Is Hillary Due for a Comeback?
There has been some scoffing at Clinton pollster Mark Penn's memo issued yesterday arguing that Hillary Clinton can still win more delegates than Barack Obama. The memo contains a certain amount of campaign boilerplate:
Hillary is the only candidate who can deliver the economic change voters want—the only candidate with a real plan and a record of fighting for health care, housing, job creation and protecting Social Security.
But, hey, he's paid (and very well) to say things like this. And there's independent polling data that seem to support his argument.
Start with Pennsylvania, which votes April 22. Quinnipiac today released a poll showing Clinton leading Obama there 52 to 36 percent. Whites back Clinton 58 to 31; blacks back Obama 71 to 10. Since Pennsylvania's population is only 10 percent black, that accounts for Clinton's big lead.
Then look at Ohio, which votes March 4. Here Quinnipiac shows Clinton ahead 55 to 34 percent. Whites back Clinton 64 to 28; blacks back Obama 64 to 17. Ohio's population is 11 percent black. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown (whom veterans of the campaign trail will remember as a first-rate reporter) explains why Clinton seems to be doing so well in Ohio (and, by implication, demographically similar Pennsylvania) after losing eight straight contests:
Ohio is as good a demographic fit for Sen. Clinton as she will find. It is blue-collar America, with a smaller percentage of both Democrats with college educations and African-Americans than in many other states where Sen. Obama has carried the day. If Clinton can't win the primary there, it is very difficult to see how she stops Obama.
Quinnipiac's result is similar to two other recent Ohio polls. Rasmussen has Clinton ahead 51 to 37 percent; SurveyUSA has her ahead 56 to 39 percent. The only Ohio poll taken in January, by the Columbus Dispatch, showed Clinton ahead of Obama 42 to 19 percent. Obama has apparently made gains since then. But so has Clinton.
In the other big state that votes March 4, Texas, it seems that there has been no public poll since last April(!). Texas's population is 12 percent black and 32 percent Hispanic, so we can expect the Democratic primary electorate there to be about 20 percent black and perhaps 15 to 20 percent Hispanic.
One primary Penn did not stress in his memo was Wisconsin. The Clinton campaign line has been that the post-Super Tuesday February contests are all dismal ground for their candidates. But the Wisconsin polling data tell a different story. Scott Rasmussen shows Obama leading Clinton by only 47 to 43 percent. This is similar to Strategic Vision's Wisconsin survey, which shows Obama ahead 45 to 41 percent. Wisconsin's population is 6 percent black and 3 percent Hispanic.
How can Clinton be doing so much better here than she did in Maryland and Virginia? One reason is that there are smaller percentages of black voters in these states. Another, probably more important, reason is that the white Democratic primary voters are different. In Maryland and Virginia, they tended to be quite upscale and on the young side, especially in the big suburban counties outside Washington, D.C. In Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, they're much more downscale. At a time when Clinton and Obama are essentially tied in national polls, it stands to reason that if Obama is ahead in states like Maryland and Virginia, Clinton will be ahead in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Texas is another, interesting story. Texas doesn't have party registration, and, historically, huge numbers of white voters participated in the state's Democratic presidential primary—1.3 million in 1980, 1.8 million in 1988, 1.5 million in 1992. That number plunged downward to 786,000 in 2000 and 839,000 in 2004, even though the state's population grew from 14 million in 1980 to 22 million in 2004. The obvious conclusion: An awful lot of white Texans began voting in the Republican primary again. This year's Texas Democratic primary could turn out to be largely a battle of minorities, with blacks voting heavily for Obama and Latinos, as in most other states so far, heavily for Clinton. In this battle Obama will undoubtedly have an organizational advantage, both because his campaign— unlike hers— has done organizational work in the post-Super Tuesday states and because of the strength of pre-existing black turnout organizations. As for white Democratic primary voters, upscale Texans still tend to be heavily Republican, though a little less so than 15 or 20 years ago—very much contrary to the pattern in Northern Virginia and Montgomery County, Md. White downscale voters in southern states have generally gone for Clinton, but not by overwhelming margins. Of the four states we've looked at here, Texas appears the most problematic for Clinton, though she's on far stronger ground there than in the already concluded post-Super Tuesday contests.
Next: A look at the prospects for delegate counts in these upcoming primaries
Tags: Ohio | Texas | Wisconsin | presidential election 2008 | primaries | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton
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Reader Comments
I'm not against obama,but the country will be in better shape with someone like hillary clinton .hillary has proven experance and if there would be a clinton obama ticket ,it would be enought experance mixed with new ideas I ThinkThey could work good togather.we do not need any more bush Polocys in our whitehouse .we feel that if mccain gets in the whitehouse we are going to regreat the day we voted him in . having an clinton obama ticket would insure a new direction for our country.hopely then Obama would be ready eight years later .,.and It would'nt hurt us to have the democrates in office 16 years, sence the mess the republicians has gotten us into.I think if tis country wants to make real history then lets vote in the first women president and the first black vice President This would be wonderful
Texas Polls
There have been several polls done in Texas. Clinton is up by about 10 points on average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html
I live in Ohio, and we are stupid. We voted for Bush twice! How smart can we be? Our conservative newspaper, The Columbus Dispatch endorsed Bush. The suburbs here (such as Hilliard) have a lot of racist people who would be scared about electing a "colored" person. Hopefully when Obama brings his message of hope and change here, people will start to wake up from their coma. He needs to air his other commercials here as well. The only one he is airing is his "mother" ad, which is pretty boring. Hillary is ahead here, but his battle is far from over!
Go Hillary GO
Hillary will come out the big winner in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I have no doubt.
