Clinton and Obama's Super Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina
Corrected on 5/9/08: Due to a posting error, the column titles on the chart were reversed.
The original Super Tuesday, in the 1988 cycle, was engineered by southern and moderate Democrats with the intention of securing the nomination for a moderate southern candidate in a flurry of southern primaries. It worked that year, but for the other party: George H. W. Bush, after his defining victory in South Carolina (scheduled for the Saturday before Super Tuesday by Lee Atwater), swept the South and won the Republican nomination, while on the Democratic side, Al Gore's five primary wins in the South were matched by Jesse Jackson's five, and Michael Dukakis, winning Florida and Texas, went on to win the party's nomination.
This year, the Republican nomination was effectively settled on Super Tuesday, when John McCain's narrow but decisive wins in several states, together with the party's winner-take-all delegate allocation rules, enabled him to build up an insurmountably big delegate lead over Mitt Romney. Mike Huckabee stayed in the race, but obviously had no chance to win; he and McCain traded compliments, and on subsequent election nights Huckabee delivered gracious concession speeches and McCain delivered victory statements aimed at the general electorate. It served both candidates' interests to pretend that there was still a real contest, and Huckabee actually won the Kansas caucus and was competitive in the Virginia primary during this period. But everyone knew McCain was going to be the party's nominee, and treated him accordingly.
So it is, I think, on the Democratic side after Tuesday's thumpingly wide 56 percent to 42 percent victory for Barack Obama in the North Carolina primary and thuddingly narrow 51 percent to 49 percent victory for Hillary Clinton in the Indiana primary. In Raleigh, N.C., Obama delivered a victory speech that was clearly aimed at a general election audience. He was carefully respectful of Clinton and congratulated her on what he said appeared to be her victory in Indiana (although at that point only CBS had called the state for her and on the data available was in my opinion clearly wrong to do so). He told us repeatedly that he loved America—something he needs to do, given his 20-year pastor's denunciations of his country and his wife's statement that she was only "really proud" of her country when her husband started winning presidential caucuses and primaries. I think John Hood is right to say it was a decisive night for Obama and "Richelieu" (we all assume it's Mike Murphy) is right to say that Hillary Clinton is toast. An over familiar metaphor, I'm afraid; I attempted a variation of it on Fox News last night when I said, thinking of the time Obama ducked a reporter's question by saying that he wanted to eat his waffle, that Obama was like a warm, steaming waffle, while Clinton was like cold toast.
Which isn't to say that Hillary Clinton is going to quit running now, any more than her erstwhile fellow Arkansan Mike Huckabee quit running immediately after February 5. She can clearly win West Virginia on May 13; look at how she's done in adjacent counties in Dave Leip's Election Atlas and you'll see why. On May 20, she can clearly win in Kentucky, through probably not in Oregon on the same day. She can probably win in Puerto Rico on June 1, and perhaps by a substantial popular vote margin, one large enough to swamp possible losses in lightly populated South Dakota and Montana June 3. She no longer leads in popular vote (counting Florida and Michigan) as she did after the Pennsylvania primary April 22, but she could conceivably regain that (qualified) popular vote lead. But I think none of this will matter. Superdelegates are going to continue to go toward Obama, and Clinton may soon have fewer superdelegates, as well as fewer primary-selected delegates and many fewer caucus-selected delegates, than Obama. Democrats are going to assume that Obama's problems with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and with his own remarks about "bitter" small towners have not produced decisive damage, although there's some basis in the May 6 results to argue otherwise.
So I expect Clinton and Obama to continue to campaign along the lines of the nonaggression pact their election night remarks suggest. They'll say little or nothing negative about each other and approach the results in ways that will be consistent with the responses they'll have to make when Obama clinches the nomination. One possible endpoint: Obama may claim after May 20 that he has a majority of committed delegates (not including Florida and Michigan). Another possible endpoint: The Democratic National Committee's rules committee meeting May 31 may produce a compromise that gives Florida and Michigan some representation but leaves Obama well positioned to claim a majority of delegates. Another possible endpoint: After the June 3 primary, Obama announces a cascade of 20 to 40 superdelegates, which put him over the top without identifying any single superdelegate as having made the decision.
Obama's relative success in the May 6 primaries can, I think, be chalked up to his performance in three metropolitan areas which have had robust or relatively robust economic and demographic growth and where urban politics has not been focused on racially polarized city elections—Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham, N.C., and Indianapolis. I haven't calculated the metro area totals yet, but it's apparent from these data that Obama ran very well among whites in their largest counties:
| Black % | Obama % | |
| Wake County, N.C. (Raleigh) | 20 | 65 |
| Mecklenburg County, N.C. (Charlotte) | 28 | 70 |
| Marion County, Ind. (Indianapolis) | 25 | 67 |
Obviously the black percentage of voters was higher than the black percentage of population, but probably not too much higher, given the robust overall turnout. So this suggests that most whites in these counties voted for Obama.
