Demographic Trends Could Make It Harder for Obama and Democrats

Shift South and West

Certainly people are leaving the Mid West (centered on Illinois) and the North East in droves for greener pastures to the South and Mountain West. The number one reason for this trend is economic rather then idealistic. People leave New York because taxes are too high, specifically corporate taxes. Companies are moving down south to take advantage of tax breaks (a great example is my father’s firm leave Buffalo New York for Charleston South Carolina) and frankly people are following the job market.

The bottom line is that people move with their own political ideology and will undoubtedly change the political landscape of their destination, but, the political landscape of their destination (read the South or Mountain West) effects them as well (that is to say a more conservative or libertarian culture). These states have a history of small government and keeping out of people’s pocket books and lives, and while people may leave blue areas, entering areas that are redder may cause a subtle political shift for them as well the state.

It is not hard to understand why this would occur. A solidly union man from New York, leaving the state due to a high cost of living and bloated bureaucracy (it take takes 3 years before a social security claim is even heard before a court due to red tape and backlogs) looks with envy at a state with no or little state income tax and an anemic state bureaucracy. Certainly the relative success of these small government Southern and Mountain West States have an appeal, both economically and to a lesser degree ideologically to a North Easterner or Mid Westerner living in a state with high taxes, no jobs, and a corrupt and dysfunctional Bureaucracy.

The major takeaway is that states like Texas, Utah, and South Carolina are most likely to stay solidly GOP for sometime, while states like California, New York, Mass, and Illinois will stay in the Blue column. Most of the other states slated to gain or lose are either "swing states" or at least purple enough that counting them a guarantee for one party or the other for the next decade or two may be a bit much. The bottom line is a more modest GOP gain (which can easily be squandered if the party doesn’t adapt to a changing political landscape).

Joe has the right question

I did a research paper this past semester, that focused on this very thing. And not only is this true for the 2004 election, but had the 2000 election having operated under the 1990 census been operating under the 1980 census, Al Gore would have won. 2000 was pivotal momement for Republicans. This ebb and flow is constantly in motion. The overall rise in the Sunbelt is really happening in the Southwest. The more solid Republican old Confederacy is sustaining in numbers. The Northeast and Midwest are being stripped of precious electoral votes. Take a look at a map of Union Shop versus Right to Work states, and the landscape will be much more clear.

Re: Californication

Did you know that California is the fifth largest economy in the WORLD? Yeah. Let's "give [California] back to Mexico and build a fence."

Real smart.

2010 Apportionment

The Connectiuct State Data Center (CtSDC) released two reports last year on the topic of 2010 apportionment. The first report "Impact of Undocumented Populations on 2010 Congressional Reapportionment" released in September illustrates what would happen if the illegal/undocumented population were excluded from the apportionment count. Interestingly, Republican leaning States such as Arizona, Texas, and Florida all gain seats due to the undocumented population - very ironic. The second report "The One-Man One-Vote Myth: The Impact of Non-Voting Populations on Congressional Apportionment" released in December illustrates how reapportionment would be impacted if only voters were the basis for apportionment. Both reports can be downloaded at:

http://ctsdc.uconn.edu/CtSDC_reports.html

Demographic Trends and Democrats

People and jobs have tended to migrate toward Right-to-Work states where unions have less influence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Right_to_work.svg

States that support actual growth with relatively low taxes and good transportation and energy infrastructure tend to grow rapidly while states that throw up enough obstacles don't grow very fast. I hope both sides are getting what they really want.

In 2006 Democrats did an excellent job of recruiting somewhat moderate congressional candidates to run in states that tend to elect Republicans and won control. On the other hand, the Democrats seem to have more difficulty moving legislation through congress that Republicans did with similar slim majorities. The political center of gravity appears to be a little right of center despite recent wins by Democrats.

Reapportionment

Don't we just reapportion once a decade? I'm pretty sure none of this matters until the 2012 election...

Texas Thoughts

Due to the strength of our state's economy and lower cost of living we have seen an influx of Californians moving into my area of Central Texas that has long had a repuation for being one of the most conservative areas in the state. I figured to see a political change but in talking to my new neighbors I am finding that most (maybe all?) of them are even more conservative than I am. I am wondering if maybe places with a rep for law & order and conservatism are going to attract conservatives from other states, thus making some places more red and leaving some more blue.

First poster has it right

It's not whether FORMERLY Republican states gain seats and electors. It's whether some of them go from red to blue, which is entirely likely in several places.

Why people move to more Republican states

The more important issue is why people end up moving to more Republican-friendly states. It could be that Republican-friendly states make laws that are more friendly to the local economies and are less worried about their flora and fauna and trial lawyers. California's politicians don't believe in coal, oil, or nuclear energy production. So, gas and electricity cost more there. Health care costs more there because trial lawyers are coddled.

Californication

Californication is happening all over out west. We need to give the state back to Mexico and build a fence.