proved interesting–and revealing of where the party is trying to go. Almost every candidate sang this song: We're spending too much and increasing the deficit. Sure, Frist said, there have been Katrina and the war, but we've got to get this under control. So, too, for Romney. After all, it's easier to play to a conservative audience on cutting spending than on almost anything else.

Particularly the war in Iraq. Most were supportive–in vague terms–of both the war and the president. But McCain, as usual, was the most interesting. Not only did he openly endorse the president on the Dubai port controversy, but he also embraced the president on Iraq–and cleverly told folks not to vote for him in the straw poll but instead for the president.

"So if any friends here are thinking about voting for me, please don't. Just write in President Bush's name," McCain said. "For the next three years, with the country at war, he's our president–and the only one who must have our support."

In the end, Frist won the straw poll with 37 percent of the vote. Not a surprise, given that half of the delegates in Memphis were from Tennessee. And did McCain's ploy work? Yes and no. McCain himself got only 4.6 percent of the vote, but the Bush write-in got 10.3 percent. Added together, that was good enough for second place. The surprise of the weekend: Romney, who was the actual second-place winner with 14.4 percent of the vote.

So what does all of this mean? Nothing really, except that the presidential race is off and running. (As Tom Rath, a Republican committeeman from New Hampshire who traveled to Memphis, told me, "It's spring training.") But one more point, which all speakers were united on, and with good reason: If the Republicans lose either the House or the Senate in 2006, it's a huge problem for the party heading into 2008. So most speakers on stage last weekend will be on the road campaigning for GOP candidates–and collecting chits along the way.

As the chairman of the Republican National Committee told me in Memphis: "I think the first primary of 2008 is this next November of 2006." He's got a point. If the Republicans have a poor showing, the ol' Big Mo will be with the Democrats–if they can figure out how to take advantage of it. And that's always a big "if."