In contrast, look at the county we were concentrating on till the wee hours at Fox News—Lake County, Ind. This includes black-majority Gary and, being literally next-door to the city of Chicago, was considered an Obama stronghold. The numbers:
| Lake County, Ind. (Gary) | 26 | 55 |
There seems to have been some manipulation of the announcement of the returns from Lake County, presumably orchestrated by Obama supporter Rudy Clay, who is both mayor of Gary and Lake County Democratic chairman. For most of the evening, Lake County reported no results at all, even though the mayor of Hammond (a Clay rival) said his results were ready to be reported early in the evening. Then, around midnight—I didn't look at my watch as the numbers suddenly flashed on my screen at Fox News headquarters—we saw some 38,000 votes posted, "half of the city of Gary," we were told, that were 75 percent for Obama; they reduced Hillary Clinton's running margin from about 40,000 to about 20,000. A straight-line extrapolation from these results, assuming that Obama would win that percentage from the rest of the county that was expected to cast another 94,000 votes, would indicate Obama would overtake Clinton and carry Indiana.
As I pointed out on Fox, a straight-line extrapolation wasn't justified. For one thing, it was unlikely that those 38,000 votes represented only a part of Gary. Gary's 2007 population was 97,000, and a turnout of 38,000 would be 40 percent of the total population—a huge contrast from the 20 percent of total population turnout in Marion County. Moreover, while Gary has a large black majority; the rest of the county, some 395,000 people, is only about 12 percent black—the same percentage as in two other industrial northern Indiana counties, St. Joseph (South Bend) and Allen (Fort Wayne), which Obama carried with 53 percent and 56 percent of the vote. Later tranches of the Lake County vote justified my analysis: Obama won it with 55 percent of the vote.
One other interesting thing: The exit polls were pretty much on target here, as opposed to earlier contests this year in which they have tended to show Obama winning a higher percentage—sometimes a considerably higher percentage—than he has won in the tabulated vote. One possible explanation: Obama voters tended to be more enthusiastic and more willing to take the exit poll, which half of those approached decline to do. But that was not true this time. Has the Reverend Wright reduced the enthusiasm for Obama? Maybe. But it hasn't reduced his support in Democratic primaries enough to give Hillary Clinton the opening she was hoping for until the May 6 returns started coming in. Clinton's 51 percent in Indiana is not so far from her 55 percent in Ohio and Pennsylvania which, as I have pointed out, has an older demographic profile than Indiana.
Tags: Indiana | North Carolina | Democrats | presidential election 2008 | primaries | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton
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The tables
I'm confused by what the tables showing Obama's percentages in the largest counties in Indiana and North Carolina say. It looks as if, for instance, Obama won only 20% in Wake County, NC, and that the population is 65% black. Were the numbers reversed by mistake?
Indiana
If you look at the actual voting tallies, you will see that only 1.1 percent separated Clinton and Obama, not the 2 percent you indicate (51 vs 49). The erroneous figure of two percent results from a statistical mistake: rounding before calculating the difference between the two percentages rather than, as is the appropriate process, after calculating the difference.
MIchelle
Come on already....she was "really proud" because of the involvement....people finally taking an interest and all the new people registering to vote. Not because her husband won a couple of states. I would expect better from you...that was tasteless.
OBAMA is unelectable:
Obama's State Senate Record Will Hurt Him Badly
A review of Barack Obama's State Senate record reveals some "hot button" issues that will cause him grief in a race against John McCain. These issues will hurt Obama against John McCain and strengthen Hillary Clinton's arguments that he is unelectable:
- Voted against making permanent the repeal of the state's 5 percent sales tax on gasoline. (2000)
- Supported higher taxes, raising more than 300 taxes and fees on businesses in 2004 to help solve a budget deficit.
- He is opposed letting people use a self-defense argument if charged with violating local handgun bans by using weapons in their homes. The bill was a reaction to a Chicago-area man who, after shooting an intruder, was charged with a handgun violation.
- He voted against requiring medical care for aborted fetuses who survive, the fetuses would sometime survive for hours. Abortion opponents see Obama's vote on medical care for aborted fetuses as a refusal to protect the helpless and accuse him of supporting infanticide.
- He sponsored a measure to expunge criminal records and create an employment grant program for ex-criminals. (2002)
- He voted to limit the purchase of handguns to one a month.
- Voted against making gang members eligible for the death penalty if they kill someone to help their gang. (2001)
* THE CHANGE AGENT*
Obama said he goofed on votes angered fellow Democrats in the Senate when he voted to strip millions of dollars from a child welfare office on Chicago's West Side. But Obama had a ready explanation: He goofed!
Also announced he had fumbled an election-reform vote the day before, on a measure that passed 51 to 6. The next day, he acknowledged voting "present" on a key telecommunications vote. He stood on March 11, 1999, to take back his vote against legislation to end good-behavior credits for certain felons in county jails. "I pressed the wrong button on that," he said. Obama was the lone dissenter on Feb. 24, 2000, against 57 yeas for a ban on human cloning. "I pressed the wrong button by accident," he said.
