Monday, November 9, 2009

Opinion

Michael Barone

Clinton's Sag in the Polls Makes Big Pennsylvania Win Unlikely

April 08, 2008 05:35 PM ET | Michael Barone | Permanent Link | Print

Reader Comments

Vote For the Next Generation

Ask yourself these questions. Do you want your daughters and son to be drafted for another senseless war? If there was a chance for us to have peace, what face do you think the Middle-Eastern countries would feel more comfortable talking to? Do you want to lose your homes, jobs or pensions? Are you tired of living in fear? All of these questions will affect your children and grandchildren 4 to 8 years from now. If we keep going into the direction that we are headed, the issues of racism won't be about how white or black you are. You will be descriminated based on how poor or rich are you? You will either be classified as rich or poor. The middle class family will soon cease to exist. This year’s election is not about what you can do for you but what you can do for your children and grandchildren.

I am truly perplexed. We have a President who does not care one whit about the American people. It is obvious he has been bullheaded and has lied repeatedly. Why would we want to do the same thing again? Why? Has anyone really paid attention to Hillary Clinton and her husband. They have tried everything underhanded that they. Yes. She is a very bright woman. I know many bright woman... any of whom I would vote for before her. She has lied repeatedly. She has used whatever underhanded tactics she can to discredit Barack Obama. She has surrounded herself with people who care more about politics and what they can gain (for the most part), than they do about the American people. We are getting a very familiar ring here. Barack Obama, from all that I have seen, has tried to run a decent, honest, above board campaign. He really has not been more of the same ol' same ol'. I am a 62 year old, white, Catholic (until the child sex abuse scandal) woman, who comes from a very blue collar background. I have lived in the South as well as the Northeast. Believe me, I have experienced my share of poverty, lack of health care for my kids, at times not knowing where our next meal would come from, been a single parent, etc. etc. etc. Yet, I would no more vote for a person who feels lying and being underhanded is the way to run this country, than I would elect to go back to abject poverty. At this point in our history we are truly at a critical juncture with extremely serious problems facing our planet, as well as very serious problems here at home. Our credibility in the world is at an all time low. Do we really want someone who is so fractious and divisive as our president in these times? Please, someone, explain to me how and why we seem to be locked into a mindset that is at complete odds with our well being. Please, really look at Senator Clinton's words and actions as a whole picture. Please, don't see as a woman candidate, our a 'good fighter' (did I mention I am of Irish descent as well and can appreciate be a fighter as much as anyone), or a policy wonk. Look at her character. Would you want to work for a boss like her? We need a president who is a person of integrity. Someone who is thoughtful and challenges us to be better than we are... not less than. Obviously, I support Barack Obama. But, I have looked very, very closely at this entire campaign. Please America, let's all wake up, roll up our sleeves and do the hard work required of us to move all of us forward. Barack Obama can lead us in a direction we need to go... and he asks us to be full participants in our life's destiny.

I am truly perplexed. We have a President who does not care one whit about the American people. It is obvious he has been bullheaded and has lied repeatedly. Why would we want to do the same thing again? Why? Has anyone really paid attention to Hillary Clinton and her husband. They have tried everything underhanded that they. Yes. She is a very bright woman. I know many bright woman... any of whom I would vote for before her. She has lied repeatedly. She has used whatever underhanded tactics she can to discredit Barack Obama. She has surrounded herself with people who care more about politics and what they can gain (for the most part), than they do about the American people. We are getting a very familiar ring here. Barack Obama, from all that I have seen, has tried to run a decent, honest, above board campaign. He really has not been more of the same ol' same ol'. I am a 62 year old, white, Catholic (until the child sex abuse scandal) woman, who comes from a very blue collar background. I have lived in the South as well as the Northeast. Believe me, I have experienced my share of poverty, lack of health care for my kids, at times not knowing where our next meal would come from, been a single parent, etc. etc. etc. Yet, I would no more vote for a person who feels lying and being underhanded is the way to run this country, than I would elect to go back to abject poverty. At this point in our history we are truly at a critical juncture with extremely serious problems facing our planet, as well as very serious problems here at home. Our credibility in the world is at an all time low. Do we really want someone who is so fractious and divisive as our president in these times? Please, someone, explain to me how and why we seem to be locked into a mindset that is at complete odds with our well being. Please, really look at Senator Clinton's words and actions as a whole picture. Please, don't see as a woman candidate, our a 'good fighter' (did I mention I am of Irish descent as well and can appreciate be a fighter as much as anyone), or a policy wonk. Look at her character. Would you want to work for a boss like her? We need a president who is a person of integrity. Someone who is thoughtful and challenges us to be better than we are... not less than. Obviously, I support Barack Obama. But, I have looked very, very closely at this entire campaign. Please America, let's all wake up, roll up our sleeves and do the hard work required of us to move all of us forward. Barack Obama can lead us in a direction we need to go... and he asks us to be full participants in our life's destiny.