She certainly will be the "come back kid."
She has the experience and we all know the positives as well as the negatives. So, we know what we are getting, where as with Obama, we just hear him talk, talk, talk, and nothing comes out that mean anything. The Washington Media has painting a fantastic picture of him, but then again, who is the Washington Media. A bunch of Clinton bashers from years gone by. What more can I say?
~
Once the American electorate starts getting their heads around a choice between:
a McCain presidency, or
an Obama presidency,
they will come running back to team Clinton.
Trust me.
Human beings choose stability over chaos every time.
And, now that Sen. Obama has started talking about something other than Hope, it turns out that the specifics of all of his programs are almost identical to those of Sen. Clinton.
Huh. What a surprise.
Stay tuned. This is a long way from over.
~
A Dem Convention Fight is good for McCain
Please... Texas Republicans and Independents vote for HILLARY. A Democrat convention fight, where the Clinton machine will give her the nod by re-seating Michigan and Florida, will tear apart the Democrat Party. Blacks will leave the party in droves. So, again, please vote for Hillary!!!
Texas Democrat Primary
Re: Texas
I don't see in your analysis of Texas any reference to the quirks in delegate election.
Voting contests are within State Senate districts. The number of delegates at stake in each district is a function of turnout in the two previous elections. I understand black turnout in the last two elections has been high while Hispanic turnout has been low. This favors Obama.
It's Her Turn!
Of course Hillary is due for a comeback. It's her turn! She deserves it and America will see that. With Nancy Pelosi leading the Congress and Hillary Clinton leading the White House Washington is going to get real change!
Texas poll accuracy
With McCain already a shoo-in, there will undoubtedly be large numbers of Texas Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who will vote for Clinton in the Democratic (open) primary. Why? Because they will perceive her to be more beatable in November. This bodes well for her there and should be taken into account by pollsters if they are to get a true picture.
I would add 2-5% points on any Clinton number on that basis.
LatinoVoter
I, for one, live in the trenches of life and not in the clouds. Meaningful change is concrete. Hilary Clinton understands this to her very core. Obama will tell you one thing and do another; he failed to speak up for Maytag workers during plant closures while taking tens of thousands in contributions from the owner of Maytag. When asked to help in his home state to prevent nuclear waste emissions from nuclear power plants he responded with weakness and sold out to his nuclear power plant donors; nothing changed except the amount he got in contributions from his nuclear buddies.
Hilary delivers the tools we need to build our own lives. We who support her( Latinos, women, and working class people) share in a common value; when we need help, we ask and when we see someone in need among us we come to their aid (Obama will sell you out to his elite friends). Hilary needs our help now, she has been there for us, we should be there for her NOW.
In the memory of my mother and my grandmother whose burdens were heavy and for the future of my sons and daughters whose world is in peril, I support and join Hilary in her lifelong struggle to make solutions real and meaningful change possible. To my brothers and sisters in the Latino community, thank you for standing with Hilary to build the new coalition for change.
Obama is up to $800bn pledged spending in office with his new $150bn green energy plan. Thats a lot of money...
Anyway, PA and OH are guaranteed victories for Hillary.
PA = Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and Kentucky inbetween. I am a resident of PA (Philadelphia area) and I agree with this assessment. There is next to 0 black population in central PA, and Bush handily won all of the districts in 2000 and 2004. These areas are guaranteed to heavily favor HRC on April 22.
What you will see is HRC and BO focusing in on the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs. These areas are pretty much split 50/50 conservative/liberal and have a lot of population.
And although Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are rich with african american population they are also rich with union worker population, which has been a good demographic for HRC.
I think Ohio is more of the same.
texas polls
ARG has just released a poll today the 15 of February, which puts Obama ahead of Clinton 48 to 42
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
Textas
Look for a huge influx of McCain supporters and Republican voters to put Hillary over the top.
Honesty, economic revival and international respect
Could be the biggest difference between TX, OH, PA, and VA and MD is that voters in the first three haven't met Sen. Obama yet (regular folks aren't political junkies, most of us prefer sports-talk to Washinton double-talk). It will be hard to beat the best known name in Democratic politics in just three weeks, but no one is inevitable this year. Senator Obama connects to the hopes and aspirations of working class and middle class Americans who long for economic revival, honesty in government, and an America that is respected and admired in the world.
Obama will likely win...
This is all well and good, but what about the actual number of delegates she needs.
Obama is ahead by 135 pledged delegates. That means she needs landslide victories in PA, TX, and OH, and plus win other states, to catch up.
Because this is unlikely, Obama wins--unless the super-delegates vote contrary to the pledged delegate counts, or FL or MI delegates are seated without adjustment. Both these latter two events would trigger a revolt in the party and position the Dems to lose in November (i.e., not going to happen).
Bottom line: Obama is very likely going to be the Dem nominee.
Does anyone remember what the polls were saying about Hillary in December? Feb.5 should have been Coronation Day. Edwards would have a few more contests before conceding and Obama would have been blown out of the water.
As recently as last Sunday polls were signaling Hillary had a chance to win in Virginia.
Nationally, Hillary was 20 points ahead. Now Sen. Obama is ahead.
There is a sea change in the Democratic landscape. Forget the polls, forget thje pundits, forget conventional wisdom. Hillary is toast.
Texas Count
You need to take a very close look at the way the delegates are doled out in Texas : Not winner take all , not even a straight proportional count more of a modified version Mrs Clintin may win by 5-10% , but they would end up splitting the delegates almost 50-50%
Democratic Platform
I wish that this democratic race would stay with the issues that are som important to America and stay away from the Black and White issue. Raceist is far from being dead.
texas polls
A just released poll by ARG (American Research Group), puts Obama ahead of Clinton by 6 points in Texas.