But two of Obama's bumbles came on more-sensitive topics, he backed legislation to permit riverboat casinos to operate even when the boats were dockside.
The measure, pushed by the gambling industry and fought by church groups whose support Obama was seeking, passed with two "yeas" to spare -- including Obama's. Moments after its passage he rose to say, explaining that he had mistakenly voted for it.
Obama would later develop a reputation as a critic of the gambling industry, and he voted against a similar measure two years later. But he was clearly confused about how to handle the issue at the time of his first vote, telling a church group that he was "undecided" about whether he backed an expansion of riverboat gambling. And, months earlier, he had voted in favor of a version of the bill.
Obama's vote sparked a confrontation after he joined Republicans to block Democrats trying to override a veto by GOP Gov. George Ryan of a $2-million allotment for the west Chicago child welfare office. being responsible," said Sen. Rickey Hendon, accusing Obama of voting to close the child welfare office.Obama replied "I understand Sen. Hendon's anger, I was not aware that I had voted no on that piece of legislation.
Striking similarities between Barack Obama's words and those of Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick during his 2006 election campaign have raised eyebrows and attracted traffic on YouTube. The stump speech Barack Obama has been giving aimed at convincing voters that his campaign is not just about lofty rhetoric — is from Patrick.
hi, oris from ghana
Obama will win this election.
BHO nomination
BHO has promised to change things in DC. Has he ever said how he will change things when he has not history with the powers in DC? He has no backing from large corporations...if he gets the Dem nod, I will immediately change my voting preference. He's just not right for the Oval Office.
Turn out the lights...
The parties over.......
He is completely unelectable. Rezko, Wright, Michelle, infanticide, present, Ayers, BLT, dah, um, ah, um........and more to come.
Far left socialist that believes in, and encourages, Black Liberation Theology and a bitter "victim" wife....NO THANK YOU.
Obama
Dems will unite. Two words will strike fear into every heart. A McCain picked right wing supreme court for the next 40 years. Wise up. Unite.
Really?
So let's see what Clinton is claiming again -- that "Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."
Obama's support among whites is actually increasing compared to Ohio, Mississippi and Pennsylvania. She lied about that.
Obama's support among "hard working Americans", which is code for poorer Americans, has also increased over those in previous contests, save for Mississippi, where the under-$50K vote was overwhelmingly black.
Obama's numbers among college grads is static to increasing. We don't have exit poll breakdowns for education by race, and we can assume North Carolina's huge numbers with "no college" are due to the large African American percentages in the state. But what about Indiana, a state that is whiter (83.9%) than Pennsylvania (82.1%), Ohio (82.9%) and Texas (48.3%)? Despite the demographic disadvantage, Obama actually increased his support among voters with no college degrees.
So how can Clinton be so wrong? Because she's citing an AP-Yahoo News poll from back on May 3rd. Rather than cite actual voter data, she is basing her claims on an old poll taken before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
Yup. That's what Hillary Clinton has been reduced to. Ignoring actual votes and cherry picking polls.
Which really, shouldn't surprise anyone. She's already ignored and belittled every state and voter demographic that doesn't support her. So it only follows that since in her world, the only things that are important are things that support her, she'd ignore election results in favor of the one (outdated) poll that confirms her manufactured reality.
A tax on windfall profits will be passed onto you and me.
Barack Obama
e v
n e
d r
America, becasue if he wins he is going to stick it to you.
Be ready for $10/gal gas if a windfall profits tax is enacted.
Hillary
The Democratic (ha) party is not offering democracy with its use of Super delegates etc.
v p for obama
here's to name that michelle obama think is great VPs
obama/ flaver flav
obama/don king
to all obama's supporters please let michelle know who is your pick.
Presidential Nominee
The comments in this article just proves that Obama will not be elected for President if the gets the nomination. Just look at the way he votes. It shows that he doesn't have a clue what he's doing. Hillary seems to be the only choice. Please super delegates if you want to get control of the white house elect Hillary as the democratic nominee. There's too much at stake to let Obama get the nomination.
McCain will be president of usa
HILLARY OR McCain WILL BE PRESIDENT HE WILL WIN AT LEAST 40 STATES
Presidential Nominee
The comments in this article just proves that Obama will not be elected for President if the gets the nomination. Just look at the way he votes. It shows that he doesn't have a clue what he's doing. Hillary seems to be the only choice. Please super delegates if you want to get control of the white house elect Hillary as the democratic nominee. There's too much at stake to let Obama get the nomination.
DrRay from Ohio
Michael, as someone who is trained in the use of statistics, I can see through your specious interpretation of stats to support your position. As someone else here pointed out, rounding out the 1.1% win for Hillary as 2% shows how biased your analysis is.
You also said, "So I expect Clinton and Obama to continue to campaign along the lines of the nonaggression pact their election night remarks suggest." Guess again! Hillary just said that Obama is losing White support. Talk about the petty politics.
