Clinton's Sag in the Polls Makes Big Pennsylvania Win Unlikely
A little more than a week ago, I presented some projections for the upcoming Democratic primaries. I projected results that seemed realistic from the then current polling but also optimistic from Hillary Clinton's point of view. Recent polling suggests those projections are no longer realistic.
My projection had Clinton winning 60 percent of the two-candidate vote in Pennsylvania. But in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent Pennsylvania polls, she's getting only 54 percent of the two-candidate vote. Obama is clearly leading in Philadelphia, where blacks will make up about half of the electorate; Quinnipiac has Obama ahead in the Philadelphia suburbs, but SurveyUSA has metro Philadelphia even, which must mean that Clinton is ahead in the suburbs.
My projection had Obama winning 55 percent of the two-candidate vote in North Carolina. Current polling gives Obama 61 percent of the two-candidate vote there. Curiously, the share of undecideds in North Carolina averages 20 percent, compared with 10 percent in Pennsylvania. Perhaps this just reflects the much heavier campaigning in Pennsylvania in recent weeks.
In both Pennsylvania and North Carolina, we have seen the same kinds of surges of support to Obama in periods when he was heavily outspending Clinton on television as we saw in similar periods in Ohio and Texas. In Texas, Obama seemed to seize the lead, while in Ohio, Clinton seemed to maintain a small lead. In both states, Clinton seemed to get an uptick just before the primary, and she ended up with 55 percent of the two-candidate vote in Ohio and 52 percent of the two-candidate vote in Texas.
Can she do the same in Pennsylvania? I think she needs to. If she gets only 54 percent of the two-candidate vote in Pennsylvania April 22 and if polling shows Obama running away with North Carolina and being competitive in Indiana, there could be a cascade of superdelegates toward Obama. Even if there isn't, a similar phenomenon could occur if Obama wins North Carolina by anything like his current margins in the polls and especially if he wins in Indiana as well. I still think Clinton is set to carry Kentucky and West Virginia by wide margins. And Puerto Rico, with 2.5 million voters, 80 percent of whom turn out in Puerto Rico elections, remains a huge question mark. But will she get there?
Tags: presidential election 2008 | primaries | Hillary Clinton | polls | Pennsylvania
Tools: 
Share
|
| Comments (33)
Reader Comments
Par For The Course
I think the polling is reflecting the general course of the Democratic race for the candidacy. And both candidates are proving to be true to their form.
Barack Obama makes great gains through exposure in the states he makes a heavy presence.
Hillary Clinton starts out strong in states she feels is on her side from the beginning, but the debacles within her own camp, combined with the negative, inheritance attitude seems to cause her to slip.
If she does not win by at least 4 percent, my prediction is she will go the "victim" road if she is being advised by the 14 year partner Penn. Rest assured, a foul will be called.
I am an Independent closely watching this race. I see smooth statesmanship on one side (Obama), and cutthroat politics on another (Clinton).
I know many other Independents agree that should Obama not win (though that's not very likely), it'll be McCain for Prez regardless of some failures of the GOP. Meaning the Democrats wouldn't be showing they were very democratic at all.
Sagging polls sagging chin
It is almost time for Hillary Clinton to bring on some tears ..... don't you think ?
What about the new SurveyUSA poll?
From what I have read, SurveyUSA does the most accurate polling.
Today it has Clinton 56%, Obama 38% in Pennsylvania. Blows a hole in in theory, huh?
I agree
Great article. I agree with you. I think that it is not too late, but people should help.
Hillary 08 :)
Hillary '08
For all you Pennsylvania voters who might read this...Do not believe Obama when he tells you he doesn't take money from lobbyists and special interests. Also, he takes plenty of money from employees of the oil and gas industry, and I know he's been stumping telling you he doesn't. He's also to date paid the superdelegates more money than Hillary has for their votes...yes, bribery is legal. There are many negatives concerning his days in the IL. Sen., but don't expect the mainstream media to tell you. Factcheck.org sheds some light on some of these issues for you. Also, take the Obama IQ quiz, and you'll find out more about his troubles in the IL Senate.
Don't believe all the garbage about Hillary being dishonest, for goodness sakes! Nobody has been under the microscope like the Clinton's. Has she exaggerated on the campaign trail, yes, and please tell me one candidate who hasn't. She will still be the best person to get us back on the right track economically, and if you will listen to people who have actually worked with her...they speak of her high morals, discipline, work ethic, ability to work across party lines, extensive knowledge of policy, and a passion to stick with a commitment. She really does want voters to hold her accountable. If you'll give her a chance to work for us...she'll work her heart out. Of this I have no doubt!!!
