Republicans Get Good News in Polls as They Close the Ballot Gap on Democrats
By Michael Barone, Thomas Jefferson Street blog
Republicans have the lead in the generic ballot in the Rasmussen poll and are running even in that question in the latest NPR poll. The Republican lead in Rasmussen is 41-39 percent, with Democrats at the low end of the 39-50 percent range they've been over the past year and Republicans at the top end of their 34-41 percent range.
Is this just statistical noise? Quite possibly. But if I were chairman of the NRCC I would sure be looking at targeting a whole lot more races than I had imagined I would three months ago.
Rasmussen tells me that he has been tracking this question since January 2004 and that "Occasional polls may have shown the Rs ahead, but it's been a long time." He agrees that this may just be statistical noise, but notes that the gap between the parties has closed since the November 2008 election, and that that is more the result of the Democratic number sagging than of the Republican number rising.
The NPR poll similarly finds party identification today at 42-42 percent, as compared to 51-40 percent Democratic in October 2006. Note that this also represents a decline for Democrats, not a gain for Republicans.
I think there's a danger for Republicans in over reliance on these numbers. That if they just hang back and criticize Obama or the Democrats, then everything will be all right again. That's one possible scenario, but far from the only one, or even the most likely. If in war the enemy gets a vote, in politics the other party gets a chance to do things differently too, as Bill Clinton did successfully (for him, and almost for his party) in 1995-96.
Republicans need to present alternative public policies and their vision for the future. Equality in the generic vote is not enough if most people scorn both parties. Which seems to be about where we are now.
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Tags: Democrats | politics | Republicans | polls
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Reader Comments
outraged
Don't confuse whining for outrage. The complete disregard for our Constitution; voting on Bills that are not even read; spending more is not an investment; lieing to the people; etc the list goes on. This is true on both sides of the isle. Politicians are destroying America. Not whining, I'm outraged.
I smell revolution!
Don't kid yourself
The conservatives are doing what they do best - complain and whine. That only works to a point
Reply to Rich in Iowa
You want examples of Obama lies? Ok, my pleasure:
Obama claims he is bipartisan, but voted with his party 97% of the time.
Obama claimed that McCain planned to cut $880 billion from Medicare. Not true according to Annenberg Fact Check
Obama said he was asked to wear a dead soldiers bracelet. The fact is the family asked him NOT to wear it.
Obama claimed that all new spending was self-funding. Oooops, off by $3.5 trillion according to Tax Policy Center
Obama lied about Kissinger's views of diplomacy. Kissinger confirmed the lie.
Obama said his mother was on food stamps, but still sent him to the best college. His grandmother paid for his education
Need I go on? Obama is a liar. Or maybe it's the teleprompter telling him to lie...
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