Clinton Flips on Superdelegates
Tom Edsall has the scoop: The Hillary Clinton campaign is urging superdelegates not to endorse anyone. It is obviously afraid of a cascade to Barack Obama. And rightly so, given the latest Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania, which shows Clinton leading Obama among primary voters by only 49 to 43 percent. That looks just about the same as Clinton’s current lead in Ohio.
This suggests the following situation if on March 4 Clinton wins in both Ohio and Texas--a dicier proposition every day, given the Texas numbers. As I’ve explained, she’s unlikely to get any significant delegate advantage out of such victories unless her support rises sharply in the next six days. And the Pennsylvania numbers suggest she’s not likely to get much delegate advantage out of an Ohio-size victory there. Pennsylvania selects 55 delegates statewide by proportional representation and 103 delegates by proportional representation in congressional districts. In addition, there are 14 “soft, unpledged” delegates. Including those delegates, a 49-to-43 percent victory would give Clinton a 29-to-26 advantage in statewide delegates. Six of the 19 congressional districts with 26 delegates have even numbers of delegates: probably no delegate advantage for either candidate there; score it 13 to13. The two black-majority districts in Philadelphia have 16 delegates: probably an 11-to-5 Obama advantage. If you assume Clinton carries each of the 11 remaining districts, all with odd numbers of delegates, she gets a 43-to-32 advantage there. Final score: Clinton 90, Obama 82.
In the 2000 race, Bill Bradley, after a big loss in Iowa and a narrow loss in New Hampshire, found it impossible to sustain his campaign for the five weeks before the next contest. He withdrew. The Pennsylvania numbers suggest Clinton would face the same problem, even if she wins both Ohio and Texas. A win in Pennsylvania would not be assured and would in any case not deliver a significant delegate advantage. Obama would have a big money advantage. Yet how could she justify withdrawing after just winning the nation’s second- and seventh-largest states?
A real dilemma for her and her party, which they will be spared if she loses Texas.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Hillary Clinton | superdelegates
Tools: 
Share
|
| Comments (22) | Print
Reader Comments
Voters to superdelegates: Support Obama
The voters are speaking loud and clear.
Primaries or caucuses have already been held in 36 of 50 states. Obama is ahead by nearly a million votes, and has won twice as many contests as Hillary Clinton. He also leads Clinton in pledged delegates.
Obama's appeal among independent voters makes him a formidable general election candidate. But if Clinton is nominated, the race will be too close to call against McCain.
Enough is enough. We are a coalition of voters urging the Democratic superdelegates to support Barack Obama:
http://www.votersforobama.com
Take five minutes and use the tools on our site to call or e-mail an undecided superdelegate in your state.
We can make a difference by letting superdelegates know how many of their constituents want Obama to be the Democratic presidential nominee.
I strongly believe that Barak Obama is misleading and corrupting our young students and youth's mind and soul who are future of out country. He just tell them what they want to hear with fancy words and simple sugar coated idealism, fill up with false hope of change, OK to plagiarism which totally opposite of the type of conduct that our educators are working hard to eliminate,so that they can work hard to learn suject matters, and also learn ethics and morals and standards will effect throughout their lives. He may get massive votes from them for his own political embition, but he doesn't have anything to give them back only the quick fix and being cool. As parents, I could say " SHAME ON YOU, Obama."
go Hillary.
This is silly about Obama being in a lead so strong that Hillary should drop out or lose the support of super delegates.
Let's see what the pledged delegate count is after Tuesday. Let's assume Hillary loses both races -- highly unlikely -- she'd still have just under 50% the vote of voters and pledged delegates. That's hardly decisive and, in my opinion, should convince super delegates that she, and not only Obama, is a strong, viable candidate.
Plus, as for independents, those who are left leaning will vote for Obama or Hillary come November. They're not going to McCain. Those who are centrists or leaning right, they'll never vote for Obama but would definitely consider Hillary.
Advantage: Hillary.
Add your thoughts
Your comment will be posted immediately, unless it is spam or contains profanity. For more information, please see our Comments FAQ.advertisement