Kool-Aid
Why should Latinos trust Obama when his track record in actually doing what he says he will do is so poor? Unlike rich white liberal ivory-tower folk and college students that drink his lofty kool-aid, Latinos can ill afford to be misled and let down. How does voting for Obama, change the ugly realities of race in the neighborhood or serve to address the Black and Latino conflicts of culture in the neighborhood? Obama offers few if any concrete answers to real life issues and concerns. I would like to see some original thinking on his part when it comes to economic and other program plans; stealing Hilary’s plans as his own is weak.
Hillary, Obama and ETxas
The truth is that if Obama is the noiminee, and providing that HRC is not on the ticket with him, she will do all that she can to assure he loses the race to John McAmnesty so that she can rise again in 3 years and claim the nomination for 2012.
Any thoughtful Texas republicans/independents inclined to pull the lever for HRC in the primary need to understand that she is more of an asset to us if she's not not on the ticket, than she would be to us if she is on the ticket. Think it through folks.
The True Texas Poll Numbers
New Rasmussen poll is showing Clinton up by +17 in Texas, so one has to wonder about the other poll at +7. So maybe the actual figure is somewhere in between like +12, which sounds reasonable given she was up in a January poll by 10. Either way she is up in Texas.
Texas toast
This is the first time in 28 years Texans have had anything like a say in the outcome of a national primary election. It's also the first time they've seen presidential televison ads since 1988. Expect the poll numbers to change dramatically as Obama's media percolates thru the airwaves.
The central problem for Hillary is that the tide has changed and she has no where else to go but down in Texas. She knows her margin is eroding in the big urban centers so she's apparently trying to compensate by drumming up new voters in historically turnout-poor south Texas. Not a recipe for success.
Dallas, Austin and Houston will cast most of the primary vote. Obama is sure to take Dallas & Austin, and very likely Houston. Obama already enjoys the support of most local officials in those cities. Texas also has an open primary and without a compelling reason to vote in the Republican primary, everyone and their third cousin will be voting in the Democratic - and they ain't votin' fer Hillary.
No one deserves the presidency
The calendar was set up for HRC to be crowned the nominee early so she could focus on the general. That has not happened, she was not prepared for having to campaign post 5 Feb, and Obama has managed to challenge and maintain parity with one of the strongest brands in Democratic politics. I would not call this one over yet, as there are still a few weeks for the candidates to campaign and polls for the Democratic races do not seem to be very accurate.
However, to Hillfan in OR, re:
''It's Her Turn! Of course Hillary is due for a comeback. It's her turn! She deserves it and America will see that.''
I disagree, and think it cheapens US democracy to give the highest post in the land to someone, because 'its her turn'. As a woman, I do not and would not want something because it was my turn. If she wins it, then perhaps she deserves it, but not otherwise. And due to the serious mishandling of her campaign thus far, and wasting a ridiculous amount of money, I am not sure she deserves it anyway.
My money is on Obama, and failing that, McCain.
Obama's Appeal
Obama has shown that he can capture votes in all categories; men, women, whites as well as blacks, BUT he has the overwhelming support - as much as 90% - of black voters. In truith, he really is the black candidate, and for blacks it really is about identity politics. Finally, one of their own has a chance!
Just imagine if he becomes trhe Democratic nominee and wins 90% of black voters nationwide in the general election. Win or lose, it is bound to increase racial polarization and tension. And should he lose to Mccain, just imagine the resentment in the black community all across the country.
Obama, inspite of his message of unity, is an inherently divisive candidate.
So, if I'm reading this article correctly, the black vote in Maine, Connecticut, Delaware, and Idaho put Obama over the top?
Clinton and Obama are not going to appear on the same ticket. If Obama wins, he will likely appoint a woman like Janet Napolitano or Kathleen Sebelius to his ticket; he and his message of hop and change would not work with Hillary as VP. If Hillary wins, Obama would not take the VP slot. McCain does better than Hillary in the polls. Obama will more than likely sit the election out and try again in 2012 if he does not win. This is prefereble to getting beaten as the VP, which kills your presidential hopes. (look at Edwards and Mondale as examples of defeated VP candidates. Neither one has much of a political future.)
This phase of the election is not just about wins, Clinton has to win big to catch up in the delegate race. If Obama makes OH or TX close, a win is not enough for Hillary. Hillary can come back, but it becomes less likely as the campaign goes along.
Obama will likely win Wisconsin, and then Texas will be close. The Texas delegate formula will make the TX delegate count a wash, although Clinton will win TX outright. Ohio will be where Clinton lives or dies.
Hillary May be Due For A Comeback because the Mainstream Media Wants to Give Her One
The mainstream media plays into these trends. The mainstream media wants Hillary to comeback because her comeback would be good for business. The longer the Democratic Primaries continue, the more drama, twists and turns ensue, the more people will read and watch election news programming. Hillary Clinton right now is being propped up by the mainstream media. They are doing all they can to keep her alive, despite the fact that her base is largely disgruntled little old ladies and poor latinos. Such people are easily misled by a woman who is a FAUX FEMINIST and PSUEDO MIDDLE CLASS WARRIOR.
Texas
American Research Group Poll from TX done 13th and 14th and just released has Obama 48 and HRC at 42. If she does not win both OH and TX buy 15+ margins she is likely done.
Barone Fan From San Diego
As usual, very nice non-partisan article from Mr. Barone.
Even the bloggers are well balanced here between Clinton and Obama supporters.