I don't know if HIllary is racist but some of her supporters seem to be. They should be honest enough to join the Republican party or the Klan. I'm not sure if you are one of them either.
90%
HOW COME NOBODY IN MEDIA HAS THE BALL TO ASK IF 90% OF PEOPLE VOTE JUST BY RACE, WHAT YOU CALL THAT.
AND IN GE THATS HOW YOU LOSE AN ELECTION BECAUSE YOU NEED MORE
THEN 90% OF YOUR RACE.
A Golden Opportunity-Let's Not Blow It
Let's see...Five years and counting in a war embarked upon on false pretences (that means "lies" for those hard working Americans who haven't had the luxury of getting through grade school like us "elitists"). $300 Million a day drained from the U.S. economy to support that war and "rebuild" that oil rich nation while multi-national corporations get tax preferences to ship American jobs oversees, American homeowners face record foreclosure rates, and American consumers face rising prices for luxury items (like food) because American truck operators have to pay almost $5.00 a gallon for diesel fuel. And here we are making the decision about who should lead this nation based on wedge issues like which candidate wears an American flag lapel pin and which candidate used to worship in the church with the angriest pastor. WAKE UP PEOPLE! Barack Obama is the only viable candidate who offers a clear break from the divisive and counterproductive policies of the past 8 (dare I say 28) years. If we blow this golden opportunity to elect a true visionary and a patriot (in the true, not the sound bite sense of the word), we deserve what we get. God bless America...with a dose of common sense!
$10 a gallon gas
I am in the UK. We have had $10 a gallon gas for some time.
Strange as it might seem we have more or less accepted it. Gas is heavily taxed here. The goverment needs money. It HAS to collect tax so it taxes anything it wants to discorage. The result is that we use more economical cars, and more public transport. When the cost of gas doubles on the international market we will be ready. Will you?
Sick stomach
Obysmal vs. McShamnesty -
Never have the American sheeple had a worse pair of candidates. It certainly proves that we are not fit for self-government.
Here's to oblivion. Onward, thru the fog. Whoever is left at the end, will you please turn out the lights.
VP FOR OBAMA
THANK YOU SO MUCH I THINK I LIKE
OBAMA AND FLAVER FLAV THEY BE SO COOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
THEY LOOK A LIKE,
Obama for President
There's a lot of bitterness out there, almost as if Obama started the war that drove up fuel prices, or accepted the lobbyist's money that resulted in loansharking grandmothers out of their homes.
It's almost as if Obama was the one celebrating his birthday with George Bush in Arizona, while nurses and doctors worked twenty four shifts without water or power, trying to save the dying in New Orleans.
These remarks are always interesting. The commentator is never racist, but they always just know others won't vote for Obama, never mind the number of states where he got more votes than Clinton and McCain combined (Iowa, South Carolina, etc.)
If you're trying to peddle the story of Obama's defeat, you'd better start explaining how four more years of this leaves us any better off than the last eight.
A Golden Opportunity-Let's Not Blow It
you must work in CNN or you are one of 90% who vote by race.
if its not CLINTON McCain will be our president.
Obama The Great Leader
hahhahahhahhahhahhahahahhahha
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooohahahahhhahhhaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooohhahhhhhhhhhhhoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo he is a jock only fools follow him
AS DON KING SAYS ONLY IN AMERICA.
PA Said No To Obama With Good Reason
My open letter to the DNC and Chairman Howard Dean --
Chairman Dean. I respectfully submit to you that the Democratic Party needs to take a long hard look at the way their candidates for President are chosen. Right now, there is a very great chance that the Party is going to put a candidate forward who cannot win the November election against the moderate Republican candidate, Senator John McCain. The biggest reason is that the moderate democrats of this country have very, very real and serious concerns that Senator Obama has had one too many anti-American philosophers and even domestic terrorist associates and friends over the past 20 years. This issue raises every real doubt in the voters’ minds about what exactly Senator Obama does feel or believe about this great nation of ours. It’s a question of judgment on his part. And those types of questions should not be in the minds of Democratic voters when they are choosing our next President.
Furthermore, exit poll after exit poll has shown that Senator Obama just is not connecting with the white, middle class, blue collar, Asian, Jewish, Catholic, Hispanic, and white women voters who've consistently been the base and support of the Democratic Party over the years. Many of these voters are now feeling like the DNC and the Party as a whole is abandoning them for the minority constituencies of black, upper income, and the youth. They are asking the very real question - where is the Party's loyalty to the real base of the Party? This is a very real problem for the DNC and the Party as a whole if Senator Obama actually wins this nomination. But then I'm sure I do not have to remind you of that fact.
