Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Opinion

Michael Barone

Republicans Trail Obama Dems By One Point in Poll--Anti-Stimulus Push Is Working

February 11, 2009 12:10 PM ET | Michael Barone | Permanent Link | Print

By Michael Barone, Thomas Jefferson Street blog

Astonishing news on the generic ballot question. Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that Democrats are currently ahead of Republicans by only 40 percent to 39 percent. Given that this generic ballot question over the years has tended to understate Republicans' performances in actual elections, one gathers that if the 2010 election for House seats were held today, Republicans would win or come close to winning a majority of seats—which is to say, they would gain about 40 seats. By way of comparison, they gained 52 seats when they won their majority in 1994. This result may just be a momentary blip, which will pass away as quickly as it appeared, and we are a long, long, long way from the November 2010 elections. But if I were a Democratic member of Congress in even a marginally marginal district, I would be just a little bit worried. And if I were a conservative cheerleader against the Obama/Pelosi stimulus package, I would be concentrating less of my fire against the three Republicans who supported the Senate version and more on Democratic members of the House and (at least those who are up for reelection in 2010) the Senate.

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Tags: Republicans

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Reader Comments

stimulus package and cenus

I am trying to get a copy of the stimulus package, I want to see what the pork is in it which doesn't seem to be available anywhere.God help us if Obama gets ahold of the cenus,I hoped he can be stopped.He is really going full steam ahead.and wants to take over everything.

This is a push poll

and Barone knows it. Rasmussen has been doing these push polls for the generic ballot for years. What he will do is ask a question that has a noticeable bias against Democrats and then ask the generic ballot question. The reason this is even more questionable is the fact that Republicans are only at 39% here. There are tons of undecided voters here that likely lean Democratic.

You failed to mention the polls that show

Americans are widely in favor of the stimulus package. Fox noise and talking heads can keep talking about "spending" rather than economic recovery while conveniently ignoring the fact that these Republicans spent us into this huge hole to begin with....and nothing to show for it in the lives of everyday Americans. They picked our pockets for the military industrial complex, and the Wall Street vampires, and any number of corporate behemoths. Now they are whining about infrastructure and job creation. Something that would actually give us little folks a return on our tax dollars.

That dog won't hunt in 2010. Americans have had sense beaten into them with a baseball bat for 8 years. I think they've had enough.

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Michael Barone is a senior writer for U.S.News & World Report and principal coauthor of The Almanac of American Politics. He has written for many publications—including the Economist and the New York Times.

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