Latest Presidential Polls Show a New List of Target States for Obama and McCain
The presidential race seems to be tightening, at least according to the two tracking polls. The Rasmussen tracking poll showed Barack Obama in a statistical tie with John McCain last weekend; the latest numbers show Obama ahead 47 percent to 44 percent. Here is Scott Rasmussen's nut paragraph:
A review of Rasmussen Reports full week tracking confirms the slight tightening of the race. Seven-day tracking shows less volatility than three-day tracking and is based upon interviews with 7,000 Likely Voters each week. For the first five weeks after clinching the Democratic nomination, Obama led McCain 49 percent to 44 percent in every week but one. The sole exception found Obama ahead 49 percent to 43 percent. However, for the seven days ending July 13, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 45 percent.
The Gallup tracking poll has Obama up 46 percent to 43 percent—almost precisely the same numbers as Rasmussen. The most recent week shows Obama up 46 percent to 43 percent; the week before, Obama was up 47 percent to 43 percent.
It is conventional wisdom that candidates improve their standing by moving to the center, as Obama has done on myriad issues in the past two weeks (for a pungent summary, see Charles Krauthammer's July 4 column). But Obama's movement undermines one of the central premises of his candidacy, that he is not a Washington-style politician, just as his 20-year embrace of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright undermined another central premise, that he is one who seeks to transcend racial barriers. In any case, Obama may have slipped a bit and does not seem to be making significant gains by "refining" his positions.
How could that affect the standings in the 50 states? I took a look at all June and July polls (except for the Zogby Interactive polls, which I'm dubious about) as compiled in www.pollster.com (there were no polls in Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Idaho, Maryland, Vermont, and Wyoming, and I couldn't access the polls for Mississippi, but we don't have any doubts where those 36 electoral votes are going). Those polls (and my inclusion of Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Maryland, and Vermont) show Obama leading n 26 states and D.C. with 320 electoral votes, and McCain leading (or, in the case of North Dakota, tied) in 24 states with 218 electoral votes.
Some of the results are very much out of line with the results in 2000 and 2004. Obama is carrying New York and New England by double digits, and he has a 20-point lead in California, as well as double-digit leads in Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, and Wisconsin. He has much narrower leads in the three polls conducted in Colorado, the one conducted in Indiana, the one conducted in Montana, and the three conducted in Virginia, all of which were carried by George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.
McCain is ahead by double digits in Utah (and probably would be in Idaho and Wyoming, if there were any polls there), Nebraska, and several southern states—Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.
Most of these polls were conducted in June, when Obama was faring marginally better than he is at present in the two tracking polls. If one assumes McCain is running a little stronger now, in which states would he be overtaking Obama, assuming a uniform rise across the country? In the South, Virginia (13 electoral votes). In the West, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, and Oregon (24 electoral votes). In the Midwest, Indiana and Ohio (31 electoral votes). In the East, probably nowhere: He trails in June-July polls by 8 percent in Pennsylvania and 9 percent in New Jersey (36 electoral votes). Leaving aside the East, these 68 electoral votes added to his current 218 would give him 286 electoral votes, the number George W. Bush won in 2004.
Conclusion: This has the potential to be a furiously contested race. And on unfamiliar turf. The only 2000 and 2004 target states in the list above were New Mexico and Ohio. The others—Virginia, Colorado, Montana, Oregon, and Indiana—either were not on anybody's target list in 2004 or dropped off one candidate's target list pretty early in the season.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain | polls | Rasmussen Report | Gallup
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This is a test of the American people 2
Wayne of ca, there are somethings that i agree with you, ill be level headed here but from your views of " testing americans" i think that you should test your self and really think about what your voting for and what your saying. you say OF COURSE we need to get out of Iraq and im sure everyone would agree with you, we want our boys back and safe. but what would happen if we never went over there how many more attacks would there have been? war is never a good thing but its needed to keep our country safe and free. we have always had wars well before you were alive and will be well after your gone. War is a part of life. you say its coastin so much well if clinton didnt do away with most of our military then we wouldnt have to keep refunding it to keep it where any true american agrees it should be at. then you say OF COURSE middle classes need tax break well your right times are hard were all feeling it but put some one like obama in there and you will see it become harder for the middle class because the old sayin is dont F with the rich, there not going to change there life style they will find ways to not get hit hard, and lets just talk about the rich well wouldnt a good percent of them be business owners? Well if there getting hit harder then normal because of obamas ideas on taxation, they will just cut some of there spending which could be ur pay check there will be more lay offs and there will be businesses closing and people with the money will either sell what they have of go in to early retirement. I think the true question is who do you trust? some one thats fought for your country and risked his life in war and that will get the job done and is a ture full blooded american. or some one that barley did anything for the U.S. couldnt yes or no for anything only voted present until his name was on ballot. Nor would wear the american flag pin for a great lenght of time or put his hand over his heart for our flag. i can go on for over and you can to you have ur views ill have mine just know what every they say and promise alot of things but does that really mean its going to happen look at the past promises and plans have gone through. they are going to tell you what you wanna hear and really hardly do half of what they say they will. So the real question who is the true american and who can you trust
I want my country back.
I'll be glad to see Bush go. It's hard to look at all our failures during his administration. We had a budget surplus when he took office. We had a bright future only to trade it in for stupidity and ignorance. We had peace and prosperity only to give it up for war and out of control debt. Most people in the world wished they were American. They saw us as proud people not afraid to face the tough challenges with fairness and hope but are now looking at us like we're a sad sack of gun-toting, god-fearing paranoid schizophrenic spoiled brats who got what was coming to them for voting for this mental case Bush not once..but twice!
What happened to freedom over security (give me liberty or give me death)? Why war in Iraq? Where's Bin Laden? 7 years now. Why hasn't he been killed or captured? Why aren't we better off now than we were 8 years ago? What happened to us?
Politicians can only do so much to help us get out of this mess we're in. We need to help ourselves. Give someone new a chance. Vote for Obama and take back our country.
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