Can Clinton Win the Popular Vote?
Back on March 28, I posted some projections of the popular vote in the remaining contests, projections based on optimistic assumptions from the point of view of Hillary Clinton's campaign, to see if it was possible she could win a plurality of the vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses. My projections said she could, if she won certain percentages of the two-candidate vote in these states.
How's she doing? She's running short of what she needs. The following table shows her percentage of the two-candidate vote in the latest RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana, and the percentages I projected for her in each of those states.
| State | Current Polls | My Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 54 | 60 |
| North Carolina | 42 | 45 |
| Indiana | 53 | 60 |
There is one polling firm, however, that shows results close to those projections, SurveyUSA. So I've added their numbers to the table:
| State | Current Polls | My Projection | SurveyUSA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 54 | 60 | 60 |
| North Carolina | 42 | 45 | 44 |
| Indiana | 53 | 60 | 59 |
Is SurveyUSA right? I don't know, but I'm sure Hillary Clinton hopes so.
Let me remind you of what happens after the last primaries June 3 if my projections prove to be right. Barack Obama will be leading in pledged delegates, those elected in primaries and caucuses. Clinton will be leading in popular votes. Obama's delegate lead will be entirely due to his victories in caucus states. Clinton's popular vote lead will be entirely due to her projected victory in the Puerto Rico primary. Who then is entitled to the nomination? You could easily think up plausible arguments for either side. This would be a nightmare for the superdelegates who will have to make the decision.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Hillary Clinton | polls
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Reader Comments
Clinton still can win
when the people figure out what Obama is about, it might be to late.
Wise up people.
MONICA LEWINSKY
BILL CLINTON IS SUPPORTING OBAMA IN THE CLOSET.
MORE THAN ONE THIRD OF UNPLEDGED SUPERDELEGATES ARE SUPPORTING OBAMA SILENTLY, SECRETLY.
Hillary LIE about the pregnant woman in Ohio and she got away with it.
She LIE about the sniper dodging the bullet in Bosnia trip.
LIE about the NAFTA when Bill got a million dollars from Colombians.
LIE about the LIE.
She LIE; innocent voters fall right into her trap machine.
VOTE ANYONE BUT NOT HILLARY.
Definition of Winning the Popular Vote
Since the popular vote competition is informal, each side will pick its own rules. Mrs. Clinton has said that MIchigan and Florida should count. Florida gives her 288 thousand and Michigan gives her a 90 thousand margin over Uncommitted, though she will point out that it gives her 328 thousand more people than voted for Obama, who wasn't on the ballot. That's 616 thousand from those two states,using Clinton-supporter math.
RealClearPolitics gave Obama a lead of 827 thousand before Pennsylvania. Subtract the 106 thousand that's just attributed to Obama from caucus states but are not actual votes, to get 721 thousand. Subtract Florida and Michigan to get 105 thousand. Now subtract Clinton's 205 thousand margin from Pennsylvania, and she's ahead nationally by 100,000 votes. She doesn't need Puerto Rico any more to claim victory.
I've posted this with additional comments at
http://rasmusen.org/t/2008/04/hilary-clinton-is-winning-popular-vote.html
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