To save this Party and to actually unite this Party and this great nation, Chairman Dean, the Party needs to take a stand now and make the votes of both FL and MI count for something. And Senator Obama should not be allowed to block those efforts to just continue to run out the clock on this election. The millions of voters in these two states want and need to have their votes counted. They are intelligent and insightful voters who refuse to be told how and when they should vote. Their states held an election and these voters came out to do their civic duty and cast their ballots in the millions. There is no true justification for the DNC and the Party to totally ignore these voters that came out in record numbers to vote for both Obama and Clinton. To not count them is plain and simple another reason why the Democratic Party is heading for disaster come November.
And finally, I am writing to let you know that Senator Hillary Clinton’s support among the middle class, hard-working, blue collar people who are and always have been the back bone of this great nation is strong! We will not back down, and we will be heard loud and clear. If not now, we will be heard in November in record numbers. This is not a threat Chairman Dean; this is likely to be the reality. We believe very strongly that a vote for Senator Obama is a bad vote for America. We also believe very strongly that a vote for Senator Clinton is the right vote for America and without a doubt the only hope for a Democratic Party victory in November!
Obama simply not qualified
~
Clinton is the only one in the race who's qualified to be the predent.
The other two are simply not up to the task.
How come Obama has never done any of the things in the Senate that he claims he's going to do as President?
Where's the courage?
He's been keeping his powder dry.
~
Obama simply not qualified, pt. 2
~
supposed to be:
Clinton is the only one in the race who's qualified to be the president.
~
General election
Think positively, folks, think First Lady Michelle Obama.
Hillary 4ever!
I just hope and pray to Jesus, that Hillary will end her campaign, leave with her dignity intact, and support Obama.
This way, after we (Republicans) have slaughtered Obama (We will win >40 states against that elitist, unpatriotic fool), she will be perfectly positioned to sabotage yet another election for the Democrats in 2012.
She has become the greatest asset to the Republican Party since Osama’s ugly face.
Thank God the Bosnian snipers were off executing heathen Muslims, rather than shooting at Hillary
Obama
Obama will be a great president because he understands America's role in the world and how to fix our economy...
The plan is quite elegant...
-Raise taxes to create prosperity
-Leave Iraq so the terrorists will leave too
-Enact protectionist policies, because Americans cannot compete with peasant Chinese workers
-Raise the minimum wage, because teenager workers are rationing cocaine (unlike during his youth)
-Replicate Europe's socialized medicine, because Americans look with envy to Albanian Healthcare
-Help us stop clinging to our guns and churches (both the mark of barbarism)
-Fully fund public education so the young people of America can understand the wisdom of Reverend Wright
Could anyone without the aid of multiple strokes elect such a backward thinking man to office?
Yes we can…
Obama
Obama will be a great president because he understands America's role in the world and how to fix our economy...
The plan is quite elegant...
-Raise taxes to create prosperity
-Leave Iraq so the terrorists will leave too
-Enact protectionist policies, because Americans cannot compete with peasant Chinese workers
-Raise the minimum wage, because teenager workers are rationing cocaine (unlike during his youth)
-Replicate Europe's socialized medicine, because Americans look with envy to Albanian Healthcare
-Help us stop clinging to our guns and churches (both the mark of barbarism)
-Fully fund public education so the young people of America can understand the wisdom of Reverend Wright
Could anyone without the aid of multiple strokes elect such a backward thinking man to office?
Yes we can…
Obama is not enough
Dear Col. Khajawall, for Obama to do anything, he must have a sympathetic House and Senate. So we have to elect Obama AND we have to elect Democrats to the House and Senate if we really want a change in direction.
clinton out!
Like it or not, Mrs Clinton knew and accepted the rules when she began her campaign. To move the goal-posts at evey point and now to demand and sue to change these rules after she's lost is tantamount not only to being a sore loser or a spoiler but to being deranged. Frankly, Mrs Clinton's behavior is not only of denial but of non-contact with reality--i.e. insanity. Mrs Clinton is very wrong to continue her campaign and in the way that she has, trying to knee-cap Obama, smearing his credetials, teaming up with McCain against Obama, etc. She has done great wrong to the party and the nation. HER rights are not in question. She has the right to try to buy the presidency. She has the right to lie about coming under sniper fire. She has the right to fear-monger and pander and play-act working class, gun-crazy, alcohol-guzzling, militaristic postures. But she has no right to the office to the president simply because she happens to have married a man who became president and who wants to return to the WH for another unconstitutional8 years. Dynastic rule is NOT a right in our republic. It is time for the super-delegates to show some courage to save the party and our republic. END THE MADNESS AND TURN THE PAGE.
PA said No, you're wrong
To "PA said NO to Obama" - I am sorry but you don't make much sense. The Democrats award delegates in proportion to the percentage of votes a candidate obtains. So if Obama has the lead in delegates, it must mean that more people voted for him than for Ms. Clinton. That's what the math says, and math doesn't play favorites. You insinuate that Obama is suspect just because of his pastor, with no proof that Obama himself agrees with the pastor. I think your racist subconscious is making you see imaginary defects in Obama. For every Democrat like you, there are two who have given money to Obama and will vote for him.