Mr. Krauthammer's article is also very interesting:
>> Democrats are worried that the Obama spell will break between the time of his nomination and the time of the election, and deny them the White House. <<<
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ article/2008/02/14/AR2008021403105.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
It seems like Clinton is also due for big-time comeback in March and April.
Why should Latinos vote for Barack Obama?
First of all, the Latinos in Texas are a completely different set of people than are those in California. Plus, HRC threw her "Head Latina" under the bus after she served her purpose on Super Tuesday. Latinos aren't dumb and I doubt we are going to see the blind allegiance to her that the Californian Latino's showed. Plus, exit polls in other states where there is a significant Latino demographic show Obama making headway with these people (see Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, etc.). As he does with all groups, Obama does better and better the more face time he has and he has all the time in the world AND a ground game in Texas that HRC, who thought the coronation would take place after Super Tuesday, does not.
Primary Colors
Since it is increasingly difficult to follow exactly how the Democratic nomination for President will be determined, perhaps the Clinton campaign should provide this handy guide to what should count and what should not in the primary process - based on their recent spinning.
Things that DON’T count:
Caucus states. These votes are driven by charisma-crazed voters who can not be trusted to make sound decisions.
States with a high percentage of African-American voters. They are “proud” of my opponent and are voting just based on race.
States with a high percentage of well-educated voters. George H. W. Bush was the “Education President” after all.
Red states. We’re going to lose them anyway, so their Democrats don’t count in America. (Exception: Texas counts if I win. If not, it didn't count.)
Small states. This is a big country. Only big states matter in these United States.
Super delegates who vote in line with their state’s primary results.
Things that DO count:
States that officially don’t count. If my opponent was so naïve as to follow the rules and withdraw his name from the Michigan ballot, and to not campaign in Florida while I attended highly publicized “fund-raisers” the day before the primary, and a highly pre-announced “victory” celebration, he is not ready day-one to be President. Candidates ready to lead know that Presidents make their own rules (see: Current Administration).
States with a high percentage of Latino voters. They would never vote for me based just on the race of my opponent.
States with a high percentage of lower-income white voters. PLEASE no one tell them that my opponent grew up in a household to a single mom on food stamps, while I just loaned my campaign $5 million. It would cut into my base.
Blue states. We are going to win them anyway, so the Democrat who wins the primary doesn’t matter. (oops - I didn't mean to say that)
Big states. Except those where my opponent lives, or has ever lived.
Super delegates who vote in fear of my wrath should I win.
Now, doesn’t that make selecting our Nominee much simpler?
hillary=communism
In 1994, RODHAM set out to redesign the American health-care system and convened a panel that drafted its plan secretly-in violation of federal law...The plan prescribed some eye-popping maximum fines:
$5,000 for refusing to join the government-mandated health plan
$5,000 for failing to pay the premiums on time
15 years to doctors who received "anything of value" in exchange for helping patients short-circuit the bureaucracy
$10,000 a day for faulty physician paperwork
$50,000 for unauthorized patient treatment
$100,000 a day for drug companies that messed up federal filings
Texas should not vote for socialism.....hillary
Things look good for McCain
I think you may well be right, Michael. I have to admit that I was surprised at the size of Hillary's reported leads in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. Like you, I think that she may yet get up off the mat again like she did in New Hampshire. If she can win in both OH and PA and can manage to eek out a win in Texas too, then it's anybody's game once again.
This is all playing out perfectly for John McCain and the Republicans. The GOP has done the smart thing by ignoring the howling banshees on its far right wing and nominating the one candidate it has who can win over independents and conservative Democrats in the Fall.
If Hillary comes back and wins the nomination, many black voters are going to stay home in November to protest their party denying a black man a shot at the presidency. Hillary would be seen by many general election voters as a continuation of the divisive, hyper-partisan politics which has plagued Washington since 1992. Plus, almost half the country (47%) can't stand her to begin with and nothing would energize the much-ballyhooed "conservative base" like the prospect of another Clinton in the White House. I have to like McCain's chances in that matchup.
But if it's Obama, I think we're seeing evidence in Ohio and Pennsylvania of what I've suspected all along: No matter what they say to the pollsters and their neighbors, on Election Day when the curtain to the voting booth closes and they're all alone, many lower- and middle-class white Democrats are simply not going to be able to pull the lever for a black man as president. It's unfortunate, but it's also true, especially in the South. In addition, if the GOP can get voters to get past Obama's rock star/revivalist preacher appeal and take a look at his actual voting record in the U.S. Senate, many independents and moderate/conservative Democrats are going to decide that he's simply too liberal. Finally, a large number of Hispanics will also have trouble voting for a black man, and this could come into play in key states like California, Texas, and , most especially, Florida. For all these reasons, I also like McCain's chances against Obama over the long campaign.
Then there's the fact that while the GOP has now settled on its nominee early, the Dems could very well find themselves engaged in a knock-down, drag-out, cat fight that won't be decided until their convention, leaving whatever candidate that does emerge as the victor considerably weakened and the party divided.
All in all, it's good to be John McCain these days. :-)
OHIO Can Save America From the Clintons
OHIO is where Americans can drive a stake through the heart of HILLARY CLINTON and end the DEMON SEED'S bloodsucking on the American political system. The Clintons have a RASPUTIN kind of character, they will fight, claw and kill for their political survival. Hillary cannot be counted out until a stake is driven through her political heart metaphorically. But lest their be no doubt, America needs a colonic to detoxify itself of Clinton style politics so we can emerge refreshed and ready to meet the challenges our nation currently faces. OBAMA'S challenge will be to remain as vigilant and deliberate in his approach, to capitalize on the momentum, but not to gloat or alienate voters. This movement is like a wave building, HRC and her puppeteers are doing all that they can behind the scenes to knock down that wave. OHIOANS have a significant role to play in this year's Democratic process. It is my hope that OHIOANS look forward and not look backward, that they think about what is possible.
