Are Tightening Polls a Sign of a John McCain Surge?
The tracking polls seem to show the presidential race tightening. Rasmussen numbers released this morning show Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by only 50 percent to 47 percent—the narrowest margin in Rasmussen polls for more than a month and the first time McCain has been over 46 percent since September 24 (nine days after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and two days before the first debate). Gallup's tracking released yesterday showed McCain behind by only 49 percent to 47 percent on its traditional-turnout model but behind by a much larger 51 percent to 44 percent on its expanded model.
John Zogby's numbers yesterday showed a 49 percent-to-44 percent margin for Obama, considerably smaller than the one he had a few days earlier.
Against these numbers one must weigh polls in battleground states showing Obama doing just about as well as he has been since the financial crisis hit in mid-September. And the respected Pew Research poll shows Obama out in front by a whopping 53 percent to 39 percent. I'm reluctant to dismiss Pew as an outlier, but if you do, the realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls looks like Obama 49.6 percent, McCain 44.8 percent, a margin of 4.8 percentage points—the smallest Obama margin in RCP averages since September 30.
This sounds plausible to me. Hypothesis: The McCain "Joe the Plumber" high-taxes issue is having some impact. So are doubts, kindled by a typically verbose Joe Biden comment, about how Obama would handle an international crisis. Is this the beginning of a McCain surge? Possibly. It's beginning to look like something more than statistical noise. But it's hard to be sure at this point.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain | polls | campaign strategy
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Reader Comments
Toast
Toast is good to eat. Also i think that mccain didn't really have a chance with the whole of the black population on obamas side
Winds of Change
The winds of change are blowing. The smell of a democratic win is in the air. I read the views of Republican supporters but what they don't understand is that the majority of the world do not want to see another Bush wanna be in the office. The American people are great but the politics need fixing. A democratic win can only help the relations internationally
Too little to late
Obama is an osmosis candidate, nothing there, nothing done, but in the right place at the right time, and like melting jello, is pouring through the cracks of a wall of circumstance to a victory pudle of meaningless muck. You have to give him credit though, he put himself in the running and has had the luck of the almighty behind him.
Mccaine could have eaten him alive. Running for president is a test of character, and frankly, he has fallen short in his message and effort. But give him credit, he is older, and has less energy. The effort he gave would have killed others his age. Maybe it was all he could give to the effort.
I wish I could say we learned being lucky is better than being good. But in this case there is only lucky as Mccaine's effort was not good.
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