Clinton's Sag in the Polls Makes Big Pennsylvania Win Unlikely
A little more than a week ago, I presented some projections for the upcoming Democratic primaries. I projected results that seemed realistic from the then current polling but also optimistic from Hillary Clinton's point of view. Recent polling suggests those projections are no longer realistic.
My projection had Clinton winning 60 percent of the two-candidate vote in Pennsylvania. But in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent Pennsylvania polls, she's getting only 54 percent of the two-candidate vote. Obama is clearly leading in Philadelphia, where blacks will make up about half of the electorate; Quinnipiac has Obama ahead in the Philadelphia suburbs, but SurveyUSA has metro Philadelphia even, which must mean that Clinton is ahead in the suburbs.
My projection had Obama winning 55 percent of the two-candidate vote in North Carolina. Current polling gives Obama 61 percent of the two-candidate vote there. Curiously, the share of undecideds in North Carolina averages 20 percent, compared with 10 percent in Pennsylvania. Perhaps this just reflects the much heavier campaigning in Pennsylvania in recent weeks.
In both Pennsylvania and North Carolina, we have seen the same kinds of surges of support to Obama in periods when he was heavily outspending Clinton on television as we saw in similar periods in Ohio and Texas. In Texas, Obama seemed to seize the lead, while in Ohio, Clinton seemed to maintain a small lead. In both states, Clinton seemed to get an uptick just before the primary, and she ended up with 55 percent of the two-candidate vote in Ohio and 52 percent of the two-candidate vote in Texas.
Can she do the same in Pennsylvania? I think she needs to. If she gets only 54 percent of the two-candidate vote in Pennsylvania April 22 and if polling shows Obama running away with North Carolina and being competitive in Indiana, there could be a cascade of superdelegates toward Obama. Even if there isn't, a similar phenomenon could occur if Obama wins North Carolina by anything like his current margins in the polls and especially if he wins in Indiana as well. I still think Clinton is set to carry Kentucky and West Virginia by wide margins. And Puerto Rico, with 2.5 million voters, 80 percent of whom turn out in Puerto Rico elections, remains a huge question mark. But will she get there?
Tags: presidential election 2008 | primaries | Hillary Clinton | polls | Pennsylvania
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Ask yourself these questions. Do you want your daughters and son to be drafted for another senseless war? If there was a chance for us to have peace, what face do you think the Middle-Eastern countries would feel more comfortable talking to? Do you want to lose your homes, jobs or pensions? Are you tired of living in fear? All of these questions will affect your children and grandchildren 4 to 8 years from now. If we keep going into the direction that we are headed, the issues of racism won't be about how white or black you are. You will be descriminated based on how poor or rich are you? You will either be classified as rich or poor. The middle class family will soon cease to exist. This year’s election is not about what you can do for you but what you can do for your children and grandchildren.
I am truly perplexed. We have a President who does not care one whit about the American people. It is obvious he has been bullheaded and has lied repeatedly. Why would we want to do the same thing again? Why? Has anyone really paid attention to Hillary Clinton and her husband. They have tried everything underhanded that they. Yes. She is a very bright woman. I know many bright woman... any of whom I would vote for before her. She has lied repeatedly. She has used whatever underhanded tactics she can to discredit Barack Obama. She has surrounded herself with people who care more about politics and what they can gain (for the most part), than they do about the American people. We are getting a very familiar ring here. Barack Obama, from all that I have seen, has tried to run a decent, honest, above board campaign. He really has not been more of the same ol' same ol'. I am a 62 year old, white, Catholic (until the child sex abuse scandal) woman, who comes from a very blue collar background. I have lived in the South as well as the Northeast. Believe me, I have experienced my share of poverty, lack of health care for my kids, at times not knowing where our next meal would come from, been a single parent, etc. etc. etc. Yet, I would no more vote for a person who feels lying and being underhanded is the way to run this country, than I would elect to go back to abject poverty. At this point in our history we are truly at a critical juncture with extremely serious problems facing our planet, as well as very serious problems here at home. Our credibility in the world is at an all time low. Do we really want someone who is so fractious and divisive as our president in these times? Please, someone, explain to me how and why we seem to be locked into a mindset that is at complete odds with our well being. Please, really look at Senator Clinton's words and actions as a whole picture. Please, don't see as a woman candidate, our a 'good fighter' (did I mention I am of Irish descent as well and can appreciate be a fighter as much as anyone), or a policy wonk. Look at her character. Would you want to work for a boss like her? We need a president who is a person of integrity. Someone who is thoughtful and challenges us to be better than we are... not less than. Obviously, I support Barack Obama. But, I have looked very, very closely at this entire campaign. Please America, let's all wake up, roll up our sleeves and do the hard work required of us to move all of us forward. Barack Obama can lead us in a direction we need to go... and he asks us to be full participants in our life's destiny.
I am truly perplexed. We have a President who does not care one whit about the American people. It is obvious he has been bullheaded and has lied repeatedly. Why would we want to do the same thing again? Why? Has anyone really paid attention to Hillary Clinton and her husband. They have tried everything underhanded that they. Yes. She is a very bright woman. I know many bright woman... any of whom I would vote for before her. She has lied repeatedly. She has used whatever underhanded tactics she can to discredit Barack Obama. She has surrounded herself with people who care more about politics and what they can gain (for the most part), than they do about the American people. We are getting a very familiar ring here. Barack Obama, from all that I have seen, has tried to run a decent, honest, above board campaign. He really has not been more of the same ol' same ol'. I am a 62 year old, white, Catholic (until the child sex abuse scandal) woman, who comes from a very blue collar background. I have lived in the South as well as the Northeast. Believe me, I have experienced my share of poverty, lack of health care for my kids, at times not knowing where our next meal would come from, been a single parent, etc. etc. etc. Yet, I would no more vote for a person who feels lying and being underhanded is the way to run this country, than I would elect to go back to abject poverty. At this point in our history we are truly at a critical juncture with extremely serious problems facing our planet, as well as very serious problems here at home. Our credibility in the world is at an all time low. Do we really want someone who is so fractious and divisive as our president in these times? Please, someone, explain to me how and why we seem to be locked into a mindset that is at complete odds with our well being. Please, really look at Senator Clinton's words and actions as a whole picture. Please, don't see as a woman candidate, our a 'good fighter' (did I mention I am of Irish descent as well and can appreciate be a fighter as much as anyone), or a policy wonk. Look at her character. Would you want to work for a boss like her? We need a president who is a person of integrity. Someone who is thoughtful and challenges us to be better than we are... not less than. Obviously, I support Barack Obama. But, I have looked very, very closely at this entire campaign. Please America, let's all wake up, roll up our sleeves and do the hard work required of us to move all of us forward. Barack Obama can lead us in a direction we need to go... and he asks us to be full participants in our life's destiny.
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