Being from Wisconsin originally, I see Clinton pulling a very close race there. If she can keep Madison close (Dane County), she will win else where in the state, with the exception of Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha areas (SE part of state) with the high concentration of the black population.
I believe it all hindges on Wisconsin for Clinton. Keep it close or split the delgates and she will be riding some momentum for Ohio and Texas. Lose by 7-10% and the press will keep on piling on her which will drive voter opinion for two weeks later. She will then be truly Texas Toast.
I feel Clinton can be the comback story of 2008!
Through Raoul's eyes
Raoul, the "Latino Voter" is a laughable fraud or just not very smart. Both of which is possible. At first, I thought fraud, because he spoke of Hillary's "core". Even the Clinton's friends have acknowledged they have no "core". Raoul speaks of Hillary's "Meaningful change" but cannot cite any. Raoul identifies some Obama legitimate donors as blemishes, but apparently illegitimate donors; Norman Hsaio, Charlie Trie, Marc Rich pardon money, FALN pardon money, selling of the Lincoln bedroom does not register.
Listen to Raouls reasons why Hillary should be President; "Meaningful change is concrete", "understands this to her very core", delivers the tools we need", "Hillary has been there for us", "join Hilary in her lifelong struggle to make solutions real and meaningful change possible.", "standing with Hilary to build the new coalition for change." I did not read one thing in there that she has ever done. You throw in her support of NAFTA and you could make the argument she harmed Maytag more than anyone.
Against conventional wisdom, I predict John McCain will wipe the floor with both of these unaccomplished do nothings, as I will vote for Obama in hopes we can put our bigoted past in the rear view mirror.
Experience
Most of Hillary Clinton's experience is as the spouse of the President. Does the wife of a firefighter claim to have experience putting out fires? Does the husband of a doctor claim to be qualified to treat the sick? Think about it. Would you hire me for your company if most of my resume was about my spouse's jobs? You would laugh at me.
My wife talks to me about her work, and I know a lot about it, and I often give her my opinion and advice, but I am not qualified to do her job.
Hillary Clinton's real experience is as a corporate attorney, as a board member for WalMart (a job she got because of her husband), and seven years as a senator. That’s roughly equivalent to Obama’s experience; one could actually argue that Obama has more experience because he also served in the Illinois senate.
Plus, the one thing she was entrusted with in the white house--health care reform--was a miserable failure, and she deserves at least part of the blame for that.
Laughable Experience
I about fall off my chair laughing when people mention "Hillary's experience". C'mon, folks... get real. On the other hand, I need a good laugh now and then. About the only one with less experience than Clinton is Obama.
Is Hillary Due For A Comeback?
I have to laugh whenever Democrats mention "protecting Social Security". The Dems have been the biggest roadblock to Social Security reform for decades, their only solution being to increase taxes to cover the increase costs that are coming up soon. We really need to look at France, Germany, and other European countries that are approaching bankruptcy because of their social entitlement programs, learn from their mistakes, and take action ASAP. One of the steps we should take is get rid of the Democrats like Hillary (and Obama) who are proposing even MORE government entitlements.
Hillary Due for a Comeback?
Library of Congress records:Clinton, served only one full term( 6 yrs) and another year campaigning, has authored and passed 20 twenty pieces of legislation in her term of six years into law. 1 Establish Kate Mullany National Historic Site. 2 Support goals and ideals of Better Hearing and Speech Month.3 Recognize Ellis Island Medal of Honor. 4 Name courthouse after Thurgood Marshall 5 Name courthouse after James L. Watson. 6 Name post office after Jonn A. O'Shea.7 Designate Aug. 7, 2003, as National Purple Heart Recognition Day. 8 Support goals and ideals of National Purple Heart Recognition Day. 9 Honor life and legacy of Alexander Hamilton on the bicentennial of his death.10 Congratulate Syracuse Univ. Orange Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship. 11 Congratulate Moyne College Dolphins Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship. 12 Establish 225th Anniversary of the American Revolution Commemorative Program.13 Name post office after Sergeant Riayan A. Tejeda. 14 Honor Shirley Chisholm for her service to the nation. 15 Honor John J. Downing, Brian Fahey, and Harry Ford, firefighters who lost their lives on duty. Only five of Clinton's bills are, more substantive. 16 Extend period of unemployment assistance to victims of 9/11. 17 Pay for city projects in response to 9/11 18 Assist landmine victims in other countries.19 Assist family caregivers in accessing affordable respite care.20 Designate part of the National Forest System in Puerto Rico as protected.
Hiilary Due for a comeback?
Library of Congress Records…….check it out yourself.
Obama's list: (first 8 months) is too substantive, one is coalesced to categorize.
sponsored over 820 bills.
introduced 233 bills regarding healthcare reform,
125 bills on poverty and public assistance,
112 bills on crime fighting,
97 economic bills,
60 human rights and anti-discrimination bills,
21 ethics reform bills,
15 gun control,
6 veterans affairs and many others.
In his first year in the U.S. Senate, he authored 152 bills and co-sponsored another 427. These included:
(1)the Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006 that became LAW,
(2)The Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act that became LAW, (3)The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act that passed the Senate,
(4)The 2007 Government Ethics Bill that became LAW,
(5)The Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill that is in committee just to name a few.
In all since he entered the U.S. Senate, Senator Obama has written 890 bills and co-sponsored another 1096.
Empty suit.
Obama is an empty suit.
The closer we get to November, the more obvious that will be. He's a cult, not a candidate. Cults are scary.