Why Clinton Keeps Running
I have wondered about that for 3 months. It must be that she and her husband are convinced that a black man cannot win the Presidency, and that they must save Democrats from themselves. Whether that's patronizing Southern racism or astute political calculation, I do not know. But I do know that they are wrong.
McCain only looks good because Obama hasn't turned his attention to him yet. Just look at the issues Obama has risen above during the campaign.He will no problem putting away the inconsistent septagenarian with the pretty blonde.
Does nobody bother to look at fact anymore?
I usually just read the comments after the article and move on, but the numerous ignorant postings I have seen here has made me do otherwise. What's with all of this "McCain will win >40 states"? Has nobody here even bothered to look at some of the polls? EVERY credible nationwide poll shows Obama beating McCain. Don't like the nationwide polls? Fine, then look at the state by state polls. What's that you see? Even Rasmussen (conservative leaning) shows Obama bringing in 200 electoral college votes vs. McCain's 189 with 111 votes still undecided. So he's leading now with votes but yet you STILL claim that 40+ states will easily go for McCain.
Dig a hole and stick your head in the sand if you want, but please stop with the ignorant posts already.
Lake County Demographics Similar to Pittsburgh
I totally agree with your analysis. Growing up a Hoosier in Southern IN, and then living in Chicago for ten years, I went with my gut expecting a long night. I accepted a dinner invitation from a friend, returned home around 11:30, and turned on the TV to get relevant data. When I heard that Lake County had not reported, I knew Clinton won. Gary is, yes indeed, very heavily black. However, the remainder of the county is very blue-collar, working class white... similar to a Pittsburgh. When CNN would refer to it as "Chicago suburbs," I chuckled since few people in the Chicago area desire to live in Lake County with relatively few "young professional class" white neighborhoods that would embrace Obama. In doubt? Take a drive on the Skyway, an elevated interstate that traverses over Lake County, and you'll see. Abandoned steel mills, environmental eye-sores, tiny bungalow homes looking into polluted lakeshore and rail-lines.
Transcript 506.23
*** BREAKING NEWS ***
Transcript 506.23
In a recent national poll, 77.23% of democrats are outraged with the bellicose attitude that Obama and Hillary are displaying in the presidential contest.
"The poll was conducted with a statistical error of +/- 3%. I was rather shocked to see how many democrats noted on the questionaire their desire to change to the Republican party this fall."
Do you really believe that many will switch, 77%?
"Well, not that many of course not, but based on 30 years of historical results you can count on 50% of them converting or say 35% or so to the Republican party."
That is an incrediably large number to switch over to the Republican party. Sounds like good news for the Republicans. Is there any way they could lose this cross over?
"Not really... the discord that Obama and Hillary have made has formed a based taste in viewers mind. The only thing I think that could change them back is if McCain doesnt tap Huckabee as his VP."
Why, I don't understand?
"Based on our polling, American's are overwhelming confident with McCain and Huckabee on the ticket. Their maturity in the presidential race running against each other showed the public, they got the superior skills to lead this nation."
End Transcript 506.23
ASTOUNDING FEAR AND IGNORANCE
As a psychotherapist, I am reading these comments confirming what I see every day in ordinary people--change and the unknown are necessary to growth. As a society we most grow--or die. We fear what we don't know and based on how much trust we have as individuals we anticipate the future with either terror and resort to panicky justifications or rationalizations to keep us in in a comfort zone--even if it is negative it is still known and therefore preferred.
We are a collective society that has endured the decay of an ignorant , frightened man afraid to trust (Bush) because he never had to deal with these issues. He was given everything and forced us all into subordinating to his peculiar justifications and rationalizations. We've paid a price and suffered. Barack Obama didn't just happen--if you have any faith at all in something bigger than all of us, you will realize that we created him and his message --'change'.
Those most frightened of change, future, unknown etc. are passionatley holding on to their myths , belief systems to keep the future from happening.All the justifications and rationalizations are amplified in many of the comments on here.They are nothing more than great resistance . The greater the resistance, the greater the change. The most anti Obama are the most fearful. Look within, if you dare. You may realize that it is not Obama you fear, but the fears you have in your life from moment to moment. Try, if you dare, to stop the desperate rejecting and myth building and let yourself move into the future. Wheter you like it or not--Barack Obama is in your future. Where do you want to put your energies--into hating, demeaing him or revering a woman like HRC who is brilliant, very capable but in the end hopelessly narcissistic, vain, manipulative and not truly the empathic soul needed to mend our country in this time
Gee, Mr. Barone
What happened to Hillary's "Jacksonians" and all that other nonsense you spouted the past few weeks on how Hillary was going to come from behind and shock everyone with her popular vote victory?
Sorry, you didn't get Hillary to run against, which is what you and the rest of the Right clearly wanted. Instead, you get the charismatic 40 year old who is going to make McCain look awfully old.
Game not Over 'Till It's OVER...