Obama likes getting union support now..but at an earlier time, he called them a special interest group which carried too much sway. hmmmm..
I do admit Obama gives a great speech!! If he makes it to the Pres., I'm sure when he leaves office, he'll earn as much or more than Bill from speeches, and there's nothing wrong with that. Don't get too upset about the millions the Clinton's have earned either....they went to the WH with less money than just about anybody in recent history...they are extremely intelligent, and they work their hearts out, and it's perfectly legal to give speeches and write books. Good for them!!! They paid more in taxes and gave more to charity than most in their tax bracket. Obama gave a very small 3% in charity. Rev. Wright received over $20,000. The Clinton's foundation does good work..e.g., they work extensively on aids in Africa, have helped the tsunami victims, Katrina victims, and many other worthwhile projects.
The Clinton's are good people. They've been investigated more than any other couple that's lived in the WH, and the final conclusion stated after $60,000,000 of trying to get them...."no other couple has been investigated so thoroughly with so little wrongdoing found".
I don't know of too many people at the top of the political game, subjected to the same amount of scrutiny, who could look as admirable with a true commitment to public service.
HRC'08
Hillary in pennsylvania
----And Hilary thought she had the carte blanche ("white trash") advantage going into this thing.....
Pennsylvania and North Carolina
I hope Hillary can "monopolize" these "green" states.
Best laid plans...
While it is indeed hard to give up on a dream, it appears that it's even harder to give up on a carefully cultivated and scrupulously drawn master plan.
This seems to be the point at which Ms Clinton finds herself. While only the di minimus prospect of a complete Obama meltdown would enable the New York Senator to capture the Democratic nomination this year, Hillary just hasn't realized it yet.
What she hasn't realized is that it really is over. And what she seemingly refuses to recognize is that in clinging to that minute chance at capturing the nomination, she shows herself as willing to whittle away at the cohesion the Democrats really need to win the White House and make gains in the House and Senate.
Having referred to Mrs. Clinton in print as a modern day Eleanor Rooseveldt, I would hate to have to re-classify her as someone more akin to a Perot or a Nader. This country has survived- barely- the do-anything-to-win brand of politics. No more, Mrs. Clinton. No more.
DrMarkus
Can she do again what she did in Texas and Ohio?
No, she cannot.
Though she might try more Canada/NAFTA lies, most people already learned that Hillary is a liar.
Most people already realize that she will offer one thing and do under-handed deals to ruin our economy and ship jobs elsewhere.
Most people know that she still haven't stopped taking advise from Mark Penn even though he was lobbying our government officials to get Free Trade Agreement between US and Columbian government.
Most people already know that Hillary makes up stories to sway votes, and that she will resort tears and any type of lies and deception to win.
Above all, most people know that HILLARY CLINTON CANNOT BE TRUSTED.
What should we pay attention to, Words or Actions?
Hillary to Gen Patreus: "no one," and those are your words, "no one in the United States ...
Hillary, you said it! Those are general's "words"!!! Since when words started to matter more? Oh yeah, since your campaign advisor got caught trying to get US-Columbia Free Trade Agreemnt passed by our government. Until then, actions were the most important thing.
Pennsylvania
Anyone who watched the General Petraeus Senate hearings would have to agree that Hillary Clinton is light-years ahead of Obama and McCain on Iraq. Her in-depth knowledge of the subject matter was very apparent and she asked excellent
questions, on point. Obama, however, looked uncomfortable and just re-worded
what the others before him asked.
Pennsylvania, we're counting on you to support Clinton; you can change this
campaign.
Dreaming of a better America
Hillary said she was raised on Pinocle and the american dream.
...I was raised on rice, and no dreams. But I did dream of a place called America where truth and generocity surpassed lying and greed. Hillary, you disappoint me beyond description.
Though she might try more Canada/NAFTA lies, most people already learned that Hillary is a liar.
Most people already realize that she will offer one thing and do under-handed deals to ruin our economy and ship jobs elsewhere.
Most people know that she still haven't stopped taking advise from Mark Penn even though he was lobbying our government officials to get Free Trade Agreement between US and Columbian government.
Most people already know that Hillary makes up stories to sway votes, and that she will resort tears and any type of lies and deception to win.
Above all, most people know that HILLARY CLINTON CANNOT BE TRUSTED.