Remember The Alamo
For Democrats, the March 4th hybrid primary-caucus in Texas produces 126 delegates chosen at the ballot box and 42 at-large delegates chosen through thousands of precinct caucuses. An additional 25 pledged delegates are selected at the state convention in June with the remaining 35 designated as super delegates for a total of 228 Texas Democrat delegates. The Texas firewall that Hillary is depending upon may not be possible due to the issue of proportionality. The 31 Texas senate districts are allocated delegates based upon several factors including the district's voter participation in the 2004/2006 presidential and gubernatorial elections; this may work against Hillary because certain Hispanic districts recorded lower voter turnout in those years than did some urban centers. If Dallas, Tarrant, and Harris counties support Obama, this will likely dillute the Hispanic influence statewide and Hillary could be in real trouble after everthing is said and done. Austin will likely go with Obama in my opinion. Remember, the proportionality equation in Texas makes it unlikely that either candidate will have a crushing delegate win or defeat come March 4th. Hillary is hopeful that a Texas firewall will save hercampaign; please forgive my hyperbole, but I suspect it may be her Alamo. Regardless, the candidates will split the Texas delegates so do not look for Texas to save the night for Clinton. Beginning at 7:15 p.m. after the polls close on March 4th, the Texas caucuses will then choose a candidate at the precinct level. Yes, you read that correctly. You get to legally vote twice in one day if you follow the rules. This could spell more bad news for candidate Clinton if Obama's pattern of caucus wins repeats in Texas. All in all Texas will be most interesting to watch. I know I'll be closely watching this hybrid primary/caucus because of its uniqueness and significance.
Hillary Believes in Working People
If working people want a voice in this Presidency, the clear choice is Hillary Clinton. Think about it. Who came out first with an infrastructure and jobs plan? Hillary Clinton. Who has been talking first and foremost about the economy from day one of this campaign? Hillary Clinton.
Now think about this. Who has been largely supported by affluent high earning voters in this campaign? Barack Obama. The latte liberal types have been keeping his campaign alive. The reason why he has so much money is because these types of people - who have money to burn - have been sending it to him. Whose interests do you think he is going to protect the most?
Hillary has been blessed with the generous support of over 10 million in donations since Super Tuesday. Read her website. Look at the people who are sacrificing and giving to her. Hard working people who really have to be dedicated, who really have to dig deep to help her with money. And they are doing it. Because they know that she needs them, and she will stand for them if she is elected.
It is good that this campaign is finally becoming a campaign about class. Forget race and sex at this point - it is all about who is upper class and who is working class. That's the kind of campaign that matters. Really gets at the heart of the issue. Hillary has known this from the start. Stick with her through the tough times. She's got your back, so do the same for her.
Obama Comes Back Down To Earth
The media love to ride the pendulum. The "Hillary Surge" will be a great news story and give the pundits something to ramble about, just as the "Obama Avalanche" has. She is going to win those 3 states, and OH and PA by large double-digits.
The headline the next day will be "How Obama Lost His Mojo". Hillary will claw back to +5 or 6 in the national polls and close out the primary season by winning any state that is not in the Deep South and not a caucus. Obama will look more inexperienced than ever. They will say that big state voters went with substance over style, sage savvy over buzz marketing. Obama will suddenly look like a fanciful mirage, a precocious child playing Presidential Candidate.
That will fade in a week or two as well, but by then the campaign is over.
This will put her nearly even in pledged delegates and ahead in total votes cast including Florida. Her campaign will toss in the Michigan numbers as well to make it look like she gets several hundred thousand more votes. They will market that legitimacy to the SuperDelegates with moderate success and close any remaining gap. They will likely seat Florida, but not Michigan. Obama was not on the ballot there. The Clintons will add that likely number into their delegate estimates to build legitimacy.
I am not saying she will win at the Convention, but this is where it will get decided. Smoke-filled rooms. Get ready for it.
The media will take us all on a roller coaster before this is over. It is not over by a long shot.
Bill Richardson To The Rescue...
Look for VP whispers...
If HRC floats Bill Richardson, look for Texas Hispanics to give her a 15 point win...and possibly the nomination.
That would be a master-stroke. He is in her top 3 anyway...
If he endorses and stumps in Texas, you know why.
Sorry to say but...
Obama wins Wisconsin and Hawaii. HRC wins Texas narrowly (3-4 points) then wins Ohio by 6 points. Pennsylvania is close as well with HRC winning by 3 points.
She doesn't have enough delegates to overcome Obama but with three wins in three big states she forces the DNC to seat Michigan and Florida (make every vote count), and she is suddenly close enough to argue that the superdelegates need to back her.
End result, she forces Obama into her VP slot (the only option she would have if she brikers a deal to get the super delegates), and she steals the nomination. This engenders so much anger and animosity from within the party and among those who are so passionate about Obama, that many ofthem decide to sit out the November election which then favors McCain who has just enough conservative support to win a very narrow election.
Experience? HA!
All I keep hearing is that the reason Clinton is better suited to be president is because she has experience and accomplishments.
WHAT EXPERIENCES? WHAT ACCOMPLISHMENTS? Being the wife to a president is not the experience to run the country. I'd like to hear all of you people who keep touting her as "experienced" to explain that. You surely will not be able to. She has no experience. Being in Washington diddling around with scandals and whatnot for 20 years is not experience. Sorry,
As Dennis Miller said "She's been cheated on more than a blind woman playing scrabble with a bunch of gypsies." If you call that experience, good luck!
Barone is the bomb!