......hehe

Obama will win. Why whine? Be happy that we will have a pres. who can string a sentence together! Maybe we will even reclaim a bit of dignity as a country.

...Maybe

Reclaiming the White House ...

Hillary Clinton has been masterminding and preparing America for a ‘Great Fall.’

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GC01Df03.html

America, awaken from your deep slumber, “It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit.” Noel Coward

glasnost

Wow, the anti-obama trolls are quite the swarm here. I wonder how many of them are astroturf? For the uninformed folks, astroturf = paid by political organizations to smear people on internet comment boards. It really happens.

You know the far right is desperate and out of Ammo with Obama. And why do you know? Because they're reduced to fabricating a lost list of Barack Obama's supposed friends and then churning out hit pieces on the evilness of Obama's alledged friends. They've got nothing on the guy himself. If George Bush can snort cocaine and skip on his national guard service, I think Obama can get away with having a preacher who once said something mean about America.

OBAMA WILL BE PRESIDENT

You people can rant and rave all day long and it wont help your case. You might as well just shut up and quit your complaining, because Obama WILL BE PRESIDENT AND YOU CANT DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT. So as Bill Clinton told the Democratic Party: "Just chill out".

HE WILL WIN

I dont want to get into a "nasty" argument with any of you. I just want to advise you that Barack Obama will win the nomination, and WILL go on to win the President of the United States. You can whine, argue, complain, or whatever you want to do, but this is inevitable, and you can dont anything to stop it. So dont let all these other people upset you with their ranting and ravings......you will have the last laugh on them. Just sit back, watch....wait....and you WILL WIN.

Election

I hope the people in Pennsylvania are able to focus on Obama. Learn about his character.

Republic in 07 reported that Obama's pastor was a Muslim. It was never reported in the media until Rush pointed that out yesterday. Obama talks a good game such as he has good judgment. He listened to Wright for 20 years and took his children to listen to him at church. Exposing them to hatred. That is the reason why there is so much hatred in the world because of Wright and people like him.

I heard Obama was also connected to a terrorist in the US> Why isn't this reported by the media. The only thing people is see expensive commercials on TV how great Obama is. I am voiting for Hillary Clinton or John McCain At least I know who they are

The polling also shows

late breakers tend to vote Clinton where she leads the polls. Contrary to conventional media wisdom this year, late breakers don't break for Obama. They break for the candidate who is currently in the lead in that state. That happened for Hillary in Texas and California, and for Obama in Wisconsin, just to name a few examples.

Most of the polls that show a smallish difference between the two candidates show large numbers of "undecided". The polls with large differences show a small number of undecideds.

I have been trying to make sense of the poll numbers this year, and that seems to be the pattern. The undecideds vote the candidate favored by the state as a whole, and Hillary's win will be larger than the current RCP average.

In addition, she doesn't need to in by 20%. If the turnout runs true, she can win by a smaller percentage, and she cuts majorly in to Obama's "popular" vote lead (which is currently statistically insignificant).

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Michael Barone is a senior writer for U.S.News & World Report and principal coauthor of The Almanac of American Politics. He has written for many publications—including the Economist and the New York Times.

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