I'm not an expert on this but from a layman's point of view, the Barack team and the Media are probably declaring this race over prematurely.
The last time I checked the formula goes like this:
Pledged Delegates + Superdelegates = Winner Nominee (2025 Total Delegates or 2209 Delegates if Florida and Michagan are included)
Barack Omaha hasn't reach that number yet. Also under the rules, these pledged delegates and Super Delegates are free to change their minds and switch around from one person to another at least until they formally make a final vote at the convention.
To prove a point and if we learned anything during the last few months, some Hillary's Super Delegates have already switched to Obama. And this is fine but what's preventing others from doing the same thing at a later time.
However, from now until the convention is held who are we to say that Hillary doesn't have a chance to the nomination.
Bottom line, until these delegates have casted their votes at the convention there's no telling how this race using a STUPID SYSTEM will play out.
Gee, Mr. Barone
What happened to Hillary's "Jacksonians" and all that other nonsense you spouted the past few weeks on how Hillary was going to come from behind and shock everyone with her popular vote victory?
Sorry, you didn't get Hillary to run against, which is what you and the rest of the Right clearly wanted. Instead, you get the charismatic 40 year old who is going to make McCain look awfully old.
The tables are incorrect
In the first comment, Michael Karns noted that the data was confusing. It was confusing to me also.
That is because the data underneath the labels are revered.
The numbers for Wake County, for example, should be:
Obama %: 65
Black %: 20
Perhaps an editor will see this and make the correction.
More whites Voted for Obama...
Obama will need to wait for at least another 8 years before his time of becoming President of the USA arrives. The American people are SMART and will require that he be seasoned first before giving him the crown.
GO OBAMA!!!
goodbye Dems, hello McCain
If you think that most of Clinton supporters won't go for McCain your sadly mistaken.
Oklahoma is a red state and it is already geting redder, Almost 75% have already changed over to either IND. or REP. and i'm one of them. the Democrat party is split in half and Obama can not unite it.
I would rather have ROE V WADE overturned than have Babies born alive and then let them lay there and die.
I don't like Obama's buddies, Wright, Ayers, Meeks, Rashid Khalidi, Penny Prizker and President Ahmedinejad. AND the money that Obama has taken from the issuers of Subprime loans.
Obama = McCAIN
I will vote for McCain
I am an independent voter , centrist -left, who usually votes for democrats both in state and national elections. That is, I voted for McGovern, Carter, Mondale, Clinton, Gore, and Kerry (Kerry holding my nose). The exception was a vote for Bush #1 against Dukakis.
This year, if it is McCain versus Obama, I am voting McCain.
Why.
Obama is a phony. 1. He claims the ability to be non-partisant, but has never done anything to reach across party lines. 2. He claims to be a candiate who transcends race, but he sat there for 20 years and listened to the good Reverend Wright spew his hatred. 3. He is the most liberal senator in Washington.
There is nothing Obama can do to get my vote. McCain/Clinton would be a toss-up for me. McCain/Obama is a no-brainer.
McCain/Obama will be a repeat of Bush/Dukakis. The democratic establisment is too stupid to understand what they are getting with Obama, but smart politics is not something democrats so well.
Obama v Clinton v McCain v MSM
Why would I choose a candidate that wins on Slander and Pander and flip. What kind of presidential quality is that? Obama's won states where over 90% of the voters were white.
Sen. Obama's political record, associations hold high compared to McCain & Clinton. The vast majority of his fundraising is from grass-roots, not big corporations or lobby firms. His campaign will spend more because that's the mandate from his supporters.
Cudos to McCain and Clinton's experience in old-school politics and using Republican's playbook to compete.
Look at why Barack is ahead by all established accounts - he's made a winner of him, his campaign, the party, and next, the country.
Confused
Your chart is wrong. The labels are switched.
It should have Black % first and Obama% second.
I love Obama!
He is a gift to our country and our world. I am an over fifty white woman. I think a great VP for Obama is Kathleen Sibelius, governor of Kansas.
Lets all unite together and solve our problems. We can do it!
A Golden Opportunity-Let's Not Blow It
JoJo, I would challenge you to debate the facts of Senator Obama's suitability for the Presidency and why I believe he's not only going to win, but will go down in history as one of our most effective president's ever, but I make it a policy never to get involved in a battle of wits with an unarmed man.
obama....wow!
I want Obama to win....he's our hero....just joking.
The guy is so incompetent. Hey, he is backed by Ted Kennedy, Oprah, Rev Sharpton, Rev. Wright just to name a few.
Can you imagine.....what he will bring to DC....Hope, Change... da Future. The ignorance keeps coming. The IQ level here is 10 points above a retard and I am including his smug faced wife and theres a winner.
The choices for President are appaling.
The McCain needs to focus on the split in the Democratic Party, capitalizing on states such as PA, OH, MI, and even California where huge numbers of Clinton supporters have been disenfranchised.
Clinton won the popular vote in more congressional districts than Obama. Leaving dozens of DNC Superdelegates who are now supporting Obama although their own constituents voted for Clinton.
