Can Clinton Win the Popular Vote?
Back on March 28, I posted some projections of the popular vote in the remaining contests, projections based on optimistic assumptions from the point of view of Hillary Clinton's campaign, to see if it was possible she could win a plurality of the vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses. My projections said she could, if she won certain percentages of the two-candidate vote in these states.
How's she doing? She's running short of what she needs. The following table shows her percentage of the two-candidate vote in the latest RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana, and the percentages I projected for her in each of those states.
| State | Current Polls | My Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 54 | 60 |
| North Carolina | 42 | 45 |
| Indiana | 53 | 60 |
There is one polling firm, however, that shows results close to those projections, SurveyUSA. So I've added their numbers to the table:
| State | Current Polls | My Projection | SurveyUSA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 54 | 60 | 60 |
| North Carolina | 42 | 45 | 44 |
| Indiana | 53 | 60 | 59 |
Is SurveyUSA right? I don't know, but I'm sure Hillary Clinton hopes so.
Let me remind you of what happens after the last primaries June 3 if my projections prove to be right. Barack Obama will be leading in pledged delegates, those elected in primaries and caucuses. Clinton will be leading in popular votes. Obama's delegate lead will be entirely due to his victories in caucus states. Clinton's popular vote lead will be entirely due to her projected victory in the Puerto Rico primary. Who then is entitled to the nomination? You could easily think up plausible arguments for either side. This would be a nightmare for the superdelegates who will have to make the decision.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Hillary Clinton | polls
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Reader Comments
Saddam and al Qaeda intel battle
By the way, thank you very much Mr. Barone for being one of the few voices of sanity on this whole saga of prewar intelligence battles and the Saddam/terrorism stories.
hillary
The fact is clinton has alienated so many democrats if she gets the nomination I will not vote for he. I support Obama but I wouldn't even vote for him if he picks hillary as vice president. She only has one vote in my family come november and we are all democrats. If she is the nominee then its another 4 years at least if not eight of republican rule.
It all depends on what the popular vote is. Do you include the results of the caucuses? What about the caucuses that did not release official individual results? What abut Michigan? Florida? I don't have an answer to any of these questions, and they are more, but I can see that they make a difference in how the total comes out. The way I see it is that the 2 candidates are pretty close to tied in all relevant metrics, and it will be up to the delegates <i>ex-officio</i> to decide.
Good Luck Guys, and have a good time in Denver
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