Michael Barone is the best analyst in the business. I am a republican from VA and I went to the polls and voted for Hillary. Although it did no good in my state, I urge Texan repuplicans to do the same. Since elections are a game of strategy, I think a Hillary presidency will be the lesser of the two democratic candidates. Obama lacks substance and, in my opinion, you can't make that up with feel good words. I will of course be voting for McCain in November even though I disagree with him on many issues. Don't forget, it is a game of strategy.
Kickin' Butt in Texas...
In Texas, we can't be fooled by an all Hat and NO Cattle candidate. We had one of the greatest gals ever run our state, and that was Ann Richards, who would probably be all over this thing with the superdelegates and all. Nope. Obama doesn't cut it when it comes to understanding the average Americans issues and most of us down her know it. Hillary is likely to kick Obama's butt up and down this state. YeeHa!
Obama's Global Poverty Act selling US down the river
Once the word gets out on Obama's sponsored Global Poverty Act people will have to question Obama's intentions to really help our own country. According to Glenn Beck's site, that is committing the US to a percentage of our GNP, and amounts to over 800 billion dollars we trun over to the UN to distribute to everyone but US! I like contributing to poverty; I don't like paying a global tax and losing control over our money. The Obama sponsored act passed the House already, Beck says because noone read it.
Don't VOTE FOR THEM!
If you want more entitlement programs, socialized healthcare and judges who don't interpret the law, but make up the law then vote for Hillary or Obama. Bigger government is what leads to the downfall of most civilizations.
Is Hillary Due for a Comeback?
I hope anyone's vote is based on how well the candidate's thinking matches one's own political position. Unfortunately it seems Obama is getting the black vote because, well, he is black. This is similar to how most Greeks voted for Dukakis.
Ethnic, race centric voting is not constructive in a civic society.
To offer a counter balance a good percentage of democrats (such as myself) may cross the line over to McCain if Obama is the nominee. In their zeal the black community may find itself isolated from the political discourse.
I have to agree with Peter Cannady, Hillary has nowehere to go but down. Her basic problem is that people just don't like her (with good reason). She can fire every one of her campaign staff and that wouldn't change her likeability. What is is. :-)
How else could you explain the fact that starting with a 20 point lead in the polls, she is now behind a junior senator with practically no experience in delegate count.
I would not take the polls from Texas seriously at this point. People know Hillary, she has name recognition. Once Obama introduces himself to the voting public, his numbers will go way up. The Rasmussen poll showing a +17 lead for Hillary is a fiction. Other polls show Hillary +7 or so and the newest one (ARG) shows Obama up by +6. Hillary has reached her ceiling.
Face it, most people don't want to go back to the Clinton years in the 90's with one scandal after the next and special prosecutors as far as the eyes can see. The Clintons are the most divisive politicians in my lifetime (by far) and we would all benefit from the day that they retire to the private sector. Good riddance.
Where's the beef for us - amigos?
I would love to see anyone of Latin ethnicity tell me what it is he or she thinks Hillary has actually done for our people? Even now she is running down NAFTA, the single most important thing from the first Clinton term which significantly raised Mexican standards of living. What were her votes in the Senate that helped us? (Are you telling me she voted for amnesty for Chicanos? So did McCain and Obama).
Furthermore, what is this "experience" she continues to claim? What has she ever run effectively? She is simply the wife of an ex-president, nothing more, and by this logic, Laura Bush is just as qualified because she too will have 8 years in that position.
Amigos, if we are stupid enough to elect someone simply because she is female we will deserve the chaos we get. I know, a vote for Hillary is really for Bill's (perhaps unconstitutional) 3rd term, so that's what's really going on here? Hillary's first month in office would be enough to show us all how utterly inept she is - and then Bill would be running things behind the scenes. Obama is equally dangerous, with no experience beyond the Chicago wards and Harvard Law, but he does not have the very questionable past of these Clintons. Stop supporting the mafia candidates, they don't give a rip about us and never will. Mexicanos to them are nothing more than hired help - look how Hillary dumped Patti Solís despite her long loyalty, without so much as a thank you.
Wake up, my people. If we really cared about our futures in the USA, we would elect the person who will keep the economy strongest and that's (unfortunately for some) the Republican, McCain. Because Hillary and Obama both promise to significantly raise taxes, and if you think about it a little, you will know how that will hurt many small business people (many of us right here in CA) and then who will lose their jobs? Hmm?
Stop believing the sweet sounding siren songs from Democrats - they only promise us a world of hurt in the end. I know, they will try to blame everything on Bush, but either way you'll be on the street and it will be cold comfort.
Not so fast, people
Not that many black people here in WA, but Obama won 2-to-1 when I thought it'd be a tossup. His reach is much broader than 'the black vote.' I know GOP voters first-hand who caucused here for Obama. TX is not WA, but don't assume younger GOP voters in TX will vote Hillary just to mess with Dems. Some really prefer Obama to McCain.
Hillary's Southwest Red State Advantage
PaulC of CA,
I'm not sure what you mean by "As a Red State, Texas may be Hillary's undoing" since Hillary does very well in the Border Southwestern Red States. Hello! She won Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee by huge margins--all Red States that are, incidentally, more similar to Texas politically than the Deep South Red States. Texas is much more Hillary-leaning than Obama-leaning. She is very likely to win Texas.
