Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Opinion

Michael Barone

McCain and Palin Surge Into the Lead

September 08, 2008 02:59 PM ET | Michael Barone | Permanent Link | Print

The USAToday/Gallup poll shows McCain ahead 54 percent to 44 percent among likely voters and 50 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. This poll arbitrarily excludes a certain percentage of LVs from the category of RVs depending on their response to a series of questions. In practice, its LV results have been far more volatile than other polls. But for that reason, it is one of the better measures we have for voter enthusiasm and therefore, perhaps, for turnout. During most of this year, Democrats have been more enthusiastic than Republicans. This poll suggests that the Sarah Palin/John McCain convention has narrowed or eliminated the enthusiasm gap.

Just about every poll released today shows a McCain surge. The Rasmussen track shows McCain up 48 percent to 47 percent, compared with 48 to 48 yesterday. The Gallup track shows McCain ahead 49 to 44, up from 48 to 45 yesterday. The Diageo/Hotline track showed a 44-to-44 tie, compared with a 6 percent lead for Obama in its most recent report. We haven't seen much in the way of state results yet, except that Anchorage-based Ivan Moore, who polls for Democrats but has worked for Republicans in the past, shows McCain-Palin way ahead, 54 percent to 35 percent, in Alaska, where his previous poll showed Obama trailing McCain by only 2.5 percent. "Obama had a real shot to score an upset in Alaska," the Britain-born Moore writes, "but that opportunity is categorically gone."

Bottom line: Obama was a little ahead going into the conventions. McCain is a little ahead coming out of the conventions. On to the debates!

Tags: presidential election 2008 | John McCain | polls | Sarah Palin

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Reader Comments

GOP

MCCAIN/PALIN TICKET IS DANGEROUS,,SHE PREDICTS WAR W/RUSSIA & HE WILL REINSTATE THE DRAFT ....HE HAS DEMENTIA ALSO....

hillary switcharoo? not a chance.

it's looking hopeless for him already if you figure in the "bradley effect". Figure in that Hillary's support by independents pales to Palin's, the likelihood for Americans to resort to fresh faces over lukewarm establishment types ( Bush vs Gore 2000 ) and the fact that such a change from Biden to Hillary would stink to heaven almighty of deep dark despairation, it would do much much more harm than good.

besides. can you imagine Obama would be practically castrated if he had to have Hillary on the ticket to win? She's a smart cookie and would seriously demand such control over his campaign to join it that you may as well have Hillary at the top of the ticket.

Palin, nevertheless, would annihilate Hillary in the debates, as McCain will do to Obama.

This election isn't in the bag by any means. But at least the left are starting to realize this IS GODs country, and their godless arses aren't the only opinion that matters and never will be.

Presidential election 2008

To Whom It May Concern:

As an independent voter, I am certain the McCain-Palin ticket is the best choice for America. We will certtainly get the reform necessary and it will be a bi-partisian ticket that will bring the best of both parties together. In addition, We will have a fresh face in Washington who has already proven herself as a Governor who reaches across party line and has been extremely successful in Alaska.

Nobody will every agree on every single issue. I do not believe you can choose a president based on every single issue. In life, you sometimes have to compromise with people in order to receive. I do believe the McCain-Palin ticket will improve our economy and give Americans a different outlook on government. I think they will be an excellent team.

I also believe they balance each other well.

Having said all that, on a less significant point, I believe John McCain has paid his dues in many ways and proven his trust as a great American Hero and a Senator who has worked with democrats on many issues to solve diverse problems we face. He is certainly his own man and Governor Palin is her own woman.

Sincerely,

Patricia Ryan

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Michael Barone is a senior writer for U.S.News & World Report and principal coauthor of The Almanac of American Politics. He has written for many publications—including the Economist and the New York Times.

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