PENN FOR CLINTON
women we all need to support each other clinton is a wonderful strong successful woman who is doing a wonderful job campaigning for america. she has real solutions. please, do not let obama charm influence your decision. obama is full of charm like most men when they desire something. what evidence of change is there that obama has made real change as senator compared to other senators. none. he is charming. but charm is not going to put america where she should be. we need a doer, giver, fighter, and survivor like clinton who has solutions to problems. clinton can think on her own without advisors.
she wants to make a real difference for the american people.
hillary ----campaigning for the people 2008----for the people---for the people
Hillary--the intelligent strong leader
Hillary Clinton is the better of the two candidates. She is intelligent and experienced in leadership. She will not have to have someone write out her answers to the Generals on Iraq like Obama did clearly yesterday in the hearings. He stumbles and stutters unless he is reading what someone else wrote. Can't people see that he needs experience that only time can give? Let him come back in about 8 years and show us what he has learned and rubbing elbows in the senate and being there to vote once in a while. And let me see the convictions of his vote and not try to change it to score political points. Then, maybe we can feel secure in letting him lead at the top of our government.
america u s a wiil regret
there will be great trouble and confusion for america for choose black man as president .
The foolishness of "Obamania of NJ."
Gentlemen and gentlewomen: After earning 5 college degrees, I thought I'd seen it all. But the benighted soul who signs himself "Obamania" is worse than all others. He refers to Obama as "Savior..." There are no saviors in politics. A fool who seeks a savior is one who is willing to deliver his brain to another.
He refers to America as "racist..." Yet I defy anyone to show me how we have been more racist than, say, France in Algeria, England in India, Holland in the East and West Indies, or ther Arab nations in Africa.
He wants an apology for slavery. Fine. But what good does this do? Did England or France or Germany or Russia or China or Indochina do so?
He wants reparations. Fine: but name one major or minor empire that will do so? Do we get England and Holland to give us reparations for bringing slaves to America in 1619? Will they comply?
We should put our efforts into productive matters, like studying why black males are so much less able than black females; why black pregnancies are so high; about why so many blacks think the US invented AIDS, even tho' this canard was admitted by the USSR to have been manufactured by TASS in Moscow.
In closing: do remember: Freud said that the gravest intellectual error is self-pity. I do allege that this is this writer's gravest fault, and one that will cause intellectual gangrene. Indeed, the poor child is now in the process of inflicting intellectual suicide upon himself. Why, please? to what end?
Sincerest regards to a poor child --
W.
Clinton Pennsylvania Win
It does not matter whether or not Clinton wins in Pennsylvania. She has already lost to Obama. And Obama will lose to McCain in November. It is irksome to me how infinitely naive this Obama guy is. Now he apparently thinks he can "make nice" with the likes of the Iranian president and other thugs around the world. Well, you cannot make peace with the devil. You'll lose if you try and you'll scamper off with your tail between your legs. Meanwhile we will have a very interesting time leading up to the Democratic convention. There will be so much antipathy, acrimony, hostility and ill will between Hillary and Obama, that to even imagine that one of them will be chosen for a running mate to the other is laughable. Hold on to your hats, folks, it will be a bumpy ride, but entertaining nevertheless. This is just a preview of attractions yet to be enjoyed.
Don't throw it away, PA!
Barack Obama is a smart, attractive man who speaks marvelously well when he has prepared his remarks in advance. He is also someone who will lose the general election due to his inexperience, his unsavory advisors and his insistence on playing the race card - not to mention his unpatriotic wife. He talks unity, but his supporters are insulting and divisive.
Don't throw it away, Pennsylvania. Help nominate Hillary - the brilliant candidate who has demonstrated her commitment to Democratic values for 35 years, and has *proved* she can bring Democrats and Republicans to make change.
What he is not is a wins this nomination, we will have to listen to 6 more months of the race card. If heWhich would be better for our nation
ALREADY CONFUSION
FIRST OF ALL, america u s a wiil regret NEEDS TO LEARN HOW TO USE GOOD GRAMMER. BACK TO THE REAL ISSUE, WE ARE ALREADY IN GREAT TROUBLE AND CONFUSION IN AMERICA . ALL OF THIS IS HAPPENING, BECAUSE WE CHOSE THIS PARTICULAR WHITE MAN.
Obama gets a Pass on the truth!
I get frustrated that the main stream media seem to ONLY focus on Hillary's lies! WHAT ABOUT OBAMA'S MANY LIES! Just listen to his life stories he tells in his campaign speeches! ONE EXAMPLE OF MANY- Obama said the Kennedys paid for his father to come to the US in 1960, when it is documented that his father was already here in the US studying in 1959! Another example - He first said , about his pastor, Wright, there was nothing wrong with his sermons- then,Obama said he never heard any controversial sermons in 20 years of attendance- then, in Obama's "race speech" he said he DID hear Wright say things that were controversial! WHAT IS THE TRUTH? There are MANY problems with the "MOST LIBERAL SENATOR" in 2006 and 2007 (Ranked by the National Journal-based on his voting record)! His associates are Anti-American: William Ayers,terrorist/ Tony Rezco,chicago crook on trial/,Frank Marshall Davis,Marxist Communist Mentor to Obama from 1971-1979-Obama writes about Frank in his book "Dreams of my Father",/Rev. Wright, Anti-American Mentor,advisor for 20 years! People in Pennsylvania- WAKE UP and reject him! And this all has nothing to do with race!!!