The 'Obama is winning only becuase of the Amercian Black Vote' arguement is Rubbish
I think this article and other articles that are reminisent of this notion is pure rubbish. This is the same senseless arguement about Barack Obama leading Clinton with the American Black votes. In the event that no ones is paying attention. YOU CANNOT WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION MUCH LESS THE GENERAL ELECTION BY WINNING JUST ONE MINORITY GROUP. Contrary to popular opinion Barack Obama would not have been in the lead unless he had won across the broad spectrum. Unlike the Clinton campaign that is constantly talking about winning, based on the Hispanic vote. Am I the only one who notices that there is more to America than, CA,NY,TX, AZ,and the other states that have a large hispanic population. My comments are not intended to disparage the Hispanic vote, but just to shed light on the subject. I believe that same assumption made about Obama is more descriptive of the Clinton campaign only the minority vote here is the white women vote and Obama is cutting into that too. Let's dump the identity politics and judge the candidates for what they have brought to the political platform in this Presidential Primaries.
Hillary's Testimony in Paul v Clinton
On Thursday, Feb 21, a hearing will be held in Los Angeles setting a trial date and discovery schedule for the landmark civil fraud suit Paul v Clinton et al pending in California Superior Court. Judge Munoz todl David Kendall that Sen. Clinton will be testifying as a material witness in the trial of her husband Bill Clinton for destroying the public company of the man the Clinton's hoodwinked to become Hillary's largest donor in 2000. Hillary's efforts to hide the illegalities she engaged in to obtain more than $1.2 million from her husband's erstwhile business partner Peter Paul has resulted in a cover-up that will be exposed in court as larger than Watergate.see www.hillcap.org and the internet sensation documentary Hillary! Uncensored at www.equaljusticeproductions.com
Clinton/Obama Ticket???
There is no way there will be an Clinton/Obama ticket, so everyone might as well forget about it. The reason is that Obama wouldn't do it. Wouldn't do it because with Bill Clinton around, he'd be like Vice-Vice President. He also wouldn't do it because Obama wants to bring new blood to the beltway, and being together with Clinton would go against everything he's stood for in his campaign. He doesn't want to be part of "more of the same." Not to mention that being tied to Bill Clinton is what Al Gore believes cost him the election in 2000. (Word is that Gore doesn't speak to the Clintons anymore because of it.) Being tied to the Clintons would likely hamstring Obama in the future. Oh, and finally, the Clintons have now demonstrated a few times that they aren't really "black," but that they do whatever it takes to get votes. After the rhetoric in South Carolina, that's pretty clear. The Clintons would destroy the Democratic coalition that's been around for a long time just for potential personal political gain.
Obamamania is a dangerous mind set. Pretty speeches and idealism is what got us George Bush. He was so idealistic and so likeable. Our country is in a mess and we need a competent person who knows the issues and has solutions for those issues. This is Hillary Clinton. I hope Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio give her big wins. I hear people say they don't know whether to vote with their heart or their head--please with the problems we're facing if anyone votes with their heart, they should take their voting card away. This is a serious time, not a pep rally.
Hillary v Barak: Character is key
Its character, stupid! All the stated policies in the world wont compensate for lack of ethics and scruples in our Commander in Chief. Policies change based on political exigencies, but character remains unassailed. Hillary's career has shown an absence of character and a contempt for the Rukle of Law- Barak has made every effort to appear to have character and respect for the law- something that Hillary's hubris never demanded of her. The home videos iof Hillary's true persona reflected in the first documentary on Hillary, Hillary Uncensored show she is unfit for command
WRONG CHANGE
The problem right now is that people are following Obama blindly... if only they listened impartially they would realize that the change he is promising may be a CHANGE FOR THE WORSE... I am a firm believer that the devil you know is better that the one you don't... I hope people wake up from the Obama trance and come to their senses, if they don't McCain is going to WIN!!!
Educated young voter
One thing I can't stand is how they portray educated voters as for Obama. I am a very educated young voter when does my voice get heard that I am for Hillary because she is educated and knows what can help young people like myself. She is the only one speaking loud about college funding help from the government. Freezes on interest rates for college loans. Did these educated voters that the media speaks about go to college and have to pay loans? As an educated voter I want to see the work that someone is going to do to help me pay for school. If I want someone to preach to me or sing a hymn I will go to church. I can't stand turning on the television and seeing preacher man Barack sing to us about fairy tales.
I am still waiting for you kool aid drinking Hillary fans to back up this claim about her experience. What exactly is she experienced at? A lawyer? First lady of Ark?, First lady of USA? Senator for 7 years? I get the Senate experience, but please name her Senatorial claim to fame? No legislation and backtracking on the biggest vote in the last 50 year (Iraq). Oh...lets not even get into the fact that she is a nasty person. I will take Obama (same policies, a few less years in the Senate, and he seems like a good guy.)
Barak
I am still waiting for you kool aid drinking Hillary fans to back up this claim about her experience. What exactly is she experienced at? A lawyer? First lady of Ark?, First lady of USA? Senator for 7 years? I get the Senate experience, but please name her Senatorial claim to fame? No legislation and backtracking on the biggest vote in the last 50 year (Iraq). Oh...lets not even get into the fact that she is a nasty person. I will take Obama (same policies, a few less years in the Senate, and he seems like a good guy.)
Obama Wins Texas
All Texans over 40 grew up voting in the Democratic Primary then voting for the Republican in the general election. Look for an Obama win on huge turnout - many Republicans crossing over - in the primary. Then McCain carries the state in a landslide in November.
I was at Hillary's rally in Corpus Christi Wednes
Texas Polls Now available
There are Texas polls now, clustering with Clinton at +7, well within the reach of the so-called "Keith Number."
There are many reasons why even a 7pt margin in Texas might not be big enough for Hillary to win enough delegates to make March 4th a big day for her.
And Obama has another month to introduce himself and his impressive ground game in Pennsylvania.
As a Red State, Texas may be Hillary's undoing.
Feb 15, 2008 15:21:53 PM [permalink] [report comment]