This is the ideal election not only to stand up to and end the far-left hijacking of the executive branch, but also an unrealized opportunity to regain seats in the house.
All McCain supporters need to visit the site below and get the info into the hands of their Dem. friends.
Why hasn't the media mentioned that Hillary has won the pop. vot in more congression districts that Obama.
Read these articles The Obama Strikes Back and The New American Disnfranchisement at
www.politicallydrunk.blogspot.com
Which Candidate Has the Best Chance to Win in November
I am not going to address the questions that will haunt Obama in November (should he be the Democratic nominee) about his church, his pastor, or his friends. All I will say is that, had the negative publicity which proved harmful to him when it surfaced occurred before the early primaries, a good share of the delegates he won would not be his. The more serious concern is whether he can win the White House for the Democrats.
Obama may have gotten more delegates because of shrewd strategic moves. Whatever, the strategic mistakes by the Clinton campaign, which permitted Obama to accumulate delegates, the fact still remains that there is a general election to be won, and Clinton is the candidate best able to achieve this. The superdelegates must see to it that the right choice is made in the convention.
Anti-Bush sentiment will not be enough to give the Democrats the White House if Obama is the Party's nominee. When polls show that many of Clinton's supporters will not vote for Obama, it should be taken very seriously. She has the support of the majority of the Democrats in all the states that matter for the Democrats in winning the general election. She won the Blue and the Swing States -- with the exception of Obama's home state of Illinois. To nominate Obama would be a grave mistake. More Clinton's supporters than indicated in the polls will not vote for Obama. They will vote for McCain (especially if he has an attractive VP), or stay home.
One might argue that there would also be a negative reaction to withholding the nomination from Obama. That is correct. I believe that some of his supporters will stay home. However, Obama's support is strong in the Red states, which will go for McCain anyway. In addition, one must remember that a lot of the support for Obama came from Republicans who voted for him in the Democratic primaries because they believed he would be easier to defeat than Clinton, never planning to vote for him in November.
Simply put, I cannot see Obama winning Florida, PA, Ohio, Michigan, or Indiana. Without these states, the Democrats will lose. Clinton can deliver all these states plus more. The results of the primaries proved that. Some say "yes, but he won in the Red states. He might be able to turn the Red states around." It would be foolish to give up a sure thing in order to chase after hypotheticals.
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Our Greatgrand Nation
Dear Fellow Americans.
Our Great-grand Nation, the United States of America
is and will face very critical and substantial
"Challenges" in coming,
months, years, and decades.
It is very essential that we pick our next
President on the basis of following criteria.
1. A candidate with a clear "Vision and Mission".
2. A candidate with a sound " Character and Integrity"
.
3. A candidate with a evident "Presidential
Temperament" and " Principled Judgment".
4. A candidate with "little "Washington exposure"
and "real future and past Voters".
5. A candidate who "Inspires us up" rather than
"Tears us down".
6. A candidate not based on past "sexism, racism, and
ageism".
In my professional and personal opinion, the only
candidate who has shown the above qualities and
characteristics is Senator Obama.
As an independent registered voter since 1980. I voted
for Carter, voted for Reagan, voted for First Bush,
and second Bush in 2000 and In over time last
interest in "Washington politics".I stopped voting.
Not a good idea under any circumstance, particularly
at present time.
This time we can not afford to stay on side lines and
let Washington remain the same.We can not afford our
Greatgreat Nation to become less than what we are and
can be.
We need to send clear and candid message to the world
and some 24 hour partisan piosonous hateful media.
These type of media outlets are trying to deprive,
dupe, and derail us from getting it right this time.
I pray and hope that we the American people won't be
part of this deception, seduction, and confusion.
These type of media and pundits are trying there best
to deny us better and replac our past remember some of
our bitterness and differences. { "Our Greatgrand
Nations people are persistently and constantly
subjected to Psychological terrorism" without our
knowledge by these these poisonous hateful partisan
media outlets".
We Americans are should not and would not to allow
these type of media psychologically terrorized,
traumatized and silence us this time.Not this time.
I am sure that we will get it right this
time and elect Senator Obama our next President. let
us not get dragged down into racism, sexism and
ageism.
Let us remember that our Greatgrand is constituted of
family, friends,fellowships, faith, funds,foundations,
fun, and future with fairness and freedom and without
fear or favor.
We can not afford to lose any of above conectins. Let
us stand up, be counted, save, build our Greatgrand
Nation for decades to come and regain our world
economic, and power status back.
God Bless our Great grand Nation and its diverse
people.
Our Greatgrand nation needs present and future
stability, security, safety,sustained progress and
restoration of our due status in this perilous Global
World at the all levels.
Yours sincerely,
COL.[retd] A.M.Khajawall
Forensic Psychiatrist.
Disables American Veteran.
Las Vegas Nevada.
May 08, 2008 11:33:02 AM [permalink] [report comment]