Obama
This blog has some people that are confused. Hillary has plenty of scandals behind her in her history. The republicans will come out full throddle if Hillary is the nominee. Obama has plenty to throw at McCain. McCain can't throw Wright at Obama because of Pastor Hagee. Obama can use the fact that McCain's health insurance plan will exclude cancer patients. He will leave the troops in Iraq for years. The economy will remain the same with McCain in the white house. We need to get a nominee democrats, so we can win the white house. VOTE OBAMA 08!!!!
The polling also shows
late breakers tend to vote Clinton where she leads the polls. Contrary to conventional media wisdom this year, late breakers don't break for Obama. They break for the candidate who is currently in the lead in that state. That happened for Hillary in Texas and California, and for Obama in Wisconsin, just to name a few examples.
Most of the polls that show a smallish difference between the two candidates show large numbers of "undecided". The polls with large differences show a small number of undecideds.
I have been trying to make sense of the poll numbers this year, and that seems to be the pattern. The undecideds vote the candidate favored by the state as a whole, and Hillary's win will be larger than the current RCP average.
In addition, she doesn't need to in by 20%. If the turnout runs true, she can win by a smaller percentage, and she cuts majorly in to Obama's "popular" vote lead (which is currently statistically insignificant).
Election
I hope the people in Pennsylvania are able to focus on Obama. Learn about his character.
Republic in 07 reported that Obama's pastor was a Muslim. It was never reported in the media until Rush pointed that out yesterday. Obama talks a good game such as he has good judgment. He listened to Wright for 20 years and took his children to listen to him at church. Exposing them to hatred. That is the reason why there is so much hatred in the world because of Wright and people like him.
I heard Obama was also connected to a terrorist in the US> Why isn't this reported by the media. The only thing people is see expensive commercials on TV how great Obama is. I am voiting for Hillary Clinton or John McCain At least I know who they are
HE WILL WIN
I dont want to get into a "nasty" argument with any of you. I just want to advise you that Barack Obama will win the nomination, and WILL go on to win the President of the United States. You can whine, argue, complain, or whatever you want to do, but this is inevitable, and you can dont anything to stop it. So dont let all these other people upset you with their ranting and ravings......you will have the last laugh on them. Just sit back, watch....wait....and you WILL WIN.
OBAMA WILL BE PRESIDENT
You people can rant and rave all day long and it wont help your case. You might as well just shut up and quit your complaining, because Obama WILL BE PRESIDENT AND YOU CANT DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT. So as Bill Clinton told the Democratic Party: "Just chill out".
glasnost
Wow, the anti-obama trolls are quite the swarm here. I wonder how many of them are astroturf? For the uninformed folks, astroturf = paid by political organizations to smear people on internet comment boards. It really happens.
You know the far right is desperate and out of Ammo with Obama. And why do you know? Because they're reduced to fabricating a lost list of Barack Obama's supposed friends and then churning out hit pieces on the evilness of Obama's alledged friends. They've got nothing on the guy himself. If George Bush can snort cocaine and skip on his national guard service, I think Obama can get away with having a preacher who once said something mean about America.
Reclaiming the White House ...
Hillary Clinton has been masterminding and preparing America for a ‘Great Fall.’
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GC01Df03.html
America, awaken from your deep slumber, “It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit.” Noel Coward
......hehe
Obama will win. Why whine? Be happy that we will have a pres. who can string a sentence together! Maybe we will even reclaim a bit of dignity as a country.
