McCain's Poll Numbers Are Breaking the Idea of Traditional Red and Blue States
I've been saying most of this year that it's time to throw out that old electoral map of red states and blue states. Fresh evidence for this comes from Scott Rasmussen's recent state polls. Marist has a John McCain-Condoleezza Rice ticket beating a Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama ticket in New York 49 percent to 46 percent and a McCain-Rice ticket beating an Obama-Clinton ticket there 49 percent to 44 percent. I'm pretty sure McCain is not going to ask Rice to be his running mate; he can't approve of her work as national security adviser when the Bush administration refused to follow his recommendation for a surge of troops in 2003 and 2004. But for McCain to be leading the Democrats' dream tickets (at least some Democrats think that's what one of those two is) in a state John Kerry carried by a 59 percent to 40 percent margin is pretty striking.
Then consider the Rasmussen polls in several western states, where Obama is either leading or trailing McCain by narrow margins. I'll put the percentages for Bush-Kerry in the adjacent columns.
| McCain | Obama | Bush | Kerry | |
| Alaska | 48 | 43 | 61 | 36 |
| Colorado | 46 | 46 | 52 | 47 |
| Montana | 48 | 43 | 59 | 39 |
| Nevada | 41 | 45 | 50 | 48 |
| New Mexico | 42 | 45 | 50 | 49 |
| Oregon | 42 | 48 | 47 | 51 |
| Washington | 43 | 48 | 46 | 53 |
In Oregon and Washington, the balance is similar to that in 2004. But McCain is plainly weaker than Bush—or Obama stronger than Kerry, in the other five. If Alaska is going to be a target state, what state isn't?
In contrast, McCain seems to be running better than Bush (or just about the same) in Rasmussen polls in some of the large states that were seriously contested in 2000 and 2004.
| Florida | 47 | 43 | 52 | 47 |
| Michigan | 43 | 42 | 48 | 51 |
| New Jersey | 46 | 45 | 46 | 53 |
| Ohio | 47 | 40 | 51 | 49 |
| Pennsylvania | 44 | 43 | 48 | 51 |
So the westerner McCain is running behind the Texan Bush in the West, while in an economy threatened with recession he's running better than Bush in some big industrial states. Very interesting.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Condoleezza Rice | John McCain | polls | Rasmussen Report
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Reader Comments
HIDDEN AGENDA
OBAMA HAS A HIDDEN AGENDA FOR THIS COUNTRY,AND WILL DO OR SAY ANYTHING TO WIN.DO NOT TRUST THIS MAN.LOOK AT HIS HISTORY
AND GET THE FACTS.
Barrack Obamma
I will never vote for Barrack Obamma because he is politically immature. By that I mean that his political career is just beginning. He has so many more years before he can claim any major accomplishments. You do not begin a career at the very top you are suppose to work your way to the top and learn from experience as you go. John McCain has spent most of his life working hard in the senate and learning through his experiences.
I believe he has earned the chance to be our next president. I do not want a rookie for my president. I want an accomplished individual who has rightfully earned and worked his way through years of accomplishments and service to our country.
Robert Gallaway
Richmond, VA
Presidential Race
I am an independent voter, and I believe Barrack Obamma will not win the Presidency. I believe there are many who will be voting that have not been polled and I think the majority of those voters will be voting for McCain-Palin.
With the exception of course of California, most likely New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, possibly New Jersey, Hawaii, Maine, Oregon, Vermont and maybe Nevada I believe Senator Mccain will will the rest of the states and be elected our next president.
I also believe he rightfully deserves to be our next President. He has spent so many years serving our country in every way possible, has the experiences, toughness, good judgement and wisdom to handle this job and oppossed to someone who has been in the senate all but 100 weeks, is too far to the left to appeal to the majority of Americans and just has not spent enough time in the political arena to jump straight to the top without the experience of a real learning process.
I am trying to understand how someone who has spent the majority of his political career writing books and running for President than accomplishing real change for our county.
Anybody with a mouth can talk. Lets look at the record for the facts and see just exactly what kind of change Obamma has brought to the senate.
Has he reached across party lines as McCain? Has he ever gone against popular opinion once during his time in the senate? Are any Americans better off in the lives due to his idealogy or voting record. The answer to all of these questions is absolutely not. His resume is not impressive, at least not for the most powerful position in the world.
I grant you Obamma is education and a smooth speaker, but talk is cheap. Again, I say....Let me see what you have done for the American people during your 100 weeks in the Senate.
I can think of many more democrats more qualified to be the presidential nominee. Obamma has a lot more to prove besides besides the fact that he is a good talker before I will be convinced he is qualified to run our country.
Cynthis Jameson
Vero Beach, FL
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