Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Opinion

Michael Barone

Minnesota Senate Race, Plagued With Defects, Could End in Supreme Court or Revote

March 02, 2009 10:34 AM ET | Michael Barone | Permanent Link | Print

By Michael Barone, Thomas Jefferson Street blog

Will the Minnesota Senate race end up in the U.S. Supreme Court? Here's an article saying it might. Gov. Tim Pawlenty says Sen. Norm Coleman has "a plausible chance, a decent chance" to prevail. He says a second election is "highly unlikely" under Minnesota law. But couldn't that law be changed?

My understanding is that the legal case currently before a three-judge panel is hopelessly compromised. Previous rulings in different counties have been inconsistent, with ballots with one kind of alleged defect counted in some counties and ballots with the same kind of alleged defect not counted in others. Most of the inconsistent rulings have tended to favor Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party candidate Al Franken, which is why he has overcome the lead Coleman had when the votes were being tabulated in November. Some allegedly defective ballots have been counted and then commingled with others, so that the decision to count them cannot as a practical matter be reversed. This would seem to me to raise equal-treatment problems as described in Bush v. Gore , even if the Supreme Court tries to say that Bush v. Gore was a one-of-a-kind case and not really precedent.

If the Minnesota courts ultimately issue a certificate of election declaring Franken the winner, then I think Majority Leader Harry Reid will move to seat him; if they issue a certificate declaring Coleman the winner, then I think Reid will get the Senate to refuse to seat him. In that case, another election will be necessary, as occurred in New Hampshire in 1975. In that contest, the Democrat, John Durkin, won the special by a significant margin, and held the seat until he was defeated for re-election by Warren Rudman in 1980.

Who would win a special election in Minnesota? It's not clear. On the one hand, in the special elections held since last November—the Georgia Senate race and Louisiana House runoffs in December, the Virginia House of Delegates races in January, the Fairfax County (Virginia) Board of Supervisors special election in February—there has been a much bigger drop-off in Democratic turnout, as compared with Nov. 4, 2008, than in Republican turnout. That would suggest Coleman would win in Minnesota. But the November 2008 Senate race in Minnesota wasn't a two-man contest. Coleman and Franken each got 42 percent of the vote, while Dean Barkley—the independent party candidate who served in the Senate by appointment of Gov. Jesse Ventura to fill the unexpired term of Paul Wellstone, who died in a plane crash in October 2002—got 15 percent of the vote. The Barkley voters tended to vote for Barack Obama for president; in a two-way race (assuming Barkley doesn't run in the special), they might be supposed to be more likely to vote for the DFL Franken than the Republican Coleman.

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Tags: Minnesota | Senate | Norm Coleman

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Reader Comments

LETS HOPE ONE COMEDIAN DOESNT GIVE THE MARXIST HIS FILIBUSTER

The only thing preventing full spectrum democratic socialism in this country is that one senate race. Look all around... wondering about employment? Well try telling corporations and small businesses to hire at a business tax around 35%-45% rate. This is one of the few parties and demagogues that believes you can help the worker out by punishing the employer. They talk about loopholes in that tax though? Well that maybe so... but since only mega titan corporations can lobby and hire attorneys and hire more "people" at places like Delotte and Touche it doesnt make a difference. Small businesses employ 70% of the nation in the private sector, these people are going to take away independence and trade it in for servile welfare statism. Once they can destroy the private sector vez e vez taxation and then inflation people will have no option but to trade in their self-respect and freedom over to a bureaucrat and their falling dollars over to foodstamps. Just look at what democrats have done to inner-city blacks... They don't care as long as they have a voting bloc. The Unions destroyed the auto-industry just like they are trying to destroy school choice especially in D.C. It wasn't as if Bush was a difference maker he was a statist too more so a fascist. Obama is only Bush II I guess now all of you who hated Ronald Reagan or underappreciated him can now see why he has the aura he does. I bet some of you wish he was back, well... I can only say this country has entered a new era of "change" and I hope you all will enjoy what you put in office "McCain wasn't a choice either". P.S. don't try to say I am some racist or bigot... I am black

Thank You for Being a Friend

Since Minnesota cannot seem to figure out who won, I suggest appointing Rose Nylund. It is my understanding that St. Olaf residents are in need of fuel subsidies for their gasoline-powered televisions.

Is Georgia in America?

Troy Davis is in the justice system in Georgia.

He is not being given a chance to be heard like most of us in America.

In this extraordinary case, where a man with a strong claim to innocence may well be executed without a court ever holding a hearing on his claims, I urge you to act in the interests of justice and support clemency for Troy Davis. An execution in this case, without a proper hearing on significant evidence of innocence, would severely compromise the integrity of Georgia’s justice system.

A conviction based solely on witness testimony in Georgia?

Seven of the nine non-police witnesses have recanted or contradicted their trial testimony.

Georgia has refused to hold an evidentiary hearing to examine these witnesses. Executive clemency exists, and executive action is required, to preserve justice when the protections afforded by our appeals process fail to do so.

I have always thought Georgia was a pro life state, but have never been able to wrap my mind around the direct relationship between the “rights to lifer obsession” with forcing the death penalty as a deterrent as if this ridiculous notion that you can change behavior by killing someone at a public hanging so others can do good? Like SUV’er hokey moms and the gasoline prices there is no change by offering alternatives to the people who think the rules do not apply when the the hangman is the SUV driver.

I strongly urge you to take such action now and ensure that the death sentence of Troy Davis is commuted. Thank you for your attention to this extremely serious matter.

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Michael Barone is a senior writer for U.S.News & World Report and principal coauthor of The Almanac of American Politics. He has written for many publications—including the Economist and the New York Times.

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