...Maybe
I am truly perplexed. We have a President who does not care one whit about the American people. It is obvious he has been bullheaded and has lied repeatedly. Why would we want to do the same thing again? Why? Has anyone really paid attention to Hillary Clinton and her husband. They have tried everything underhanded that they. Yes. She is a very bright woman. I know many bright woman... any of whom I would vote for before her. She has lied repeatedly. She has used whatever underhanded tactics she can to discredit Barack Obama. She has surrounded herself with people who care more about politics and what they can gain (for the most part), than they do about the American people. We are getting a very familiar ring here. Barack Obama, from all that I have seen, has tried to run a decent, honest, above board campaign. He really has not been more of the same ol' same ol'. I am a 62 year old, white, Catholic (until the child sex abuse scandal) woman, who comes from a very blue collar background. I have lived in the South as well as the Northeast. Believe me, I have experienced my share of poverty, lack of health care for my kids, at times not knowing where our next meal would come from, been a single parent, etc. etc. etc. Yet, I would no more vote for a person who feels lying and being underhanded is the way to run this country, than I would elect to go back to abject poverty. At this point in our history we are truly at a critical juncture with extremely serious problems facing our planet, as well as very serious problems here at home. Our credibility in the world is at an all time low. Do we really want someone who is so fractious and divisive as our president in these times? Please, someone, explain to me how and why we seem to be locked into a mindset that is at complete odds with our well being. Please, really look at Senator Clinton's words and actions as a whole picture. Please, don't see as a woman candidate, our a 'good fighter' (did I mention I am of Irish descent as well and can appreciate be a fighter as much as anyone), or a policy wonk. Look at her character. Would you want to work for a boss like her? We need a president who is a person of integrity. Someone who is thoughtful and challenges us to be better than we are... not less than. Obviously, I support Barack Obama. But, I have looked very, very closely at this entire campaign. Please America, let's all wake up, roll up our sleeves and do the hard work required of us to move all of us forward. Barack Obama can lead us in a direction we need to go... and he asks us to be full participants in our life's destiny.
I am truly perplexed. We have a President who does not care one whit about the American people. It is obvious he has been bullheaded and has lied repeatedly. Why would we want to do the same thing again? Why? Has anyone really paid attention to Hillary Clinton and her husband. They have tried everything underhanded that they. Yes. She is a very bright woman. I know many bright woman... any of whom I would vote for before her. She has lied repeatedly. She has used whatever underhanded tactics she can to discredit Barack Obama. She has surrounded herself with people who care more about politics and what they can gain (for the most part), than they do about the American people. We are getting a very familiar ring here. Barack Obama, from all that I have seen, has tried to run a decent, honest, above board campaign. He really has not been more of the same ol' same ol'. I am a 62 year old, white, Catholic (until the child sex abuse scandal) woman, who comes from a very blue collar background. I have lived in the South as well as the Northeast. Believe me, I have experienced my share of poverty, lack of health care for my kids, at times not knowing where our next meal would come from, been a single parent, etc. etc. etc. Yet, I would no more vote for a person who feels lying and being underhanded is the way to run this country, than I would elect to go back to abject poverty. At this point in our history we are truly at a critical juncture with extremely serious problems facing our planet, as well as very serious problems here at home. Our credibility in the world is at an all time low. Do we really want someone who is so fractious and divisive as our president in these times? Please, someone, explain to me how and why we seem to be locked into a mindset that is at complete odds with our well being. Please, really look at Senator Clinton's words and actions as a whole picture. Please, don't see as a woman candidate, our a 'good fighter' (did I mention I am of Irish descent as well and can appreciate be a fighter as much as anyone), or a policy wonk. Look at her character. Would you want to work for a boss like her? We need a president who is a person of integrity. Someone who is thoughtful and challenges us to be better than we are... not less than. Obviously, I support Barack Obama. But, I have looked very, very closely at this entire campaign. Please America, let's all wake up, roll up our sleeves and do the hard work required of us to move all of us forward. Barack Obama can lead us in a direction we need to go... and he asks us to be full participants in our life's destiny.
Vote For the Next Generation
Ask yourself these questions. Do you want your daughters and son to be drafted for another senseless war? If there was a chance for us to have peace, what face do you think the Middle-Eastern countries would feel more comfortable talking to? Do you want to lose your homes, jobs or pensions? Are you tired of living in fear? All of these questions will affect your children and grandchildren 4 to 8 years from now. If we keep going into the direction that we are headed, the issues of racism won't be about how white or black you are. You will be descriminated based on how poor or rich are you? You will either be classified as rich or poor. The middle class family will soon cease to exist. This year’s election is not about what you can do for you but what you can do for your children and grandchildren.
Add your thoughts
Your comment will be posted immediately, unless it is spam or contains profanity. For more information, please see our comment guidelines.advertisement
Obama
Obama is our Savior. Barak and Reverend Wright are Right, God D*** america. Now is the time to rally around Barak and Michelle and make them proud! No more so called elections where typical white people vote! And news flash america, Barak is right, your typical white american is a racist! Obama will apologize to our Muslim brothers for arrogant american policies of hate and slavery. Only Obama can forgive an evil nation founded on slavery. We gave cash payments to those Japanese who survived our uprovoked and vicious attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Reparations now for all Africans!
Apr 08, 2008 18:45:01 PM [permalink] [report comment]